Well, there's good news and bad news. The bad news is that I went 6-7 ATS on my picks in Week 12. However, the good news is that I went 3-2 ATS on my locks of the week, which claws us back over .500 on the season in that category. Want even more good news? It's Thanksgiving week! That means we get an onslaught of football to pair with our turkey and stuffing, with NFL games on Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday. What better way to spend the holiday weekend surrounded by friends, family, and a full stack of bets, right?
Wishing you all a wonderful holiday, and let's try to manifest this thankful and jubilant energy into some winners to build up our Christmas bankroll. Let's roll!
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 28-27
ATS: 81-95-3
ML: 113-66
All betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the latest DraftKings promo code to get in the game.
Bears at Lions
- Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Let's get things started with the first game on the Thanksgiving slate. If you've been following my picks throughout the season, you know that we are not scared away from laying big numbers when it comes to the Lions. They don't like to just win, but they want to blow teams out of the water. That's particularly true at home, where they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games at Ford Field and have covered the spread by an average of 22.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bears struggle mightily on the road, owning a 1-5 ATS record over their last six games away from Soldier Field. Let's not overthink this one too much.
Projected score: Lions 33, Bears 20
The pick: Lions -10.5
49ers at Bills
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
We still don't know the status of Brock Purdy at the time I'm writing this, but I'll assume he plays. I still like the Bills in a big way. This 49ers team is banged up more than just at quarterback, but Purdy likely isn't going to be 100%. And we expect him to be able to go toe-to-toe with Josh Allen after he had a week off? That seems like a tall task. In their last nine games coming off of a bye week, the Bills are 9-0 straight-up, with an average point differential of plus-8.2. The Bills could end up playing for the AFC East crown in this game if Miami falls to the Packers on Thanksgiving, giving them even more motivation on top of still vying for the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Projected score: Bills 30, 49ers 21
The pick: Bills -7
Chargers at Falcons
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chargers are going to be at a major rest disadvantage for this game. After taking on a physical Ravens team on Monday night, they are playing on a short week and needing to travel across the country to take on a Falcons club that is coming off their bye week. Sure, the Falcons limped into the bye on a two-game losing skid, but they are primed for a bounce back in a key game as they look to keep the Buccaneers at arm's length in the NFC South race. This could prove to be a game where Atlanta looks to lean on its backfield tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier as the Chargers are allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season. That's tied for the fourth-highest in the league.
Projected score: Falcons 24, Chargers 21
The pick: Falcons +1
Raiders at Chiefs
- Friday, 3 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
It looks like Aidan O'Connell is going to get the nod for the Raiders after Gardner Minshew went down for the year with a broken collarbone. O'Connell is just coming off injured reserve himself, so he'll likely be shaking off rust on a short week against the defending Super Bowl champions, which is why we see nearly a two-touchdown spread. The Chiefs have been entrenched in one-score games throughout the season and have come out on top each time but have yet to truly dominate. Patrick Mahomes even admitted on Sunday that he "would love to win a game not by the very last play," and I think he will get his wish this week. The Raiders are allowing opponents to score on 64.2% of their red zone trips this season, which is in the bottom 10 in the league. They also struggle on third down, meaning the Chiefs should be able to go on extended drives that result in touchdowns. Given what Las Vegas has on offense, this shouldn't be close.
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Raiders 16
The pick: Chiefs -13
Bonus bet: SportsLine gambling guru Mike Tierney, who is on an 11-3 roll on Raiders games, has released his best bets for the Week 13 Raiders vs. Chiefs matchup. We can tell you he's leaning Over but what is his prediction ATS?
Giants at Cowboys
- Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Giants are a mess right now, and it seems like everyone is pointing fingers inside that locker room. Meanwhile, the pivot to Tommy DeVito at quarterback didn't provide any sort of boost offensively in a blowout loss at home to the Buccaneers on Sunday. Against a Micah Parsons-led Cowboys defense, I expect those struggles to continue as New York heads to Dallas on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are one of just two teams not to have an ATS win at home this season, but I expect that to change here. Cooper Rush has been solid over the last two weeks and should be able to move the ball against a Giants defense that is giving up 5.8 yards per play this year (fourth-highest in the NFL).
Projected score: Cowboys 24, Giants 17
The pick: Cowboys -4
Rest of the bunch
Dolphins at Packers
Projected score: Packers 27, Dolphins 21
The pick: Packers -3
Cardinals at Vikings
Projected score: Cardinals 24, Vikings 21
The pick: Cardinals +3.5
Texans at Jaguars
Projected score: Texans 27, Jaguars 23
The pick: Jaguars +5
Steelers at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 27, Steelers 24
The pick: Bengals -2.5
Seahawks at Jets
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Jets 20
The pick: Seahawks -2.5
Titans at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 27, Titans 20
The pick: Commanders -5.5
Colts at Patriots
Projected score: Patriots 21, Colts 17
The pick: Patriots +2.5
Buccaneers at Panthers
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Buccaneers -6
Rams at Saints
Projected score: Rams 27, Saints 21
The pick: Rams -3
Eagles at Ravens
Projected score: Eagles 27, Ravens 24
The pick: Eagles +3
Browns at Broncos (Monday)
Projected score: Broncos 27, Browns 17
The pick: Broncos -5.5
