As the weather gets colder, the playoff race in the NFL is heating up. Just four weeks remain in the 2024 regular season, and we just came out of our final slate that featured bye weeks, so from now until Week 18, it'll be a mad dash to the finish line. Even with this short time remaining in the regular season, there's a lot to be determined with just two divisions already locked up, both in the AFC. Not only that, but only four teams have at least clinched a playoff berth.
This sets up what should be a very entertaining final stretch of the season and quite the stage to wager on. As we turn our attention to the upcoming Week 15 slate, we will take our first look at the odds and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the betting markets believe will come out on top.
Week 15 early odds
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
49ers -2 | 48.5 | Rams +109, 49ers -130 | |
Ravens -14.5 | 43.5 | Ravens -1111, Giants +705 | |
Panthers -1 | 42.5 | Cowboys +102, Panthers -122 | |
Chiefs -6.5 | 43.5 | Chiefs -299, Browns +241 | |
Texans -2.5 | 47 | Dolphins +115, Texans -137 | |
Jets -3 | 39.5 | Jets -178, Jaguars +148 | |
Commanders at Saints | Commanders -7.5 | 43 | Commanders -369, Saints +292 |
Bengals -5 | 48 | Bengals -229, Titans +188 | |
Broncos -4.5 | 43 | Colts +179, Broncos -218 | |
Eagles -5 | 43.5 | Steelers +191, Eagles -231 | |
Chargers -2.5 | 46.5 | Buccaneers +124, Chargers -148 | |
Cardinals -6.5 | 45 | Patriots +227, Cardinals -281 | |
Lions -2.5 | 53.5 | Bills +120, Lions -143 | |
Packers -2.5 | 47 | Packers -141, Seahawks +118 | |
Vikings -7 | 43.5 | Bears +249, Vikings -314 | |
Falcons -4.5 | 43.5 | Falcons -222, Raiders +183 |
Notable movement, trends
Rams at 49ers (Thursday)
The 49ers opened as a 2-point favorite, and that has since moved up a touch to -2.5, knocking on the door of a full field goal. This is a monumental game for both clubs as they cling to hopes of staying in the division race, but more for Los Angeles, who is a game back of Seattle for first place. San Francisco is 4-3 ATS at home this season but has struggled in division play. Against the NFC West, the Niners are 1-3 ATS. As for the Rams, they are 3-3 ATS on the road.
Ravens at Giants
Baltimore is the biggest favorite on the Week 15 slate. Initially, they opened laying 13.5 points on the road against the Giants, and that has since crossed over the two-touchdown threshold as they are now surrendering 14.5 points at kickoff. Baltimore was on its bye in Week 14, so it will be well rested against New York. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 10-9 ATS after a bye week. However, Baltimore is also 4-2 ATS as a road favorite this season. Meanwhile, the Giants are 2-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Cowboys at Panthers
Dallas still has its Week 14 matchup with Cincinnati to play on Monday night, but the Cowboys find themselves now an underdog for their upcoming road matchup against Carolina. This is quite the swing after the Cowboys opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but have now seen the Panthers become the favorite and are laying a point. Carolina kept it close and covered against the Eagles last week, and Bryce Young has been playing some of the best football of his young career. That's helped them move to 6-7 ATS on the season. Dallas is 3-3 ATS on the road.
Chiefs at Browns
Kansas City is coming off yet another last-second win, kicking a game-winning field goal to skip past the Chargers on Sunday night. Now, the Chiefs are a 6.5-point favorite over the Browns after the line opened at Chiefs -6. The defending champs are just 5-8 ATS this season, and their average margin of victory is 4.3 points, so this is a lofty line as a road favorite. The Browns are 2-2 ATS as a home underdog this season.
Dolphins at Texans
The Texans are coming off their bye week and sitting as a 2.5-point favorite after this line opened at Texans -2. The Dolphins survived an overtime matchup against the Jets to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, while Houston is looking to solidify its position atop the AFC South down the stretch. Houston hasn't been a particularly strong bet this season, owning a 5-6-2 ATS record overall, which includes a 2-3-1 mark at home. The Dolphins haven't been much better on the road, however, as they are 3-3 ATS away from Hard Rock Stadium.
Jets at Jaguars
New York was getting the field goal and the hook at the open, but the line has ticked down to the Jets -3. Sitting as a road favorite hasn't been a favorable spot for the Jets this season, as they are 1-3 ATS in that setting in 2024. Overall, they are 2-4 ATS on the road, and that 33.3% cover rate is tied for the fourth lowest in the league. As for the Jags, they are 2-2-1 ATS at home this year and have fared well as a home dog, owning a 2-0-1 ATS record in that spot.
Commanders at Saints
This line has shifted rather dramatically. New Orleans was initially a 2.5-point favorite. That has rapidly moved toward Washington as the Commanders are now laying 7.5 points in this matchup. A key factor in this swing is Saints quarterback Derek Carr being feared to have suffered a fractured left hand, which puts his status in doubt. Washington is coming off its bye week and is 3-2-1 ATS on the road this season and covered its lone game as a road favorite.
Bengals at Titans
Cincinnati still has its game against Dallas on Monday to play, but the team has moved out to a 5-point favorite in Week 15 against the Titans after the line opened at Bengals -3.5. Tennessee has consistently been the worst team to back from a betting standpoint this season, owning a league-worst 2-11 ATS record. The Titans are also the only team in the NFL that has yet to record an ATS win at home (0-6).
Colts at Broncos
Both of these teams were on a bye in Week 14, so there won't be any significant rest advantages here. Given that, it's not surprising to learn that the line hasn't moved since it opened at Broncos -4.5. This is a massive game in terms of the wild-card race in the AFC, with Denver holding onto the No. 7 seed with a two-game lead over both Indy and Miami. If the Colts were to upset the Broncos, they'd be just a game back with the head-to-head tiebreaker in their pocket. That said, Denver has been solid at home this season with a 4-2 ATS record. Indy is 4-3 ATS away from Lucas Oil Stadium.
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model reveals its top Week 15 NFL parlay picks. Check out the computer's best five-team parlay at SportsLine.
Steelers at Eagles
The Eagles have jumped out as a 5-point favorite after the line initially opened at Eagles -4.5. Both of these teams have been among the very best to back this season on the betting markets. Pittsburgh is tied for the best ATS record in the league at 10-3 ATS, while Philadelphia isn't far behind at 8-5 ATS. That said, while the Eagles have a good overall ATS record, that's largely come on the road. At home, the Eagles are just 1-4 ATS. Meanwhile, the Steelers are 5-2 ATS on the road.
Buccaneers at Chargers
The Chargers opened as a field goal favorite, but that has since fallen below that key number to -2.5. The Buccaneers pulled out in front to take over first place in the NFC South, thanks to their win on Sunday and Atlanta's loss to Minnesota and will look to hold that position as they head out on the road. As a road team, the Bucs are 4-2 ATS this season. However, the Chargers have also been strong at home, with a 4-2 ATS record at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles is also 3-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.
Patriots at Cardinals
New England will have the rest advantage over Arizona coming off the bye in Week 14, but that hasn't impacted the line much. The Cardinals opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and that has held throughout the weekend. Arizona is 8-5 ATS this season and 4-3 ATS at home. In non-conference games, the Cards are a pristine 4-0 ATS. As for the Patriots, they are 5-7-1 ATS on the year, which includes a 3-3 ATS mark on the road.
Bills at Lions
We have ourselves a potential Super Bowl preview in the late window as the Bills will visit the Lions. Detroit opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and that has held coming out of Week 14. After playing on Thursday, the Lions will have a rest advantage over the Bills, who lost in a shootout to the Rams on the road. The Lions have covered their lone game this season where they've owned the rest advantage, while the Bills are 1-1 ATS when they have the disadvantage. At home, the Lions are 4-3 ATS this season, while the Bills have an identical 4-3 ATS record on the road.
Packers at Seahawks
Green Bay opened as a 1-point favorite in this head-to-head, and that has since increased to 2.5 points. Sitting as a road favorite hasn't worked out particularly well for Green Bay this season, as the Packers are 1-2 ATS in this spot. Overall, they are 3-2 ATS on the road this season. As for the Seahawks, they've struggled at Lumen Field this year and are 2-5 ATS at home, which includes a 1-3 ATS record as a home underdog.
Bears at Vikings (Monday)
The Bears surprisingly opened as a 1-point favorite in this game, but the market has since corrected that, with the Vikings now sitting as a 7-point favorite at home. Chicago was trounced by the 49ers on Sunday in their first game since firing head coach Matt Eberflus. Meanwhile, the Vikings enjoyed a five-touchdown performance from Sam Darnold. Minnesota is 4-2 ATS at home this season with a 10.2-point average margin of victory. Meanwhile, the Bears are 1-4-1 ATS on the road.
Falcons at Raiders (Monday)
The Falcons are looking to rebound after falling out of first place in the NFC South and should have a soft matchup to do just that. They opened as a field goal favorite over the Raiders, and the line has continued to move in their favor, laying 4.5 points as a road favorite. This comes as Las Vegas starter Aidan O'Connell was carted off of Sunday's loss to the Bucs due to a knee injury, leaving his status in serious doubt. The Falcons are 3-3 ATS on the road this season and 2-1 ATS as a road favorite. As for Las Vegas, it is 2-3 ATS at home.
