The 2024 regular season is coming down to the wire. With the Christmas holiday on the horizon, teams are continuing to jockey for playoff position, heating things to a fever pitch. We've also gotten hot as of late in our betting window that we've carved out here on the internet. Over the last three weeks, I've gone 27-17-1 ATS and 34-11 straight up on my picks.
While we'll certainly take that, I'll look to get us over .500 on the year when it comes to my five locks of the week. There, I'm highlighting two divisional matchups while also backing three road favorites.
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 33-35-1
ATS: 108-112-4
ML: 147-77
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
Steelers at Ravens
- Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
I was burned last week by backing the Steelers with the points and on the moneyline against Philadelphia, but it's not stopping me from going back to the well. This is as close to a playoff atmosphere as these teams could get, as Baltimore needs this game to remain in the hunt for the AFC North crown. Pittsburgh muscled out a win against the Ravens earlier this season and was largely able to keep Derrick Henry in check. The Steelers are holding teams to just 4.0 yards per carry, which is the third fewest in the league. If they can keep that up, it takes away a key aspect of Baltimore's offense. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson doesn't have the strongest history against Pittsburgh. Against this division foe, Jackson is 2-5 with a 66.7 passer rating. Meanwhile, the Steelers are 5-3 ATS on the road this year, while the Ravens are 2-3-1 ATS at home.
Projected score: Steelers 23, Ravens 20
The pick: Steelers +6
Rams at Jets
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Don't be fooled by the offensive outburst by Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense last week. You have to factor in the opponent. The Jaguars are terrible, giving up the fourth-most points in the league entering Week 16. Now, they head back to MetLife Stadium, where they are 2-4 ATS, and face a much tougher task in the Rams, who are rocketing toward a playoff berth. Los Angeles' defense has played better as of late, and the four-headed offensive attack led by Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams will be too much to handle for a Jets defense that just allowed Mac Jones and the Jaguars offense to post 25 points. The Rams, who are 3-0 ATS as a road favorite, also have the rest advantage after playing last Thursday.
Projected score: Rams 27, Jets 17
The pick: Rams -3
Patriots at Bills
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is probably going to close as the biggest spread on the Week 16 slate, and for good reason. Buffalo heads home after flexing its Super Bowl muscles in a road win over the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the Patriots are lifeless, currently situated at 3-11 on the year and in line for another top-three pick at the NFL Draft. New England rolled over coming out of the bye in Arizona, further exploiting the cracks throughout the organizational masthead. They're walking into a buzzsaw in the Bills, who still have hopes of leaping to the No. 1 seed, especially with Patrick Mahomes now dinged up in Kansas City. Buffalo is 4-2 ATS on the season at home and has an average margin of victory of 17.3 points at Highmark Stadium in 2024. This doesn't feel like it'll be remotely close.
Projected score: Bills 33, Patriots 16
The pick: Bills -14
Vikings at Seahawks
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Did you hear Lumen Field on Sunday night? Packers fans engulfed the stadium, which is the latest example of how much this home-field advantage has deteriorated for Seattle. This season, the Seahawks are 2-6 ATS at home and include a 1-4 ATS mark as home underdogs, which they find themselves as in this matchup with Minnesota. The Vikings haven't been world-beaters on the road this year (3-2-1 ATS and 2-2-1 ATS as road favorites), but they have way more juice to them than Seattle does right now. Meanwhile, the Seahawks will either be playing a banged-up Geno Smith for this game or opt for backup Sam Howell. Either way, Minnesota has a massive advantage offensively.
Projected score: Vikings 24, Seahawks 20
The pick: Vikings -3.5
Buccaneers at Cowboys
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
Good on the Cowboys to use the motivation of being underdogs to the Panthers to earn the upset win last week, but they are still not a trustworthy bet. That's especially true as they head back to AT&T Stadium, where they've been awful against the number. This season, the Cowboys are 1-6 ATS at home, with their 14.3% cover rate sitting as the second worst in the league, only looking down to the Titans, who have yet to record an ATS win at home. On the flip side, the Buccaneers are surging. They've won four straight to jump to first place in the NFC South and will need to keep the winning up to fend off Atlanta. Given that motivation and the fact that Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS on the road this season (2-1 ATS as a road favorite), we'll lay the points.
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 20
The pick: Buccaneers -4
Rest of the bunch
Broncos at Chargers (Thursday)
Projected score: Broncos 23, Chargers 20
The pick: Broncos +3
Texans at Chiefs (Saturday)
Projected score: Chiefs 24, Texans 23
The pick: Chiefs +2
Cardinals at Panthers
Projected score: Cardinals 26, Panthers 17
The pick: Cardinals -4
Browns at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 30, Browns 17
The pick: Bengals -7
Lions at Bears
Projected score: Lions 27, Bears 20
The pick: Lions -6.5
Giants at Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 27, Giants 16
The pick: Falcons -9.5
Eagles at Commanders
Projected score: Eagles 30, Commanders 24
The pick: Eagles -3
Titans at Colts
Projected score: Colts 25, Titans 20
The pick: Colts -4.5
Jaguars at Raiders
Projected score: Jaguars 20, Raiders 17
The pick: Jaguars -1
49ers at Dolphins
Projected score: 49ers 27, Dolphins 24
The pick: 49ers +1.5
Saints at Packers (Monday)
Projected score: Packers 28, Saints 14
The pick: Packers -13.5
