We have a week under our belts and certainly took our lumps to begin the year. While not an unmitigated disaster, the opening slate did zig when we expected it to zag in certain respects. Like many, we fell victim to yet another sleepy start to the year from Cincinnati, which was upset at home by New England. Also, the debut of Kirk Cousins with Atlanta didn't inject that burst of life into the offense like many, including yours truly, anticipated.
Still, we had some solid wins among the opening slate, including the Chiefs handling the Ravens in the opener and Minnesota throttling the Giants on the road. Of course, it's important not to swing too drastically after seeing just one game from these clubs to begin the season, but Week 1 did give us some lessons we'll be taking into Week 2. We'll get things started with my five locks of the week.
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 2-3
ATS: 5-9-2
ML: 9-7
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Jets at Titans
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Like I noted in the intro, we're not going to overreact too drastically and make sweeping declarations about teams depending on whether or not they won or lost in Week 1. As it relates to the Jets, I'm not pushing the panic button on them because they couldn't pull out a road win against arguably the best team in the NFL. Yes, they were gashed by Jordan Mason on the ground. Yes, the offense ran hot and cold throughout the game. That said, this New York team is too talented to fall to 0-2 on the year, particularly with a much easier opponent on the horizon in Tennessee. The Titans melted down and gave away a double-digit lead to the Bears last week, and Will Levis didn't look much improved as he's now taking the reins as the full-time starter. His decision-making was a problem in the opener, and he'll only face stiffer competition against this Jets unit. This is a solid bounce-back spot for New York, albeit as a somewhat large road favorite.
Projected score: Jets 23, Titans 17
The pick: Jets -3.5
Seahawks at Patriots
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
It's not exactly ideal to back a road favorite that has to fly across the country, but here we are. New England spoiled a bunch of folks' Survivor pools with their opening upset against the Bengals, but everything had to go right for it to do so. Cincinnati was flat, turning the ball over in the red zone and muffing a punt to contribute to the upset. Even with the Patriots starting 1-0, I believe they'll end up with one of the worst records in the league as they continue to rebuild. The offensive line is still a major question, as they allowed the highest pressure rate in the NFL in Week 1 and were mixing and matching left tackles throughout the game. What happens when a defense bottles up Rhamondre Stevenson and forces Jacoby Brissett to go throw-for-throw? That's when I think their issues could come further into focus. Seattle was admittedly sloppy in its opener (two safeties allowed??), but this is an opponent it should handle by more than a field goal.
Projected score: Seahawks 21, Patriots 16
The pick: Seahawks -3.5
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Colts at Packers
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
What a brutal blow for Green Bay, losing Jordan Love in the final seconds of its opener against the Eagles. While it looks like the Packers quarterback avoided major injury, the team is anticipating Malik Willis to start in Week 2. If that remains the case, we're fading the cheeseheads. Willis doesn't instill confidence that he'll be able to keep the Green Bay offense afloat, and the Colts are scrappy enough to pull out the win here. If Willis continues to struggle to move the ball through the air (he has a career 48.7 passer rating), Indy can solely focus on locking down the run. Anthony Richardson will battle inconsistency, but he also showed us his otherworldly against Houston in Week 1, too, including that 60-yard touchdown throw to Alec Pierce.
Projected score: Colts 21, Packers 13
The pick: Colts -3
Saints at Cowboys
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Both of these teams put together blowout wins in Week 1. That said, I think New Orleans beating down on Carolina says more about where the Panthers are than it does about New Orleans establishing any sort of dominance in the conference. The same could be said for Dallas' win over a downtrodden Browns offense, but I trust the Cowboys talent -- specifically on defense -- more than the Saints. It's also worth pointing out that the Cowboys were sensational at AT&T Stadium in 2023. Dak Prescott and Co. had six wins last season by 20 or more points at home. The Cowboys are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of at least five points.
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Saints 20
The pick: Cowboys -6.5
Bears at Texans
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
You have to give Chicago credit for coming back from a double-digit deficit against the Titans in the opener. That said, how it was able to move to 1-0 isn't exactly sustainable. It required the opposing quarterback to make several mental mistakes, including a pick-six and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. I don't see a C.J. Stroud-led Texans team leaving the door that wide open for the Bears. The running game for Houston could also play large here. Tennessee running backs averaged more than five yards per carry against the Bears defense in Week 1, and now that unit will face a Texans running game that saw Joe Mixon pile up 178 yards from scrimmage to begin the year. While the Bears got the win last week, it was hardly thanks to Caleb Williams, who had just 93 yards through the air. It's hard to imagine him going from that to suddenly going toe-to-toe with Stroud at this point in his young career.
Projected score: Texans 27, Bears 14
The pick: Texans -6.5
Rest of the bunch
Bills at Dolphins
Projected score: Bills 27, Dolphins 24
The pick: Bills +2.5
Browns at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Browns 17
The pick: Jaguars -3.5
Chargers at Panthers
Projected score: Chargers 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Chargers -6.5
Raiders at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 30, Raiders 20
The pick: Ravens -9.5
Giants at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 20, Giants 17
The pick: Commanders -1.5
49ers at Vikings
Projected score: 49ers 28, Vikings 17
The pick: 49ers -6
Buccaneers at Lions
Projected score: Lions 27, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Buccaneers +7
Rams at Cardinals
Projected score: Rams 27, Cardinals 24
The pick: Rams +1.5
Bengals at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Bengals 21
The pick: Chiefs -6
Steelers at Broncos
Projected score: Steelers 17, Broncos 16
The pick: Broncos +3
Falcons at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 30, Falcons 20
The pick: Eagles -6.5
