What was worse in Week 1? Will Levis' game-losing pick six against the Chicago Bears, Bryce Young's play overall or my ATS picks? I usually clean up Week 1, but just fell victim to some bad beats I may never recover from. Seemingly everyone struggled against the spread, but why did I have to get embarrassed on all my top picks?
For example, Isaiah Likely's toenail was too long, so the Baltimore Ravens couldn't cover the spread in Kansas City. Then, the Tennessee Titans blew a 17-0 lead to the Bears, who mustered just 148 yards of total offense. Because of a blocked punt touchdown and the aforementioned pick six, Chicago's 24 unanswered points took the 4.5-point cover away from Tennessee. Unbelievable.
The Houston Texans did defeat the Indianapolis Colts, as I predicted. But only by two points instead of three. Then, the Miami Dolphins defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars by three points -- failing to cover by half a point. I have no excuse for picking the Cleveland Browns over the Dallas Cowboys. That was just a bad miss.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Top five picks ATS record: 0-5
Overall ATS record: 5-10-1
Straight up record: 10-6
Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
It's Anthony Richardson vs. Malik Willis. Who ya got? Richardson is probably good for an interception and some stretches of inconsistencies, but the fact of the matter is that he is a physical specimen who is only going to get better if he can stay healthy. Against the Texans last week, Richardson averaged 16.4 air yards per attempt. That was the highest mark by any quarterback in a game over the last two seasons! He also became the first quarterback to complete two passes with 50-plus air yards in a game since 2018. The rest of the NFL had one completion of 50 air yards combined! That shocked me.
Willis made three starts during his time with the Titans, and didn't cross 100 passing yards in any of them. In fact, he completed more than six passes in just one of those three starts.
The pick: Colts -3.5
Projected score: Colts 20-14
Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Over their last nine games dating back to last season, the Panthers have led for a total of 10 seconds. They have been outscored by 128 points over this span as well. We thought Dave Canales would have an immediate impact on Bryce Young, but Carolina's Week 1 showing was absolutely atrocious. Plus, the Panthers lost their best player in defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season.
I don't think the Chargers are Super Bowl contenders, but you have to be impressed with how they ran the ball against what I thought was going to be a very good Las Vegas Raiders defense. Who saw J.K. Dobbins exploding for 135 rushing yards and a touchdown?
The pick: Chargers -6
Projected score: Chargers 24-16
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I lost money fading the Cowboys last week, so I'm not going to do that again. Dallas has been automatic at home for a while now. The Cowboys are on a 16-game home win streak in the regular season, and had six home wins by at least 20 points last year, which were the most since the 1999 Rams. The Cowboys are also 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as favorites of at least five points.
The Saints had quite the explosion against the lowly Panthers in Week 1, but I like Micah Parsons to be a difference-maker by putting pressure on Derek Carr.
The pick: Cowboys -6.5
Projected score: Cowboys 27-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Joe Burrow is 3-1 against Patrick Mahomes, but he's just 1-8 in his career in Weeks 1-2. Mahomes on the other hand is 11-2 in Weeks 1-2. The Bengals looked pitiful at home against the team many considered to be the worst in the NFL in Week 1, and now we expect them to turn it around in Arrowhead with Tee Higgins still dealing with a hamstring injury? Plus, is Burrow's right wrist OK?
Steve Spagnuolo is going to throw pressure at Burrow, and then the Bengals defense couldn't stop Rhamondre Stevenson. Isiah Pacheco could have a big game. With this number under six, I'll lay it with the reigning Super Bowl champions.
The pick: Chiefs -5.5
Projected score: Chiefs 30-23
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Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
Caleb Williams became the first No. 1 overall pick at quarterback to win his first start since 2002, but he didn't really do anything. The former USC star completed 14 of 29 passes for 93 yards, while the Bears defense and special teams pulled off an incredible victory against Tennessee.
Williams completed 1 of 7 passes for 11 yards and was sacked twice when under pressure. Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson had a dominant showing by mixing up coverages and throwing stunts at Williams -- so much so that head coach Brian Callahan joked the Titans could have punted on first down every possession in the second half and won the game.
I don't think the Texans were as sharp as they could have been against the Colts, but their new additions made immediate impacts. Joe Mixon rushed 30 times for 159 yards and a touchdown with 178 total scrimmage yards, and Stefon Diggs caught two touchdowns. With Williams playing his first road game, I'll take Houston in its hostile environment in prime time.
The pick: Texans -6
Projected score: Texans 28-17
Other Week 2 picks
Bills (+2.5) 24-23 over Dolphins
Ravens (-8.5) 30-17 over Raiders
Lions 24-21 over Buccaneers (+7.5)
Jaguars (-3) 26-20 over Browns
49ers (-6) 26-18 over Vikings
Seahawks 20-17 over Patriots (+3.5)
Jets (-3.5) 24-20 over Titans
Commanders (-1.5) 21-16 over Giants
Rams (+1) 27-23 over Cardinals
Steelers (-2.5) 17-14 over Broncos
Eagles (-6.5) 29-22 over Falcons
