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USATSI

I thought underdogs had a chance to show out last week against the spread. Well, that did not happen. By my count, underdogs covered in just TWO of 14 games. Absurd. 

I thought Drake Maye could surprise the NFL world by keeping it close with the Houston Texans. He had a nice debut, but of course didn't cover the spread. I bet on the Tennessee Titans thinking Anthony Richardson was going to start for the Indianapolis Colts, but when they announced right before kickoff that Joe Flacco would be quarterbacking, I knew we were cooked. I did have the Detroit Lions destroying the Dallas Cowboys, but also thought Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets could upset the Buffalo Bills. 

Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

All NFL sports betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Top five picks ATS record: 11-18-1
Overall ATS record: 35-54-3
Straight up record: 52-40

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

The Saints are banged-up with a capital "B." Spencer Rattler won't have Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed to throw the ball to, or Cesar Ruiz to block for him. Plus, this defense just allowed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to have arguably the greatest offensive performance in franchise history -- in New Orleans! The Broncos don't exactly boast a high-flying offense, but they do have a winning record on the road this season. And this, of course, is somewhat of a revenge game for Sean Payton. People like betting on home dogs, but this is the second week in a row the Saints have been on a short week! 

The pick: Broncos -2.5
Projected score: Broncos 23-20 (O/U is 37 at BetMGM sportsbook)

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)

The Dolphins did score a five-point victory over the New England Patriots before their bye, but this is the same team that lost, 31-12, to the Titans. The same Titans team that just lost to the Colts on Sunday. Richardson is expected to be back under center, which I don't love, but I would love if Jonathan Taylor is back. 

I am a little nervous Miami could just run the ball down Indy's throat with its talented backs. Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert combined for 166 rushing yards vs. the Patriots, but this Colts team is good enough to beat Tyler Huntley's Dolphins by at least three points. In fact, Miami has covered the spread just once this season, and is averaging 1.1 points per drive. Yes, that obviously ranks last in the NFL. 

The pick: Colts -3
Projected score: Colts 24-17

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Things aren't going well in Tennessee. Some fans want Will Levis benched, and he's still dealing with a shoulder injury that may have affected not only his performance on Sunday, but Tennessee's game plan as well. Levis was 0 of 8 targeting Calvin Ridley, who had some things to say about his role in the offense after the game. 

I was surprised by the Bills last week. Not only was Ray Davis awesome on the ground, but Josh Allen is also the only qualified quarterback this season with zero interceptions. He has no picks in six straight games for the first time in his career!

I'm not afraid of the big number at sportsbooks. Tennessee has the second-worst offense in the league (253.2 yards of total offense per game), and Levis is 1-6 SU and ATS in his last seven starts. 

The pick: Bills -9.5
Projected score: Bills 30-17

Bet Josh Allen props at BetMGM sportsbook

Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders (-8)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Remember when we were praising Andy Dalton for turning the Panthers around? Well this team has lost three straight games by double digits. It's not all the offense's fault, as the Panthers defense allows a league-worst 33.8 points per game. The Commanders offense on the other hand is tied for scoring the second-most points per contest (29.7). Washington has also scored points on 96.2% of red zone drives this season, which ranks best in the NFL. 

After last week's loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Jayden Daniels and Co. could have a field day in front of their home fans ... again. Last game in Landover, Washington dropped 34 points in a 21-point victory over the Cleveland Browns.

The pick: Commanders -8
Projected score: Commanders 35-23

New York Jets (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)

I got burned by the Jets last week, but the Steelers are on the verge of making a controversial quarterback decision, replacing Justin Fields with Russell Wilson. No one would claim Fields is Tom Brady, but he has the Steelers off to a 4-2 start. He's completing a career-high 66.3% of his passes, and has scored 10 total touchdowns compared to one interception. He has also used his legs to make up for the Steelers' offensive line issues. Pittsburgh is down at least three starters up front, and now you want to put a slower, rusty 35-year-old quarterback behind that line? 

The pick: Jets -2
Projected score: Jets 20-14

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Other Week 7 picks