The 2024 NFL preseason is in nearly over, which means the regular season is just around the corner. With a few preseason games in our rearview, we have a better idea of how the teams will shape up and how the rookies are adjusting to life in the big leagues.
At CBS Sports, we have already predicted which teams and which quarterbacks will exceed expectations and who will underperform this season, now it's time to dive into how the rookies will fare.
The No. 1 overall pick, Caleb Williams, has the highest expectations this season and was quickly named the starter for the Chicago Bears. Jayden Daniels was named the starter this week for the Washington Commanders and the New England Patriots still have a quarterback battle involving No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye. Arizona Cardinals Marvin Harrison Jr. and Los Angeles Chargers Joe Alt round out the top five.
The top selected players always have a brighter spotlight on them, but often these expected stars don't live up to their hype. Every year there are also players taken in later rounds who emerge as stars.
Shanna McCarriston, Josh Edwards, Jared Dubin, Jeff Kerr, Garrett Podell and Bryan DeArdo gave their predictions for which rookies will overachieve and which rookies will fall short of expectations.
Rookies who will exceed expectations
McCarriston -- WR Xavier Worthy, Chiefs, No. 28 overall: The Buffalo Bills have had their playoff chances ruined by the Kansas City Chiefs many times, so you'd think they wouldn't want to give their AFC rival a chance to get a player sooner in the draft. The Chiefs traded up, taking pick No. 28 from the Bills and with it, selecting wide receiver Xavier Worthy.
The rising rookie has the speed, marking the fastest 40-time in NFL history, and seems to be a good fit for the defending Super Bowl champs. The Chiefs obviously had a successful season as the world champions, but their pass catching needed work last season. I can see Worthy benefiting the offense in many ways, from making plays himself, to helping the team's other stars get open.
Edwards -- CB Kamari Lassiter, Texans, No. 42 overall: Houston has added Danielle Hunter and others to the front seven this season, which should relieve some of the pressure from CB2 opposite Derek Stingley Jr. Lassiter had really good film in college, but there were questions about his speed.
Kerr -- LB Dallas Turner, Vikings, No. 17 overall: Turner should have been a top-10 pick in this draft, but the wave of offensive players taken early caused his stock to fall. He landed in a perfect situation with Minnesota, as a pass rusher in Brian Flores' pressure defense is an ideal fit for Turner's skill set. Don't be surprised if Turner can reach double-digit sacks in year one.
Dubin -- DL Laiatu Latu, Colts, No. 15 overall: If it weren't for his injury issues, Latu would probably have gone earlier in the draft. He's such an explosive edge rusher, and he'll have every opportunity to get after opposing quarterbacks.
Podell -- DT Byron Murphy II, Seahawks, No. 16 overall: Byron Murphy was an elite pass-rushing defensive tackle in college at the University of Texas, registering the highest quarterback pressure rate (17.0%) among FBS defensive tackles with at least 250 pass rushes, and he had the highest Pro Football Focus pass rush grade (91.5) by an FBS defensive tackle in 2023.
This preseason with the Seattle Seahawks, their 16th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has shown a more well-rounded game stopping the run, absolutely engulfing ball carriers as shown in this video below against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Most of the time, defensive accolades in the NFL go to edge rushers, not defensive tackles. Three of the last four NFL Defensive Rookies of the Year --- Will Anderson in 2023, Micah Parsons in 2021, Chase Young in 2020 and Nick Bosa in 2019 -- and the last three NFL Defensive Players of the Year -- Myles Garrett in 2023, Bosa in 2022 and T.J. Watt in 2021 -- were edge rushers. Murphy's production against both the run and the pass could have him in contention for the 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, especially under new Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald -- the architect of the 2023 season's top defense as the Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator.
Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike took his game to new heights under Macdonald, totaling career-highs with 13.0 sacks (ninth in the NFL in 2023) and 65 quarterback pressures (tied for 21st in the NFL in 2023), and Murphy could too. He has the third-best odds to be the 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (+900), trailing edge rushers Laiatu Latu (+425) and Dallas Turner (+450). There's a decent chance he could exceed both of their overall production in 2024.
DeArdo -- C Zach Frazier, Steelers, No. 51 overall: Yes, I know it's odd to give a center attention. But Frazier (the second center selected in this year's draft) has played well this summer and appears to be primed to carry the tradition of great Steelers centers that includes Mike Webster, Dermontti Dawson, and Maurkice Pouncey.
Rookies who will underperform:
McCarriston -- WR Xavier Legette, Panthers, No. 32 overall: As you will see below, my colleague Josh Edwards and I agree that Legette will not meet expectations this year. It won't be totally his fault, but I think Leggette will have a hard time making a big splash this year. The Panthers offense was a mess last year while I can see them winning more than two games this season, I expect those struggles from 2023 to remain.
Leggette will also have to fight for touches from other members of the offense, like wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen and running back Chuba Hubbard. Quarterback Bryce Young is not the most solid in the league and that could impact the rookie's transition to the NFL.
Edwards -- WR Xavier Legette, Panthers, No. 32 overall: Injuries and expected role aside, there are only a few reasonable options. Expectations for Legette, a first-round selection, may be high but Johnson and Thielen will likely see more targets as the Carolina offense struggles to find itself.
Kerr -- WR Ricky Pearsall, 49ers, No. 31 overall: Hard to tell what the 49ers are going to get out of Pearsall, who has been hampered by injuries all preseason. Hamstring and shoulder injuries have limited Pearsall's development in training camp, keeping him out of preseason action as well. If the 49ers trade Brandon Aiyuk, Pearsall could be the WR2 -- a role he's clearly not ready for. It's best for the 49ers to take it easy with Pearsall this year, which won't be the case if Aiyuk is gone.
Dubin -- RB Jonathon Brooks, Panthers, No. 46 overall: A running back coming off a late-season ACL tear, who might miss the first few weeks of the season, on a team that is going to be one of the worst in the league? I'll fade that all day.
Podell -- WR Malik Nabers, Giants, No. 6 overall: Malik Nabers' inclusion here has nothing to do with the player that he is. He caught four of his six targets in the Giants' preseason game against the Houston Texans this past weekend with a couple of them being highlight reel plays.
The problem is his quarterback, Daniel Jones, looks like a mess and that his decent 2022 season was an anomaly. New York's $160 million passer threw two horrific interceptions versus Houston, including one in which he threw toward the outside while he was being pulled down in the end zone. The play ended with a five-yard pick-six by Texans defensive back Jalen Pitre. That throw is far and away the worst of the 2024 preseason so far. Jones' other interception came 40 yards from the end zone where his deep ball down the right sideline needed to be more out in front and on the right outside shoulder of his intended target in Jalin Hyatt. He instead threw the football toward the receiver's left shoulder where cornerback Derek Stingley was located, which resulted in another pick.
Nabers appears to have the tools to be a great NFL wide receiver down the road. The problem is he may not be able to fully realize his talents until he has a better quarterback throwing him the football.
DeArdo -- QB Drake Maye, Patriots, No. 3 overall: Sorry, New England fans, but this could be a long year for your team and rookie quarterback. Maye may eventually turn into a solid pro, but he doesn't appear to be set up for success this season. It would be wise for Jerod Mayo to let Maye start his rookie year holding a clipboard while watching and learning from Jacoby Brissett.
