It's one thing to forecast Rookie of the Year candidates. It's another to forecast the top rookie at every major position. Which is exactly what we're doing now that 2024 NFL training camps are well underway.
Every year, of course, overlooked rookies emerge to steal the spotlight. Think Puka Nacua, who entered as a fifth-round draft pick in 2023, only to take over as one of the top possession receivers in the NFL.
As we stand, though, here are 10 first-year players we're pegging for standout rookie seasons:
QB: Caleb Williams (Bears)
Top 2023 performer: C.J. Stroud (Texans)
Expecting any of this year's rookie signal-callers to match, let alone approach, Stroud's production is kind of unfair, considering how big a hand he had in Houston's quick ascent. Williams has the gunslinging arm to make an instant splash, however, and perhaps more importantly, a well-stocked supporting cast featuring proven weapons like D'Andre Swift, D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen.
RB: Jonathon Brooks (Panthers)
Top 2023 performer: Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)
It's very possible that Blake Corum will benefit from the Los Angeles Rams' superior offensive setup to maximize carries alongside Kyren Williams, but Brooks arguably has the quicker path to a true No. 1 role in Carolina, where new coach Dave Canales is bent on taking the load off quarterback Bryce Young.
WR: Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals)
Top 2023 performer: Puka Nacua (Rams)
Is it a boring pick, considering Harrison was the top wideout drafted? Maybe. And yet Cardinals fans won't be bored if the Ohio State product finally gives Kyler Murray a bona fide No. 1. Harrison shouldn't struggle for targets as the most gifted weapon in the clubhouse, and Murray looked improved late in 2023.
TE: Brock Bowers (Raiders)
Top 2023 performer: Sam LaPorta (Lions)
Another easy choice considering the perceived gap between Bowers and his fellow tight ends in the 2024 rookie class, but the uncertain quarterback situation also works indirectly in his favor: Whether it's Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew under center, Bowers figures to draw lots of looks as a safety valve.
OL: Joe Alt (Chargers)
Top 2023 performer: Darnell Wright (Bears)
As the top-drafted tackle of his class, Alt already has a high bar to clear. He's also in a favorable spot, debuting under a coach in Jim Harbaugh who likes to set the tone on the ground and in the trenches. It helps he's got pros like Rashawn Slater and Bradley Bozeman as teammates up front.
DL: Jer'Zhan Newton (Commanders)
Top 2023 performer: Jalen Carter (Eagles)
Byron Murphy II has reason for high hopes under new Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, a defensive whiz, but Newton has an even more suitable setup working alongside veteran studs like Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, as well as under the defensively geared Dan Quinn.
EDGE: Chop Robinson (Dolphins)
Top 2023 performer: Will Anderson Jr. (Texans)
Dallas Turner was the top choice of this class, and Brian Flores' oversight should help with the Minnesota Vikings, but Robinson could have even more opportunities out of the gate with both Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips coming off injury. His elite burst should come in handy against teams playing catch-up.
LB: Payton Wilson (Steelers)
Top 2023 performer: Ivan Pace Jr. (Vikings)
Don't sleep on Junior Colson in Los Angeles, where the ex-Michigan leader will stay with Jim Harbaugh. Wilson, however, feels like he was born and bred to be a Steeler, entering the NFL with more than enough instincts and physicality to offset a concerning injury history. Alongside Patrick Queen, he could shine.
CB: Terrion Arnold (Lions)
Top 2023 performer: Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks)
Quinyon Mitchell technically went ahead of Arnold in the draft, but he's currently slated for slot duties with the Philadelphia Eagles, whereas Arnold profiles as a Day 1 perimeter starter in Detroit. The balance of youth (i.e. Brian Branch, Ennis Rakestraw Jr.) and experience (i.e. Carlton Davis) around him should help.
S: Javon Bullard (Packers)
Top 2023 performer: Brian Branch (Lions)
Bullard may not be a seamless projection at a specific spot in the secondary, as his NFL Media scouting report suggests, but his versatility and well-regarded instincts should be a major complement to the rangy Xavier McKinney, who now headlines Green Bay's defensive backfield.
