We're witnessing a changing of the guard at the catcher position, and it might be fundamentally changing the way Fantasy Baseball players have to approach the position in 2024 and beyond.
For the first time in probably six years, we have a consensus No. 1 player at the position who isn't either J.T. Realmuto or Salvador Perez. Partially, that's because those two have aged out of being elite contributors -- Perez more so than Realmuto -- in Fantasy. That doesn't necessarily explain it all, though -- Perez still had 23 homers and 80 RB last season, good for a top-three mark at the position, while Realmuto still had 20 homers and 16 steals, an elite power-speed combination for the position.
What's happened instead is the rapid ascension of Adley Rutschman, who appeared in 154 games last season and hit .277/.374/.435 with 20 homers and 164 combined runs and RBI. Rutschman could legitimately emerge as an MVP candidate in the next couple of years, and there's room for even more growth offensively from the soon-to-be 26-year-old (though to be fair, his home park is going to be an impediment there for the foreseeable future, unfortunately).
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But Rutschman isn't the only reason things are looking up at catcher. William Contreras, Yainer Diaz, Francisco Alvarez, Gabriel Moreno, and Logan O'Hoppe are all relative newcomers to the Fantasy landscape, and all are in the consensus top 12 for the Fantasy Baseball Today team, with names like Bo Naylor, Shea Langeliers, and more hoping to leap as well. The position looks to be in good shape, with 10 players ranking inside of the consensus top 150 for 2024. I feel very good about any one of my top 16 catchers as my No. 1 this year.
Of course, we've said that before, and it's worth remembering that, while progress is never linear for young players at any position, that is more true at catcher than anywhere else. Catchers have the highest bust rate among draft picks and prospects among hitters, both because they have more work to do to get MLB-ready as defensive players and because their defensive home leaves them more prone to injury than any other position on the field (except pitchers). Injuries are going to cause plenty of attrition at the position, and plain disappointment will fall on a few others.
But, for the first time in a long time, it feels like the catcher position at least has enough quality hitters with upside to fill out a full league's worth of lineups ... at least in one-catcher leagues.
Rutschman doesn't quite bring the all-around, five-category excellent to the table Realmuto did at his peak, but he's an incredibly well-rounded hitter in an improving lineup who provides an incredibly high floor. If he's going to take another step, it'll likely come as he pushes toward the 25-homer range, though his home park might hold him back in that regard.
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Contreras proved his partial-season success in 2022 was no fluke. He couldn't sustain the 30-homer pace from 2022, but he was a strong source of batting average, improved his plate discipline, and hit 38 doubles, the eighth-most of any hitter. He hits the ball hard enough to think at least a few of those doubles might go over the fend in 2024, though the underlying data suggests he might have been a bit lucky to get his average as high as he did. There's a bit of risk involved in taking Contreras with a top-100 pick, but his playing time (600-plus PA in 2023) mitigates a lot of that risk.
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There still isn't a catcher who can impact all five categories in the same way Realmuto does, but he's also going to be 33 on Opening Day, with a ton of miles on the odometer, and took a step back pretty much across the board as a hitter in 2023. Was that the start of Realmuto's decline phase, or just a bump in the road? If it's the former, he's still likely to be an incredibly valuable part of any lineup; if it's the latter he could be a nice value.
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Smith has settled in as a solid all-around hitter, but not necessarily the standout he looked like he might become early in his career. That being said, the gap between him and Rutschman might not be as big as the gap in their prices -- Smith is a worse bet for batting average, but should be right there with him in the other three categories. Seeing as batting average is the stat that has the most yearly fluctuation, it wouldn't be that surprising if he was closer than expected to him, would it?
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If you trust the advanced data, Diaz is already one of the best hitters at the position, as his .363 expected wOBA last year was the fourth-best at the position as a rookie. It's a small sample size, as Diaz only had 377 PA last season, but he was a top-100 prospect before last season who had hit .294/.343/.587 at Triple-A, so it was hardly out of nowhere. There's some bust risk with Diaz because of the limited track record, but if it wasn't a fluke, he's going to be a mainstay at the top of the position for the next decade, and there's plenty of reason to think it wasn't a fluke.
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Contreras got off to a miserable start last season, hitting .240 with a .754 OPS in the first half. But he got red hot at the beginning of July and hit .339/.440/.619 over his final 52 games. Now, we've seen enough of Contreras at this point to know not to expect either half to be predictive -- he's just a streaky, streaky hitter and always has been. Strap yourself in for the long haul and you'll get 20-ish homers and hopefully a batting average that doesn't hurt you by the end of the ride.
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If you're a believer in the advanced metrics, Murphy should be one of your top targets for 2024, because his .390 expected wOBA was the clear top mark at the position. He underperformed that by 24 points, despite moving from one of the worst home parks in baseball to a much more neutral one. Murphy slumped hard toward the end of the season and was mostly a half-time player after June, so the discounted price isn't unreasonable ... but I do think there's plenty of room for profit here.
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Raleigh is kind of a one-trick pony, but when you're capable of hitting 30 homers as a catcher, it's a pretty good trick. He struggled in the first half of the season and might have even been dropped in some leagues, as he had just six homers between May and June will sporting an OPS below .700. However, he got hot in July and hit 19 homers over the final three months. Even that stretch came with just a .235 average, so we know what the limitations are here, but he might be the best power hitter at the position at a very reasonable price.
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2020 and 2021 are going to go down as the outliers for Perez, who led the majors in HR and RBI in 2021. Since then, he's returned to the one-dimensional slugger he was prior to that breakout. You'll get 20-plus homers and strong RBI totals from him, and hopefully a batting average that won't hurt you, but we're past the point of expecting much more from the soon-to-be 34-year-old.
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With 25 homers in 423 PA, Alvarez might just be the best power hitter at the position. The question here is whether he can emerge as more than just a one-dimensional power hitter. Seeing as he didn't turn 22 until late in the season, I'm definitely not giving up on the potential for more growth. Alvarez already put the power on display as a 21-year-old; if there's any growth in the contact skills alongside it, he could be a top-five option this time next year. I might bet on it.
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Garver is going to be the primary DH for the Mariners, which brings two notable benefits: He'll play more than most catchers, and he'll hopefully have a better chance of staying healthy than he has in the past. Garver is a legitimate 30-homer threat if he gets 130 games, even in a tough home park, and there's a decent chance he's just the best player at the position in Fantasy this season.
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The degree of difficulty for what Logan O'Hoppe accomplished in 2023 can't be overstated. He hit .283/.339/.547 in 16 April games and looked like a legitimate breakout star, then underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder that kept him out of action for four months. If he had done nothing from that point on, it'd be understandable, given the nature of the injury. Instead, he hit 10 homers over his final 35 games, with even a .217 batting average explained away by an unnaturally low .209 BABIP. There's some residual risk with the shoulder, and there's enough swing-and-miss in O'Hoppe's game that average could be an issue moving forward. But showing that kind of power coming off that kind of injury is eye-opening. There's a non-zero chance we're talking about him as a top-five catcher this time next year.
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Davis caught two whole innings in the majors last season, but he was expected to move back to catcher even before Endy Rodriguez's season-ending elbow injury in the winter. Davis should gain catcher eligibility within the first week or so of the season, and he absolutely belongs on your radar as a No. 2 option with top-10 upside. Davis struggled as a rookie, hitting .213/.302/.351, with underlying numbers that were better, but still pretty underwhelming. Still, this is a recent top prospect who hit 16 homers and stole 13 bases in 86 games between Double-A and Triple-A, and very well could be a Roto stud if everything comes together for him.
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Ruiz tapped into some unexpected power last season, and though it came at the cost of batting average early on, he kind of looked like a star in the second half of the season, hitting .300/.342/.467 after the All-Star break. Ruiz's power breakout didn't come with a contact trade off, so it's not unreasonable to think what he did in the second half might be sustainable. I'm not drafting him as if it was, but it's within the realm of possibility.
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Moreno got hot in the second half of the season, hitting five of his seven homers after the All-Star break, and then he kept it up in the postseason, hitting four more in 17 games during the D-Backs unexpected World Series run. I wouldn't expect much more than, say, 10 homers, but with his strong batting average floor and non-zero speed production, that's a useful Fantasy option. Is it a great No. 1 catcher? Probably not, but if he pushed closer to 15 homers (not impossible with his above-average raw pop), there's definitely room for a breakout here.
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Another member of the position's youth movement, Naylor showed off the well-rounded skill set that made him such an interesting prospect, with a 135-game pace of 22 homers and 10 steals. That's in line with what he managed in the minors, right down to the lower-than-you'd-think batting average for a guy with solid contact skills. Naylor is better in points or OBP leagues because of his plate discipline, but if you can stomach a .240-ish average, he could reward you with rare power-speed numbers from a catcher.
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I'm kind of surprised Heim isn't going higher than he is right now, given his 95 RBI last season. The problem was, that was really the only place he stood out, and his second-half collapse – which did not slow down in the postseason – makes even his surface-level numbers look pretty hard to buy. Still, he's a solid hitter in a very good lineup, and a nice fallback option at the position.
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We saw a must-start version of Kirk in 2022, but his disastrous 2023 has made that a distant memory for many. He still made a ton of contact in 2023, but the quality of that contact was severely diminished, with his expected batting average falling from .297 to .252. Kirk was overwhelmed by fastballs, especially at the bottom of the zone, which Kirk just harmlessly mashed into the ground for easy outs. He'll need to figure out how to either lay off those pitches or else find a way to elevate them, and you know good pitchers will challenge him until he does. It was a discouraging season for a guy who looked like a star a season and a half ago, but his price has fallen to the point where I'll still chase the upside for my No. 2 catcher.
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Alvarez has already shown standout tools: 91st percentile max exit velocity, and 84th percentile barrel rate, and 79th percentile expected ISO all back up the impressive power numbers he put up. Now he has to show room for growth to become a more well-rounded hitter. As is, he's a perfectly fine low-end No. 1 catcher, but there's top-three potential here as the natural successor to Salvador Perez if he can cut his 26% strikeout rate. And there are reasons to think he might be able to do that -- his 25.7% chase rate was actually well below average, and his 81% zone-contact rate isn't so bad as to be prohibitive. Alvarez is a high-floor option, but the ceiling could make him a legitimate difference maker.
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I just don't see all that much to get excited about with Moreno, who looks like a one-category contributor to me. Maybe the second-half power breakout was real, though there's little in his overall profile to suggest he's likely to be much of a contributor there – he doesn't hit the ball especially hard, and his all-fields, ground-ball oriented approach makes him a good bet for batting average but with a ceiling on his power potential. If he hits .284 again, it might not matter, because that's enough to make you worth starting at catcher. But with a .264 xBA last season, even that isn't guaranteed. I'd rather bet on Naylor's all-around game, Garver's DH bat, or Ruiz's similar profile at a cheaper cost.
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Catcher Top Prospects
1. Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles
Age (on opening day): 19
Where he played in 2023: Low-A, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .313 BA (419 AB), 20 HR, 12 SB, .953 OPS, 61 BB, 94 K
Catchers generally don't make for the best Dynasty assets, but with Adley Rutschman entrenched there for the Orioles, it's more Basallo's bat (and its ability to profile anywhere) that earns him this prominent spot in the rankings. Despite being months away from his 20th birthday, he already stands out for his swing decisions and exit velocities, and even a late-season move to Double-A wasn't enough to slow him down.
Scott's 2024 Fantasy impact: late-season look
2. Ethan Salas, C, Padres
Age (on opening day): 17
Where he played in 2023: Low-A, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .248 BA (254 AB), 9 HR, .752 OPS, 30 BB, 75 K
Salas began last season as a 16-year-old and ended it in Double-A, which would be remarkable regardless of his position but is unheard of for a catcher, given the steep learning curve. To say he's advanced for his age (both offensively and defensively) would be the understatement of the year, and while growth (he has much ahead of him) brings unpredictability, greatness is the prevailing forecast as of now.
Scott's 2024 Fantasy impact: don't count on it
3. Harry Ford, C, Mariners
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2023: High-A
Minor-league stats: .257 BA (444 AB), 15 HR, 24 SB, .841 OPS, 103 BB, 109 K
Ford's athleticism is sort of wasted at catcher, but the longer he stays there, the more likely he is to stick, which should at least make him a fun novelty at the position, sort of like if Marcus Semien played there. His best tools are his batting eye and foot speed, though the power should play if he continues elevating to his pull side.
Scott's 2024 Fantasy impact: late-season look
4. Dalton Rushing, C, Dodgers
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2023: High-A
Minor-league stats: .228 BA (290 AB), 15 HR, .856 OPS, 72 BB, 93 K
The biggest knock on Rushing is that he's a catcher and likely to remain there, because otherwise, his patient approach and light-tower power would make him out to be an early-round OPS hog. He reached base at a .404 clip last year despite batting just .228, but there aren't real concerns about his hit tool, which presents the hope he could get enough DH at-bats to max out his potential.
Scott's 2024 Fantasy impact: late-season look
5. Kyle Teel, C, Red Sox
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2023: Rookie, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .363 BA (91 AB), 2 HR, 3 SB, .977 OPS, 21 BB, 22 K
A sweet left-handed swing is not a trait normally associated with catchers, but it's the defining characteristic for Teel, the 14th overall pick in last year's draft. Between that and his sturdy defensive foundation, he's unusually safe for a catcher prospect, particularly since he's already made it to Double-A. He may never develop the power to be an out-and-out stud at the position.
Scott's 2024 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
