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You may think spring training performance doesn't matter, and for known quantities, it doesn't. But for relative unknowns, spring training can provide crucial insights into what's coming.
It's not foolproof, of course, which makes it not for the foolhardy. So rather than leaving you to your own devices, I've decided to point you to the couple dozen spring performances that could matter, presenting them in a "winners and losers" format.
And really, it's less about the performances than the developments. My goal is to determine what's actually changed because of spring training, whether for performance reasons, health reasons, role reasons or skill reasons (such as developing a new pitch).
There are a few contradictory cases that I decided to exclude. One would be Kristian Campbell, who backed into the Red Sox's second base job with a terrible performance that saw him strike out more than 30 percent of the time. He's a winner in the most technical sense, but I wouldn't say I feel better about him than before spring training began. Conversely, there's Zac Veen, who no doubt raised his Fantasy stock with his performance this spring but ultimately didn't secure a job on the Rockies opening day roster. Hard to say whether he's a winner or loser.
I have more winners here than losers because, quite frankly, they're more interesting to talk about. A longer loser list would mostly be comprised of players set to begin the year on the IL, and I figured not much needed to be said about them. (Kind of self-explanatory!)
Winners
The one-time top prospect has looked so good after working with an independent hitting coach in the offseason that the Mets have resolved to play him out of position to get his bat in the lineup. Brett Baty will man second base at least until Jeff McNeil (oblique) is ready to return.
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Provided that the blister he suffered Sunday doesn't sideline him for the start of the season, Hayden Birdsong is expected to slot into the Giants rotation after issuing no walks for his entire Cactus League run. It was a stark turnaround from his rookie season and allowed his stuff to play up spectacularly.
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Richard Fitts became an obvious choice to fill one of the openings in the Red Sox rotation when he showed up throwing 2 mph harder, a product of offseason strength training. Between that and and expanded arsenal, his upside has gone up a notch.
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After playing last season with patellar tendinitis and a detached core muscle, Max Kepler has been a true standout. He worked with hitting coach Kevin Long to shorten his swing and make better use of his lower half and has gone on to deliver premium exit velocities with a high walk rate.
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A kidney infection in the second half last year prevented Austin Hays from making the most of his escape from Camden Yards and its unscalable left field fence, but now he'll be playing in the most inviting home run venue of all. His performance this spring has positioned him to bat cleanup for the Reds.
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A bloated strikeout rate last spring was the first sign of trouble for Jackson Holliday in what turned out to be a failed rookie season, but his 20.4 percent rate this spring suggests real growth has a hitter. He's also made good on his vow to steal more bases.
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Clay Holmes' ground-ball profile already figured to play better in a starting role than as a closer, but the addition of a changeup to counteract left-handed hitters has opened a new world of possibilities, emerging as a major-swing-and-miss offering.
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Though Grant Holmes showed promise in a handful of starts last year, prompting Alex Anthopoulos to say that he couldn't land anyone this offseason who would be an improvement over the right-hander, this spring has served as proof of concept. The departure of Ian Anderson also gives Holmes more job security by eliminating the other rotation candidate who's out of minor-league options.
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We had mostly written off Rhys Hoskins as a Fantasy asset after a rough first season in Milwaukee that ended with him in a part-time role, but this spring has served to remind us of the hitter he was prior to ACL surgery in 2023. Turns out he may not have been fully recovered from the procedure last year, and his comments this spring lend credence to that idea.
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The theory heading into spring training was that a blister on his middle finger wrecked Nick Lodolo's curveball midway through last season and ultimately led to the finger sprain that shut him down early. His last two spring starts especially have shown that the curveball is back in top form, renewing his breakout appeal.
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Robbie Ray showed improved velocity after returning from Tommy John surgery last season, and it's carried over to this spring, seeing him throw the ball as hard as he did during his 2021 Cy Young campaign. The bigger triumph, though, is the development of a new changeup learned from fellow left-hander Tarik Skubal.
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Giancarlo Stanton's balky elbows left the Yankees with an opening at DH, and Ben Rice has positioned himself to fill it, at least against right-handers, with an impressive power display. The underlying data from his time in the majors last year paints a much more favorable picture than the top-line production, and his minor-league track record is truly something to behold.
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The Blue Jays were hyping up Alan Roden at the start of spring training, and he followed through with a performance that put his superlative plate discipline on display, making him the obvious choice to fill in for an injured Daulton Varsho to open the year. Roden already excels at pulling the ball in the air, which should help to maximize his power output.
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Christopher Sanchez experimented with higher velocities early last season but ultimately had to dial it back because it compromised his command. The velocity bump this spring looks more sustainable and has him generating swinging strikes at an elite 17 percent rate, putting him potentially on an ace trajectory.
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Victor Scott has forced his way into the Cardinals' center field plans for a second straight spring, but his improved power output gives him a better chance of sticking this time around. Ultimately, he just needs to hit enough to maximize his 80-grade speed, which resulted in 94 stolen bases in the minors two years ago.
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Drafted 14th overall just last year, Cam Smith was thought to be the forward-looking piece that the Astros acquired in the Kyle Tucker deal, but he's proven to be such a natural at the plate that they abruptly decided to audition him for an outfield opening ... which he seems to have secured.
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The Tigers themselves wrote off Spencer Torkelson this offseason, anointing Colt Keith as their first baseman instead, but the former No. 1 overall pick's efforts to be more athletic and less robotic at the plate appear to have paid off. His productive spring has at least positioned him to be the Tigers DH while also getting looks in right field.
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Austin Wells' bat speed is reportedly up 3 mph this spring, and it's led to the sort of power output that you love to see from a left-handed hitter scheduled to play half his games at Yankee Stadium. If that's not enough of a perk for a catcher, Wells has also emerged as the favorite to bat leadoff against right-handed pitchers.
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Gavin Williams has regained the induced vertical break on his fastball after falling into some bad mechanical habits last year and at one point had back-to-back starts with double-digit swinging strikes on that pitch alone -- just obscene numbers. He may be the biggest spring riser of all, not to mention a dark horse Cy Young candidate.
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Nobody knew at the start of spring training if Christian Yelich would ever be the same following back surgery, much less if he'd be ready for opening day, but all of those concerns have been put to rest with his impressive hitting performance this spring. The surgery may turn out to be a net positive, in fact, given all the years he was plagued by back pain.
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A few other winners: Drake Baldwin, Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette, Griffin Canning, Mike Clevinger, Hunter Greene, Zebby Matthews, Curtis Mead, Max Meyer, Casey Mize, Joseph Ortiz, Cade Povich, Max Scherzer, Spencer Schwellenbach, Gavin Sheets, Shane Smith, A.J. Smith-Shawver, Spencer Strider, Tomoyuki Sugano, Jacob Wilson
And just to keep things somewhat balanced, here are five losers from spring training (excluding those who got injured, which are obvious losers).
Losers
The Pirates have been slow to endorse David Bednar as their closer -- a necessity after he lost the job last year -- and his performance this spring has made it anything but a foregone conclusion. Even if he backs into the role, you can't feel confident in him being a viable saves source for long.
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The shoulder inflammation that plagued Rafael Devers all of last season and was particularly acute over the final two months wasn't thought to be an issue coming into spring training, but it delayed his first spring at-bat until March 15 and has kept him off the diamond entirely. He's expected to man DH on opening day, but how he'll perform is anyone's guess.
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A report in late February revealed that Freddie Freeman would be receiving treatment on his surgically repaired ankle throughout the first half and might need to sit occasionally to manage it, and then he was scratched from the Dodgers' two games in Tokyo with discomfort in the same place where he tore cartilage in his ribs last year. Two known health issues for a player in his mid-30s might be enough to reconsider the early-round investment in him.
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Still contending with the plantar fasciitis that plagued him last season, Brandon Nimmo was then held out for the first couple weeks of spring training with inflammation in his knee. His availability for opening day doesn't appear to be in jeopardy, but there's a sense that he won't hold together for long. (I don't so much share that concern and have enjoyed drafting him at a discount.)
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Between his bumpy finish last season and his reduced velocity this spring, there's a growing consensus that Robert Suarez will be one of the first closers ousted in 2025, losing out to any of several capable Padres relievers. Granted, most every closer's velocity has lagged this spring, but Suarez has received outsized attention given that he's so fastball-reliant.
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A few other losers: Ian Anderson, Evan Carter, Caleb Durbin, Carlos Estevez, Reynaldo Lopez, Jordan Walker
