That's right, I'm kicking off 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep in the most uplifting way possible: with all the players who I think could go wrong!
OK, so not all the players. "Bust" to me connotes a true bottoming out, so my focus here is on the most dramatic (but no less plausible) scenarios. Some of these 12 have considerable upside, and I would draft any one of them if he slipped far enough. But for each of them, I can picture total ruin (or something close to it, anyway), and I lay out what that looks like here.
There will be other chances during Draft Prep season for me to single out inefficient picks -- players who have no major red flags but are simply going earlier than they should -- so I've chosen not to do that here. Instead, I'm taking this opportunity to highlight all the potential land mines on your draft board so that if one does blow up in your face, you can't say no one saw it coming.
Chris Sale, SP, Braves
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NFBC ADP: 38.1
It brings me no joy to include Sale here after so often counting him among my Sleepers and watching it pay off spectacularly last year with a pitching Triple Crown and Cy Young award. But it's easier to prop up an injury-prone 35-year-old when expectations are at their lowest. Clearly, that's no longer where they are.
While the longtime ace proved my longstanding theory that he's every bit as talented as during his heyday, there's no denying his health history. And as much as we may revel in him staying healthy finally for the first time in five seasons, that's not strictly true. He made his final start on Sept. 19, being unavailable for the stretch run and postseason because of a back issue. It feels a little like those of us who invested in him got away with something sinister, and to attempt it again -- at a much greater cost, no less -- would be inviting divine punishment. So while my pre-2024 arguments about his continued effectiveness and the fluky nature of his injuries still apply, I'd need at least a one-round discount from his current ADP to bank on them again.
Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers
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NFBC ADP: 41.7
Beyond stupid. What are we doing here? For all of my misgivings about Chris Sale's injury history, he at least just proved to us he could hold together long enough to function as a Fantasy ace still. Jacob deGrom hasn't done that since, um ... 2019? And while I've already mentioned that Sale's injuries have largely been of the fluky variety, that's not the case for deGrom, who may be the poster child for pitchers whose actual physique can't hold up to the max-effort style of pitching demanded by today's game.
The sad part is that deGrom was an ace even before going max-effort, winning a pair of Cy Youngs. But his average fastball velocity jumped a couple miles per hour in 2020, and he hasn't thrown even 100 innings in a season since, with every single injury being to his throwing elbow or shoulder. I get that his per-inning production has been God-like, and let's presume that it still will be as a 36-year-old coming back from Tommy John surgery. Even then, the ADP here is so pie-in-the-sky as to qualify as psychosis.
I suppose you could argue that the diminished velocity we saw from him during his brief return last year is a good sign given that a spike in velocity precipitated his injury woes, but is that a serious train of thought to pursue in Round 4? I'd hesitate in Round 9.
Willy Adames, SS, Giants
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NFBC ADP: 70.9
I'm not denying how good Adames was in 2024, ranking as a top-15 hitter in both 5x5 and points scoring. I'm wondering what made him so good when he had an established track record of being an order of magnitude worse than that.
Sure, mid-career breakouts happen sometimes, but they're usually accompanied by some sort of skill change. A quick glance at his Statcast page reveals no such change, though. His average exit velocity was still just 40th percentile. It as well as his strikeout and walk rates were perfectly in line with career norms. Same for his .243 xBA and .461 x SLG. He wasn't measurably better at elevating or pulling the ball. He just had a lot go right, it seems like, resulting in his highest batting average since 2021 and career highs in most everything else.
The one possible skill change is with regard to base-stealing, which isn't to say he got any faster, but he may have learned a year later than most of the league how to exploit the new rules aimed at increasing stolen bases. Even if we presume it continues, which is a big "if" for a guy who never had even double-digit stolen bases previously, everything else points to him reverting to the .235-hitting, 25-homer guy we knew prior to 2024. And that's who he was in Milwaukee, one of the better places to hit. His move to league's worst home run park surely lowers his baseline.
Brenton Doyle, OF, Rockies
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NFBC ADP: 80.0
I don't want to overstate this one. Doyle could be everything he appeared to be in 2024, and the rewards if he is are considerable. But much of his success last season is owed to a white-hot July in which he hit .333 with 11 homers and a 1.194 OPS. For three of last season's six months, he hit .223 or worse with two home runs or fewer. He also hit .211 with a .636 OPS on the road, which isn't so unusual for a Rockies hitter but gives him a narrow margin for error at home, where he'll have to be nothing sort of a world-beater.
And then there's the fact he's just a year removed from a rookie season in which he struck out 35 percent of the time, an untenable number that's more in line with his minor-league track record than the 25.4 percent rate we saw last season. You could attribute the improvement to his stated efforts to be shorter to the ball, sure, but massive gains in strikeout rate don't always carry over from one year to the next.
The bottom line is that his path to Fantasy success is a tightrope walk, and any little misstep could send him tumbling. I can't say conclusively in what way he'll fall short, but enough ways exist that I'd rather play it safe with a Bryan Reynolds or Seiya Suzuki type unless I was just hard up for steals.
Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets
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NFBC ADP: 94.3
Vientos' big postseason in which he homered five times in 13 games likely cemented him as a breakthrough star in the minds of most Fantasy Baseballers. But at no point in his development did anyone doubt his power potential, and power hitters sometimes hit home runs in bunches. To treat that 13-game sample as more meaningful than any other would be a mistake, particularly when the power output also concealed a 33 percent strikeout rate.
And that's the source of my concern for Vientos. What earned him a place in the Mets lineup early last season was his seeming improvement as a contact hitter. But his 22 percent strikeout rate through June 30 gave way to a 33 percent strikeout rate the rest of the way, playoffs included, and that's a high mark for any hitter to overcome. He managed to bat .256 during that time, but with a .333 BABIP that doesn't jibe with a slow-footed thumper whose swing isn't so much geared for line drives. While Vientos' contact quality is high, it generally takes a true exit velocity outlier like Oneil Cruz or Elly De La Cruz to overcome a 30 percent strikeout rate with any regularity, and my fear is that Vientos could end up resembling a Patrick Wisdom or the worst-case version of Eugenio Suarez if it continues. His poor on-base skills and suspect glovework give him a narrower margin for error, too, particularly with alternatives like Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio lurking.
Spencer Steer, 1B/OF, Reds
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NFBC ADP: 110.6
My case against Steer is basically the same as a year ago, only now with some partial evidence to support it. His sophomore season could be deemed a success for Fantasy because he got his home runs and his stolen bases, but his batting average dropped nearly 50 points from his rookie season and his OPS nearly 100 points. And that's with him having a fairly excellent first couple weeks. From April 14 on, he hit .211 with a .675 OPS, and after the All-Star break, he hit .198 with a .634 OPS.
His problem comes down to a lack of thump, his average exit velocity ranking in only the 26th percentile and his max in only the 35th, but he fancies himself a power hitter with an elevated fly-ball rate (roughly 80th percentile) that yields too many outs on contact. His saving grace is that he plays half his games in the most home run-friendly ballpark, turning some would-be outs to home runs, but it's not performing miracles for him, clearly.
With the Reds' surplus of interesting options in both the infield and outfield (remember, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeimer Candelario all significantly underperformed last year, Matt McLain was injured the whole time, and now Gavin Lux has been added to the mix as well), I could see a scenario where Steer gets phased out, particularly if he comes out of the gate performing like he did in the second half.
Brice Turang, 2B, Brewers
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NFBC ADP: 136.6
Turang stole 50 bases last year, and in the minds of some longtime Rotisserie players, that's enough to make him Fantasy royalty. But with the new rules implemented in 2023, stolen bases aren't nearly as scarce as they've been for most of our Fantasy-playing lives. A whopping 50 players stole 20 bases or more last season, more than twice as many as in 2022, and most of those players, well, can actually hit.
Can Turang? Clearly, no one's counting on him for power production, which is no small knock against him. For a while last year, it looked like he might be a pretty good source of batting average, sort of another Nico Hoerner type. But the underlying numbers didn't really back it up (his strikeout rate, while respectable, isn't on Hoerner's level), and he wound up hitting .214 with a .551 OPS from July 1 on, which is roughly half the season. That line is also in line with the .218 batting average and .585 OPS he put together as a rookie in 2023, before anyone regarded him as any sort of Fantasy asset.
So more than likely, we're talking just stolen bases from this 12th-round pick being drafted ahead of Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Alec Bohm, to name a few. Maybe a few years ago, when someone with Turang's base-stealing prowess might have carried you in the category, paying the premium would have made some sense, but steals are too plentiful now for you to sell out so hard for them.
Ryan Pepiot, SP, Rays
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NFBC ADP: 161.1
I could start with how the drivers of Pepiot's success have been difficult to pin down. His walk rates have been all over the place, and he lacks the caliber of breaking ball normally required to succeed in the modern game. So already, it's hard to say what we're getting from the right-hander going into a new season, but that's a secondary matter that in and of itself wouldn't compel me to call him a bust. The real issue is where the Rays are scheduled to play their home games with Tropicana Field having been ravaged by Hurricane Milton.
That would be George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees' spring training facility in Tampa with the same dimensions as the big venue in New York. I'm talking about the one with the most famous short porch in baseball, making it a haven for left-handed hitters in a way Tropicana Field most certainly isn't. The environmental conditions of the Tampa facsimile will be even more conducive for home runs, with that damp Florida air serving as a catalyst for humidified baseballs.
It's going to be a launching pad, and for all of Pepiot's peculiarities, one constant is that he serves up fly balls, his 45.6 percent rate last year ranking 10th among pitchers with at least 130 innings. Barring a major skills change, I don't see how he keeps his ERA below 4.00, and a total wipeout is certainly on the table.
Ceddanne Rafaela, SS/OF, Red Sox
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NFBC ADP: 171.1
Rafaela is the sort of player whose flaws are better understood from a Head-to-Head points perspective, which you might think doesn't matter if you play in a 5x5 categories league, but if it brings about a collapse, the collapse is wholesale.
The problem is a total lack of plate discipline. The Head-to-Head points players know this from the minuscule number of walks (15 vs. 151 strikeouts) that basically disqualified Rafaela as a usable option, but 5x5 players have no reason to look into that stat except for curiosity's sake. They're just seeing the home run and stolen base totals and wondering if he could up them to 20 and 25 this year. Not if he's a sitting duck at the plate, and that's what his poor plate discipline could make him.
It's not just the lack of walks. It's the 79.6 percent zone-contact rate that ranked 122nd among 129 qualifying batters, according to FanGraphs. It's the 49.5 percent chase rate that ranked No. 1 among that same group of 129, with only nine being above 40 percent. What it means is that Rafaela is among the worst at both missing on pitches inside the zone and swinging at pitches outside the zone, which is a recipe for all of the worst hitting outcomes.
Even if he manages to exceed them, like in 2024, he's not going to be on base much, making him an easy casualty for up-and-comers like Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell. Meanwhile, Trevor Story and Vaughn Grissom are both healthy again, and David Hamilton is still kicking around. Don't presume Rafaela's defensive versatility will be enough to save him.
Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers
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NFBC ADP: 182.4
I like Carpenter in theory. His 162-game pace for home runs last year was 33. His .932 OPS would have ranked seventh among qualifiers. He was a prolific slugger in the minors and seems to grow more into that skill with each passing year in the majors, possibly setting him up for career-best numbers at age 27.
Pretty sweet, huh? Unfortunately, those theoretical observations may be blinding people to the reality that he only plays against right-handers. And I mean only in the strictest sense, as in he had 32 plate appearances against lefties last year. He batted .107 in those appearances and is a career .202 hitter with a .588 OPS against lefties, which, as a 27-year-old corner man, basically condemns him to a platoon role forevermore.
I wish it wasn't so, but it is. So why Carpenter deserves to go more than 200 spots ahead of Joc Pederson, who had a .908 OPS with the exact same playing time share (though for a different team, obviously) is beyond me. OK, so Carpenter is outfield-eligible and Pederson isn't, but even when Pederson was, we weren't calling him a top-200 player. For however sparkly Carpenter's percentages may look, his totals are likely to keep him fringy.
Luis Gil, SP, Yankees
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NFBC ADP: 185.8
The case isn't particularly difficult to make here because I think we've already seen what a busted Gil looks like. But because he went on to win AL Rookie of the Year and because most evaluations are made using full-season stat lines, it's easy to overlook just how bad Gil's second half was.
So here's how bad it was: Over his final 15 starts -- which comes out to more than half his season, actually -- he had a 5.15 ERA AND 1.44 WHIP. He had only three quality starts during that time in part because he only three times lasted the minimum six innings required for a quality start. He was inefficient, reverting to the same control issues that plagued him prior to his Tommy John surgery, and he became even more susceptible to home runs as his fly-ball rate inched toward 50 percent while playing in one of the league's more homer-friendly venues.
And it could have been so much worse, judging by the ERA estimators. His 4.36 xFIP, 4.14 FIP, and 3.83 xERA all well exceed his actual 3.50 mark. As bad as his collapse was, he still overachieved for the year, and there's a chance the collapsed version with the 5.15 ERA over his final 15 starts is closer to his true form anyway, given his struggles to throw strikes and keep the ball in the yard. If that's the version of Gil that shows up to begin 2025, I don't know how long he keeps his rotation spot.
Taj Bradley, SP, Rays
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NFBC ADP: 187.7
Remember how the Rays are scheduled to spend this season at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, a miniature version of Yankee Stadium in the sweltering humidity of Central Florida? Well, Ryan Pepiot isn't the only one of their pitchers about to learn how much shorter that short porch plays in a climate more conducive to carry. Bradley might be the single pitcher most at risk, in fact, given that his 1.4 HR/9 ranked 12th among the 96 pitchers with at least 130 innings last season.
He had a dominant nine-start stretch in the middle of the season during which his splitter played to perfection, but when it wasn't dropping to its fullest extent, he gave up exceptionally hard contact. In fact, his average exit velocity was in the second percentile for the year. It was in the fifth percentile just the year before, so we're not talking about some kind of statistical oddity.
How's that going to work out for him at Swampbrenner Field? My guess is "not well," and if he spends a portion of the 2025 season in the minors, it wouldn't be the most stunning development. I understand pursuing the upside that led to a 0.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 during that incredible nine-start stretch midseason. I'm just not sure that this year's oddball circumstances make for a great time to pursue it.
