2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Sleepers 2.0 for Scott White adds Jac Caglianone, Bryce Eldridge to the mix
There's plenty of thump to be found at bargain rates
Back in late January, I shared with you my first round of sleepers for 2026. If you missed them then, you can still view them now by scrolling down to The Holdovers in this very article.
But some things have changed since I made those selections, not the least of which is me drafting more and observing firsthand some of the inefficiencies in this year's draft pool.
- Sleepers 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
And I'll remind you that's all a sleeper is: An inefficiency to be exploited. It doesn't mean the player is young or destined to improve. It simply means he's not getting the appreciation he deserves.
It's getting harder to find such players, given how advancements like Statcast have flattened the knowledge curve. To corner an inefficiency now, you have to wade into gaps in our collective knowledge, having the courage to venture into the blind spots that we all share.
That's certainly true for the first of my additions to Sleepers 2.0.
THE NEWCOMERS
Trevor Rogers, SP, Orioles
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FantasyPros ADP: 140.0
I have a hang-up about calling a player who just had a career season a "sleeper," but the label isn't meant for the players most likely to improve. It's meant for the players who are being overlooked, and in that way, Rogers is the very model of the modern sleeper. At a time when the most predictive data is so advanced and easily digestible, you're not going to unearth some hidden gem. The data darlings are known far and wide and elevated beyond the point anyone could call them a sleeper.
No, the players who slip through the cracks are the ones who invite skepticism, and that's Rogers, precisely because he's coming off a career season. The three seasons before? He had a 5.09 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, rendering him basically unusable in Fantasy, and nobody wants to be the sucker who buys into the one-year wonder.
But what if he's not a one-year wonder? We already have evidence for that, seeing as he was runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year in 2021. The subsequent years were ravaged by injury, which took such a toll that by the time he went looking for answers at Driveline just prior to last season, the famed facility's analysis of his delivery suggested he should only be throwing 84 mph. It took everything he had to average 92, as he was doing at the time. With the additional strength training and delivery tweaks prescribed by Driveline, he began throwing a much easier 93 mph last season, which had the added effect of greatly improving his control.
So yes, there was definitely something to the improvements. Rogers didn't come about his 1.81 ERA by accident. That's not to say anyone should expect a repeat, but if that number is more in line with his 2.82 FIP or even his 3.40 xERA, he'll be well worth drafting as the 45th starting pitcher, behind the likes of a declining Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo.
Isaac Paredes, 3B, Astros
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FantasyPros ADP: 190.8
We're doing this again, huh? Clearly, not everyone learned their lesson last time. Daikin Park, being only 315 feet down the line thanks to its short left field porch known as the Crawford Boxes, is the perfect home venue for Paredes, who doesn't actually have power but fakes it by taking aim for the left field foul pole. A year ago, I predicted that first season in Houston would look a lot like Alex Bregman's final two -- during which the now-Cubs third baseman hit .261 with a .787 OPS and an average of 25.5 home runs in an average of 153 games -- and, sure enough, if you prorate Paredes' numbers last year over 153 games (he missed a couple months with a hamstring strain), you get a .254 batting average, 30 home runs and .809 OPS.
The proof is in the pudding, then. So why the continued skepticism? OK, it's less about performance than opportunity. I just wanted to stress that his performance should no longer be in question, despite the little blue icicles populating his Baseball Savant page. As for opportunity, yeah, the Astros acquired Carlos Correa to fill in when Paredes was ailing last year and weren't able to free up the logjam this offseason by trading away Christian Walker as planned. So, Paredes is a player without a position, which is not the kind of player anyone likes to draft.
He has a position, though, and it's middle-of-the-order bat. Ask yourself who in the Astros lineup is better than him. You could make an argument for Pena, maybe, but the only decisive answer is Yordan Alvarez, and surely, the Astros themselves know this. By reintroducing Paredes to second base this spring, he has four potential paths to playing time, DH included. Now, consider the players occupying those spots. Correa is hurt half the time. Alvarez is no stranger to injuries himself. Jose Altuve and Walker are both in their mid-30s, and the latter may not even be good anymore. As weak as third base is, I'll take the chance 90 picks after Bregman is gone that Paredes will play nearly every day as a super utility player and have lengthy stretches as an injury fill-in. Already, Jeremy Pena's broken finger may present such an opportunity, and I didn't even list him among the injury-prone.
Jac Caglianone, OF, Royals
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FantasyPros ADP: 213.0
It's easy to sleep on a player who hit .157 and slugged .295 last year, even if only in 200 plate appearances. But going by the most rudimentary assessment of whether Caglianone deserved it, the answer is a resounding no. Statcast has his expected batting average and slugging percentage at .237 and .431, respectively.
Still not impressed? Well, let's consider why Statcast is so charitable to him. During his short time in the majors, he hit a ball as hard as 114.1 mph, which is a number only 10 percent of hitters reached for the year. Meanwhile, he struck out at just a 22 percent rate, which would be an impressive mark for any hitter in his first tour of duty, but particularly one with that kind of power. Moreover, Caglianone has always stood out for his high contact quality and quantity. His exit velocities in college were the stuff of legends, and his first extended look in the minors last year, prior to his promotion, saw him hit .337 with 20 homers and a 1.025 in 66 games while striking out just 18.8 percent of the time. He was taken two picks after Nick Kurtz in the 2024 draft and surged to the majors nearly as quickly. He just didn't take to it right away.
But if early spring results are any indication, that's about to change. Already, he's hit a ball 120 mph, which you might dismiss as a fluke except that he also reached that threshold both in the minors last year and in college the year prior. It's also hard to call it a fluke when only seven players have ever achieved it in a major league game: Oneil Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, Ronald Acuna, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Shohei Ohtani. Caglianone has exceeded 115 mph on two other batted balls this spring, including a 460-foot home run.
Shouldn't we give a rookie with that kind of upside a pass for a partial season of struggles? The answer there is an emphatic yes, and in leagues where drafters know what they're doing, you can't expect to get him as late as Pick 200 anymore. Still, the upside is worth pursuing in a range where Gleyber Torres and Aaron Nola are normally going off the board.
Daylen Lile, OF, Nationals
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FantasyPros ADP: 233.8
Even the most plugged-in Fantasy Baseballers may not have heard of Lile until last September. By that point, he had been in the majors for three months and was playing close to every day, but he hadn't made much of an impression yet. That changed rather abruptly. He not only batted .391 in the season's final month but also collected 16 extra-base hits, including three doubles, seven triples, and six home runs. He averaged an Aaron Judge-like 4.42 Head-to-Head points per game for that month.
I have a feeling it's just the tip of the iceberg. No, Lile isn't going to compete with Judge for Fantasy prominence, but he's going to excel beyond what his ADP or lack of stature would suggest. Forget September -- it was just the culmination of what his other numbers were pointing to. Between his Jose Altuve-like 16 percent strikeout rate and his Freddie Freeman-like 27 percent line-drive rate -- both of which were carried over from the minors, by the way -- Lile is built for batting average. Don't believe me? Well, Statcast put his xBA as a rookie last year in the 100th percentile. Nobody rated higher. But he's not some Luis Arraez clone. He has pop in his bat and angles the ball correctly to take advantage, with a pull-air rate in the upper half of the league. Bottom line is Lile makes a ton of contact, and it's the best kind of contact, with very little of it coming on the ground.
And, oh yeah, speed! He ranked in the 92nd percentile, leaving him plenty of room to improve on his eight steals in 91 games. He might just be the complete package. And lest you presume he's some late bloomer due to his lack of prospect credentials, allow me to point out that he's only 23, which is all the more reason to look past whatever rough edges he presents. Lile has ample job security on a bottom-feeder club and offers both the baseball skills and natural tools to blast off this year.
Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies
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FantasyPros ADP: 244.4
I mentioned in my write-up for Isaac Paredes that third base is weak. It's not the first place I've said it, and if you'd like to delve deeper into that, you can check out my article on third base strategies. Most would say there aren't even enough to go around in a 12-team league, which makes it all the more perplexing that Bohm is going off the board nearly 100 picks later than a year ago.
Folks, he's the same guy. Nothing has changed for him, including his projection. Yeah, he had a couple IL stints in 2025, which dragged down his totals, but his percentages were right where they always are. His .287 batting average was actually a new high, though at .279 for his career, it's always been a big part of his appeal. He also bats in a prominent RBI spot, behind the illustrious trio of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper, which is how he racked up 97 in both 2023 and 2024. Sure, he's likely to top out at 15 homers or so, which is an underwhelming number for a corner infielder, but that's always been the case. Drafters had decided it was worth it for a B-plus in batting average and RBI.
I don't know if talk of the Phillies potentially moving on from Bohm early this offseason dinged his draft stock early, and it never recovered. I don't know if people are looking at his 59 RBI from last year and not considering the context of them. But I know Bohm is an incredible bargain this year, particularly in leagues that are required to go deeper into the corner infield pool (like standard Rotisserie).
Bryce Eldridge, DH, Giants
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FantasyPros ADP: 334.4
What if I told you that a consensus top-25 prospect with 70-grade power and no one blocking his ascension to the majors was a part of this year's draft pool? Where would you expect him to go? 150th? 200th at the latest? Try 334th, behind the likes of an injured Anthony Volpe, a cast-aside Nick Catellanos, and a washed-up Nolan Arenado, not to mention scrubby pitchers like Mitch Keller and Michael Wacha.
The complicating factors for Eldridge, I suppose, are that he went 3 for 23 with 13 strikeouts in his first taste of the majors late last year and that he spent most of that time at DH, denying him eligibility at any position for the start of 2026. But a 20-year-old thrust into major league duty for the first time is allowed to struggle for a week or two or 12 before it alters his outlook, and as for the lack of position eligibility, so what? You have a utility spot, don't you? And by the way, four of his 10 major league appearances last year came at first base, where he's expected to continue to trade off with Rafael Devers this year, so he won't be confined to your utility spot for long. First base runs pretty thin in the sort of leagues deep enough that Eldridge is draftable (like standard Rotisserie), which makes the lack of interest in him all the more perplexing.
I'm not even his biggest backer, as far as prospect evaluation goes, believing that his 6-foot-7 frame could present longstanding contact issues, but I'm not so beholden to my little theories that I'm going to pass up this sort of upside play at this sort of discount. Given the fervor that normally accompanies prospects with a chance of making the opening day roster, the widespread disinterest in one who's all but secured a job already is the most baffling of this year's drafting behaviors.
THE HOLDOVERS
Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves
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FantasyPros ADP: 131.6
The outlook for Albies seems to presume that what we've the past two years is what we'll get, but I'm here to tell you it's more complicated than that. Yes, he's missed extensive time due to injuries, playing fewer than 100 games in two of the past four years. Yes, his production the past two years was worse than the early-round standard he once set. So injury-prone and on the decline ... what's left to get excited about?
But that perspective presumes that the injuries and decline are not related, when I'm of the belief that they are. First of all, Albies is only 29, which is the prime of a player's career and not a point when you'd expect decline to begin. He was remarkably consistent for the first six years of his career, delivering 25-30 homers with 15 or so steals, a solid-to-good batting average, and the kind of run and RBI production that comes with playing 150-plus games a year. Something happened to disrupt that steadiness.
Let's consider the nature of the injuries. The 2025 one was a broken hamate bone on a janky swing. The 2024 one was a fractured wrist on an ill-begotten tag. He's also missed time over the past four years with a broken toe, a broken pinky, and a broken foot. These aren't deep tissue injuries but one-time, high-impact events, which is to say not the sort of injuries that you'd expect to be repeated.
But they could have lingering effects. That's especially true of the broken wrist he suffered in 2024. In fact, when he returned that September, he had to abandon switch-hitting to manage the pain, which dragged down his numbers further. He was back to switch-hitting at the start of 2025, but we know the injury still bothered him because his hitting coach told us. Only around midseason did it begin to feel right again, and for a 66-game stretch between July 10 and Sept. 22, he hit .268 (68 for 254) with 10 homers, seven steals and a .762 OPS -- a more typical Ozzie Albies line. Then came the fractured hamate bone, ending his season before his numbers could fully normalize.
We know the real Albies is still in there because we just saw it for his latest 66-game stretch. Could the hamate bone injury linger into 2026, same as the fractured wrist in 2025? Sure, and a discount is warranted because of that. The downside risk may be greater now, but he could absolutely perform like a third-rounder still at the weakest infield position.
Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates
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FantasyPros ADP: 180.6
This one is pretty straightforward, actually. We all knew who Reynolds was prior to 2025. He had put together about the same stat line for four straight years. It wasn't flashy, but it was bankable, and it routinely got him drafted within the first 80 picks.
So what happened in 2025? Well, he stopped being bankable, delivering career lows across the board (leaving out 2020, of course) despite enjoying his usual good health. With that trust broken, he's not even being drafted within the first 180 picks, much less the first 80. But what if I told you he's still the same player he's always been?
Part of what made Reynolds' consistency so noteworthy is that consistency is not the norm in baseball. The huge sample of games goes a long way toward bringing the numbers in line, but there are still so many factors outside of a player's control and so many outcomes that rely on the most precise of movements. A small, almost imperceptible change in the positioning of one's hands can have significant downstream effects. So while the shape of a player's production generally doesn't change much from one year to the next, the range of outcomes is typically wider than it's been for Reynolds.
Variance, we call it, and it turns out even he's not immune to it. I'm not saying the decline was entirely random -- if you dig around enough, you'll find articles denoting that Reynolds tinkered with his swing more than usual, which may have had some deleterious effects -- but when is variance ever truly random? The bottom line is that he set career highs for both average and max exit velocity, which you wouldn't think would indicate decline. He may have sacrificed some contact to do so, but his .259 xBA and .447 xSLG were right in line with career norms. And his performance over the final two months -- in which he slashed .274/.375/.468 with six homers in 52 games -- was as well.
If the core components remain intact and were good enough to make him a top-100 pick since forever ago, don't let the rare hiccup scare you off of him. Just enjoy the discount.
Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Blue Jays
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FantasyPros ADP: 197.0
The talk of Japan's big free agent class this offseason has centered on either Munetaka Murakami and his prodigious, top-of-the-scales power or Tatsuya Imai and his curiously effective arsenal. But then there's the other guy, Okamoto, who may actually be the most valuable of the three. You can scroll up and see his numbers from an injury-plagued 2025. They may have been inflated somewhat by the small sample, but were very much in character. Four times in the past eight years, he's had an OPS over .900. Twice, he's batted over .300. Six times, he's hit 30 homers or more.
I think most longtime Fantasy Baseballers are still in the habit of adjusting down for players coming over from Japan since the standard of competition there is lower than the majors, but what they may be overlooking is that the NBL has become an incredibly oppressive hitting environment, which analysts sometimes refer to as Japan's dead-ball era. In that context, Okamoto's already eye-popping numbers become, frankly, unbelievable. To put it in perspective, his wRC+ in Japan last year was 210, meaning he was more than twice as good as league average (which is 100). Aaron Judge was the major league leader at 204, and no one else was above 172.
Sure, there are other distinctions between the NBL and the majors that make it not an apples-to-apples comparison -- different balls, smaller ballparks, etc. -- but if the reported exit velocity readings are correct, Okamoto's 92.4 mph average and 112.2 mph max would suggest his power will translate to any league. It's not quite on the level of Murakami's, but it's more than enough. Their respective strikeout rates (11.3 percent for Okamoto and 28.6 percent for Murakami) may be the more meaningful distinction between the two.
Bottom line is that Okamoto has the more functional skill set, boasting legitimate thump, supreme bat-to-ball skills, and an optimized launch angle. And he may be a godsend at third base, for as weak as that position is shaping up to be.
Marcus Semien, 2B, Mets
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FantasyPros ADP: 197.4
Part of the reason I'm OK with waiting at second base despite the shortage of difference-makers at the top of the position is that I think it has two clear bounce-back candidates. One is Albies, who I've already covered. The other is Semien, who makes a similar case as a former early-round mainstay whose decline may not be all it appears to be.
That's harder to say because he's 35 and not 29, but the underlying data is unchanged from his youth. The plate discipline remains good. The pull-air rate remains high. The exit velocities aren't great, but they never were. If anything, they're peaking higher now.
One trend we've seen in recent years is the ball playing deader during the coldest months of the year, meaning April into May, and hitters with lower exit velocities are naturally most affected by that. So I find it unremarkable that Semien was hitting .173 with a .485 OPS through May 28 last year. What I find more remarkable is that he hit .270 with 12 homers, eight steals, and an .801 OPS in 71 games thereafter. It wasn't enough to restore his full-season numbers, but it did resemble prime Semien. Maybe if he had gotten a full September rather than fracturing his foot on Aug. 21, the narrative concerning him would be different now.
Still not convinced? I might not be either if not for one notable offseason development: He's on the Mets now. Like I said, the exit velocities have always been bad for Semien, but a hitter can make up for that with a high-pull-air rate, which he has, and a more forgiving home venue, which he also now has. Citi Field plays well for right-handed power, especially fringier right-handed power like Semien's. Statcast's expected home runs by ballpark shows that he'd have hit 20 more home runs playing every game there over the past three years.
If the venue change is enough to restore Semien to 20-25 homers to go along with a .240-.250 batting average, good on-base skills, and maybe a dozen steals, that's as good as you're going to get from Jose Altuve, who's going more than 100 picks earlier.
Kris Bubic, SP, Royals
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FantasyPros ADP: 213.8
First-and-10, let's do it again. Bubic was my most drafted player last year,r and one of my clutchest sleeper picks ... for about half a season. He ended up being shut down in July with a strained rotator cuff, but such are the perils of investing in pitching. It's best when you can get a significant impact from a small investment, and that's how it played out for Bubic last year, even with the missed time.
Looks like it could play out that way again. Even though we have proof of concept now that his improvements as a reliever will translate to a starting role, drafters aren't taking him seriously. He had a Head-to-Head point-per-game average (14.4) akin to Framber Valdez, but he's being drafted alongside Jack Flaherty. He had a swinging-strike rate (13.4 percent) on par with Garrett Crochet, but he's being drafted like Merrill Kelly.
I don't know if it's due to concerns over the shoulder, which would seem overblown given that he's back to pitching this spring. I suspect it's more of an out-of-sight, out-of-mind situation in which Bubic's disappearance coincided with the arrival of a bunch more interesting arms like Cam Schlittler and Nolan McLean. They're the hot new thing. Bubic is yesterday's news.
But he could be tomorrow's as well. I have a feeling that if he starts piling up strikeouts this spring, he'll fly up draft boards. I'm happy to accumulate as many shares as I can in the meantime.
Sal Stewart, 1B, Reds
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FantasyPros ADP: 230.0
From the time the Reds took him in the first round of the 2022 draft, Stewart was a fringe top-100 prospect for his hitterish qualities -- i.e., good plate discipline and a line-drive approach -- and hope for future power. Let's just say that hope has been fulfilled. There were hints of it during his stint at Double-A Chattanooga to begin last year, where he homered 10 times in 80 games, but then, after moving up to Triple-A Louisville, where Statcast data is publicly available, it became even clearer what was going on.
Not only did he homer 10 times in 38 games there, slashing .315/.394/.629, but his exit velocities readings measured near the top of the charts, with an average (93.1 mph) and a max (113.7) resembling Fernando Tatis. He maintained those exit velocities after reaching the majors and made an immediate splash with four home runs in his first 11 games. But then manager Terry Francona stopped playing him, even with the Reds fighting for a playoff spot, which prevented Stewart from fully ingratiating himself with Fantasy Baseballers.
Word this spring is that even with the signing of Eugenio Suarez to man DH, Stewart is expected to have a full-time role as the team's primary first baseman, with Spencer Steer playing mostly left field. There's so much to like here, given the amount and caliber of the contact and the likelihood he'll emerge as more of the on-base threat he was in the minors. I'm envisioning a cross between Josh Naylor and Vinnie Pasquantino, including maybe even a small dose of Naylor's newfound base-stealing ability. And there's a small possibility Stewart can pick up eligibility at second and/or third base, two positions that he also played in the minors.
Ramon Laureano, OF, Padres
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FantasyPros ADP: 236.6
Between his first two teams, the Athletics and the Guardians, Laureano developed a reputation as a part-timer with poor on-base skills. He's having a hard time shaking that reputation in Fantasy. How else can you explain the complete disinterest in him despite the way he's performed over the past year and a half?
Sure, I was skeptical when he hit .296 with an .832 OPS in 67 games for the Braves in 2024 (as were they, seeing as they didn't bring him back), but then he hit .290 with an .884 OPS in 82 games for the Orioles and .269 with an .812 OPS in 50 games for the Padres. It adds up to a .286 batting average, 34 home runs, and .847 OPS in his past 199 games. His wRC+ during that time is 19th in all of baseball, ahead of Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis, Rafael Devers and Julio Rodriguez, to name a few.
There remain obvious flaws in his profile. He's still a low on-base guy (just imagine how high his OPS would be otherwise), and his strikeouts tend to run hot. But be reasonable, guys. He's now sustained this level of production over multiple seasons and across three different environments. I think it's proven to be durable.
That's not to say I'm taking it entirely at face value. San Diego, where he remains, is the most difficult of the three environments where he's excelled. But my initial inclination was to rank him 42nd among outfielders. To see him being drafted 60th makes him one of the easiest choices you could make in a five-outfielder league.
Carter Jensen, C, Royals
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FantasyPros ADP: 244.8
I had known Jensen was a catcher prospect in the Royals system for a few years now, but I had never considered him for my preseason top 100 or even regarded him as a serious Fantasy asset. It was only after the Royals promoted him in September that I was forced to take a second look, and that look made me a believer.
The biggest eye-opener was the 94 mph average exit velocity at Triple-A. That's a number matched by only five major leaguers, three of whom are 50-homer guys: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Kyle Schwarber. The way Jensen impacts the ball is akin to the elite sluggers in the game, and here's the craziest part: It got better after he reached the majors. His 95.4 mph average exit velocity in 20 games with the Royals was topped by only one qualifying major league hitter, Oneil Cruz.
But there's the rub, right? It's all fun and games when you're comparing Jensen to Judge, but the Cruz comp shows how wrong things could go. Ask yourself, though, why does Cruz fail to deliver on his exit velocities? Two reasons: a lack of contact and a failure to angle properly. Not only are these issues not a problem for Jensen, but he's excellent at them. His chase rate was among the best at Triple-A, and his zone-contact rate ranked in the upper 40 percent of the league. He gave back a little in both areas after reaching the majors, but still had a 13 percent walk rate vs. a 17 percent strikeout rate, confirming plate discipline to be a strength. His pull-air rate (20.8 percent) was also on the higher end.
I see no flaws in him as a hitter, and it all translated so effortlessly to the majors that I may be willing to call Jensen the most underrated player in Fantasy. I suppose some may question his playing time with Salvador Perez in the fold, but I think the Royals know what they have here. By the final two weeks, Jensen was starting every game alongside Perez. The two can flip-flop between catcher and DH and never miss a beat.
Joe Musgrove, SP, Padres
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FantasyPros ADP: 249.4
This is less about me being especially high on Musgrove than everyone just forgetting about him, seemingly. If you count yourself among them, let me assure you, he didn't retire. He's simply spent the past year and a half recovering from Tommy John surgery, a common procedure with generally favorable outcomes.
Not foolproof, but generally favorable. We used to understand the difference, but I think some recent misses on the Tommy John front have made us more wary of it. I think? It's only a theory. Maybe people just need to be reminded who Musgrove is, so I'll do that right now.
Scroll up, and you'll see his numbers from the last time he was active, 2024, which are solid enough. Sort of what you'd expect from Sonny Gray or Tanner Bibee, volume aside. Very useful. Now understand that it was a year impacted by injury. His elbow was barking from the outset, and he didn't go under the knife until after the season. In the three years before 2024, Musgrove had a 3.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9, going 180-plus innings in two of them. Those numbers are more like we'd expect from, what, Max Fried?
So again, I'll stress that Tommy John surgery isn't foolproof, but generally favorable. You know what helps tip the scales more toward "generally favorable?" Having ample time to recover. Musgrove will have had a full 18 months. He's been full-go in spring training and isn't expected to have any workload limitations this year, according to his manager. So what exactly is the hesitation here? To me, the risk/reward calculation comes out at least 50 picks ahead of where it's currently going. Maybe even 100.
Shane Smith, SP, White Sox
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FantasyPros ADP: 281.8
Smith got some attention at various points last season, certainly outperforming expectations for a Rule 5 pick, but in most people's estimation, he settled into being a mid-level starter for a bad team, which would make him just a streamer option in most Fantasy leagues.
But I'm intrigued by what he did in the second half. Following a brief hiatus, he came back to deliver a 3.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9 in 11 starts, his swinging-strike rate climbing from a Jose Soriano-like 11.3 percent to a Freddy Peralta-like 12.8 percent. Improved strike-throwing was partly to credit for it. So was the continued development of a kick change, an offering that the White Sox introduced to him to mimic the downward movement of his curveball. The two played off each other to perfection down the stretch, pushing the whiff rate on Smith's curveball over 50 percent for the final two months. It ended up at 48 percent for the season, which is about as good as you'll ever see. Among pitchers who threw at least 300 curveballs last year, Smith's whiff rate was the second-highest.
How often do you see a pitcher make those kinds of strides over his rookie season? Between his high-90s fastball and whifftastic curveball, Smith already had some good weapons to work with, and pitching coach Ethan Katz has instilled him with a more cohesive arsenal and clearer method of attack. There may be some unrealized home run risk, judging by his fly-ball rate and exit velocity readings, but all in all, the second-half version of Smith may well be closer to the real one. If nothing else, I would say there's less daylight between him and Ryan Pepiot than the 150 spots in ADP would suggest.
