We did it. We made it to the All-Star break. It's a cliche, but the MLB season really is a marathon, and that's true for Fantasy Baseball, too. Think about it this way: We're 17 weeks into the season, which means a full Fantasy Football season would already be done, and we've still got two and a half months left.
The break is a good time to stop and take stock of your team to try to figure out what kind of moves you need to make moving forward. As I wrote about in my look at the waiver wire targets Sunday afternoon, where you sit in the standings can play a big role in how you should approach your roster moves the rest of the way. If you're doing well, you might only need tweaks here and there, though you might also do well to look for some consolidation trades, turning helpful depth into more impact starters, so you can have the best possible starting lineups for the all-important August and September weeks.
On the other hand, if you're on the outside looking in for the playoff picture, you're running out of time to change that, which means it might be time for some big swings. That could mean extra-aggressive bids on high-variance waiver-wire targets like Rece Hinds and Lawrence Butler, but it could also mean taking a chance on struggling studs like Corbin Carroll, Randy Arozarena, or Pablo Lopez, in the hopes that they catch fire and turn your season around along with theirs.
No guarantee will work, of course, but with the playoffs a month or so away in many leagues, does it really matter if you end up in 10th place or seventh place if you miss the playoffs in both situations? If you ain't first, it doesn't mean you're last, if you ain't in the playoffs, you might as well be.
In the rest of today's newsletter, I've got my thoughts on some of the biggest performances from around MLB this weekend, and in the rest of the week, we'll be looking backward and forward, with some All-Star-centric coverage tomorrow, and then a trade deadline preview Wednesday. And Thursday, I'll have my second-half mailbag right here for you, so don't forget to send those questions to FantasyBaseball@CBSi.com with the subject line "Ask FBT" to get your questions included. Let's go make that run for the title.
Weekend Standouts
Good pitching
Dylan Cease, Padres vs. ATL: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K – Cease had been struggling since the middle of June, but the thing that was promising about it was that it wasn't because he was suddenly walking everyone, which was how things have tended to go sideways for Cease in the past. He racked up a whopping 27 swinging strikes in this one with his typical pitch mix and remains a top-10 pitcher for me the rest of the way.
Gerrit Cole, Yankees @BAL: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Cole continued to fade his slider more than we've been used to from him, but it finally returned the results we're looking for, with an arsenal-high five whiffs in this one. I'm not quite sure I get why Cole has traded so many sliders for cutters, and I don't think he'll consistently pitch like himself until he reverses that trend, but it was still nice to see a start where he looked more or less like himself, for the first time since coming back from his elbow injury.
Luis Gil, Yankees @BAL: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – That's two excellent starts in a row for Gil, with just one walk between them, and that's the key thing. When he's throwing strikes, Gil has proven he can be just about unhittable, and he's gotten back to throwing about half of his pitches in the strike zone in three July starts; he was down to 42% in June. I still have concerns about how sustainable all this will be for Gil, who likely has some kind of innings maintenance coming at some point, but I'm starting him moving forward for as long as he's out there.
Taj Bradley, Rays vs. CLE: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Given the matchup, this is probably Bradley's most impressive start of the season, which is saying something, because he's been quite good all along. The decision to prioritize his splitter continues to look brilliant, because while it isn't consistently a dominant swing-and-miss pitch – he had just three whiffs with it in this one – it has had a tendency to limit damage on contact, which has been Bradley's biggest issue in the majors. It also helps that his harder cutter is also generating significantly better results than it did last season, Bradley's underlying numbers don't entirely support the growth he's shown this season, but his quality of contact metrics have consistently improved since his May debut, so I'm not really doubting it, either.
Blake Snell, Giants vs. MIN: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Hey, finally, a start where Snell looked like himself. I went away from him in the leagues I have him this week, and I missed out on 12 shutout innings with two hits, 11 strikeouts, and three walks total, which doesn't feel great. But I'll stand by that decision every time because we needed to see something from Snell before we could start him with confidence. What we saw Sunday was a fastball/curveball combo that both generated nine swinging strikes, plus three more with his changeup – Snell totally faded his slider, throwing it just once, which is weird, but Snell notoriously changes his pitch mix regularly – including a notable fading of his slider late during his Cy Young winning 2023. I'm starting him with confidence next week.
Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers @HOU: 7 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – I don't have much to say here – Eovaldi has allowed three runs in three July starts, and has proven he can be a very effective pitcher as long as he is 100% healthy. It's just a question of how long you can expect that to last – history suggests it won't.
Reynaldo Lopez, Braves @SD: 6 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – It's a quality start, so we'll put him under this heading, but I don't know how you can feel confident about Lopez after this one. I've had him pegged as a sell-high candidate – and a second-half-bust candidate – for months, so I'm certainly inclined to take the negative slant on this one. But he also just hasn't pitched nearly as well as his results for basically the entire first half and his 4.23 xERA suggests his 1.88 ERA makes him one of the luckiest pitchers in the league. That luck mostly held in this one, but regression is coming fast in the second half.
Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves @SD: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – I'm still waiting for Schwellenbach to put together a truly great game, something he hasn't really done yet. But the results have mostly been pretty solid, with four quality starts in his past six. There have been some solid strikeout performances before this one, including at least six in his previous four starts, so I don't want to hold this one against him, especially against the least strikeout-prone team in the majors. His xERA is down to 3.53, and if he can find a way to generate strikeouts more consistently – I'll note here that his splitter has an elite 44% whiff rate – Schwellenbach could put together a really nice second half.
Spencer Arrighetti, Astors vs. TEX: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – I remain intrigued by Arrighetti, but I'm also still not sure he's thrown two good starts in a row yet. His most recent two might be the closest he's come – he allowed two runs over five innings in his previous outing. Arrighetti's changeup was the star here, as he nearly tripled his usage and generated five whiffs and a 38% CSW rate. The component parts of Arrighetti's arsenal all mostly look pretty good, but his fastball especially has been inconsistent, so maybe featuring the secondaries could be a path to success moving forward? I'm holding where I have him, if not necessarily rushing out to add him.
Jose Soriano, Angels vs. SEA: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K – Soriano is kind of starting to turn himself into early-career Framber Valdez, generating tons of weak groundball contact that mostly makes up for middling strikeout and walk rates, though not enough to make him much more than a streamer for Fantasy. The key will be figuring out how to improve the strikeout and walk rates like Valdez has, and there's no shortage of potential paths, as Soriano's curveball, splitter, and slider all have looked like good strikeout pitches. If he figures out a way to emphasize those without losing the elite groundball rates, he could take another step forward.
Luis Ortiz, Pirates @CHW: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Over his past three starts, Ortiz has 17 strikeouts and one walk, while allowing two earned runs in 17.2 innings; he also had a relief appearance where he struck out four over two innings of work in that stretch. He's emphasized his slider and four-seamer more in that stretch, and both have been excellent pitches for him. That could be the path forward, and Ortiz is worth a look in deeper leagues.
Bad Pitching
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks vs. TOR: 3.2 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – At the risk of oversimplifying here, I just don't think Gallen had the feel for his curveball in this one. He threw just 14 of them and didn't generate a single swinging strike with it; in fact, he got just one called strike with it and threw just two of them in the strike zone. That is Gallen's bread-and-butter pitch, and it's not hard to see how he would struggle if it wasn't working for him. Coming off a couple of rough starts, I can see how you might be concerned about Gallen, but as long as he's healthy, I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt that he'll figure things out.
Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles vs. NYY: 5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Rodriguez still seems prone to the occasional blowup start like this, as this was the third time this season where he has allowed at least six runs in an outing. Otherwise, he's been mostly excellent this season, but the ERA might just remain a little more inflated than you might otherwise expect, mostly because he's still struggling to limit hard contact. He does almost everything well, but he just isn't quite at that ace level yet, especially in terms of consistency.
Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays @ARI: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Well, that's a disappointing showing, especially coming off Kikuchi's 13-strikeout gem the last time out. His fastball was dominant in his previous start, but it got hit hard in this one, with an average exit velocity of at 96.2 mph on seven balls in play. Kikuchi now has a 6.56 over his past 10 starts, mostly because his fastball has been giving up a lot of loud contact. I have faith that Kikuchi will figure things out, but this has gone on long enough that I can't be certain.
Jake Irvin, Nationals @MIL: 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Irvin was rolling before his past two starts, allowing just two runs in his prior three starts combined, and just 19 in his previous 14 starts. Now, his ERA has jumped nearly three-quarters of a run as he has given up 12 runs in his past two, with five walks and five strikeouts. I'm not much of a believer in Irvin's, but I do wonder if he might not benefit from throwing something like his changeup a bit more – he has largely shelved the cutter recently, so he's basically just throwing his two fastballs and his curveball. The changeup has looked good when he has thrown it, and it might make him a bit less predictable now that he is running into trouble.
Andrew Abbott, Reds vs. MIA: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I wrote last week about my lack of faith in Abbott's ability to keep generating good results, but I'll be honest, I didn't expect the Marlins of all teams to break the spell. Abbott has been relying on unrealistic results on balls in play, and that caught up to him, as the Marlins generated a .522 wOBA as a team in this one. Ironically, that was significantly worse than the .354 expected wOBA generated, which is to say: Abbot had some bad luck in this one. I still expect an ERA north of 4.00 the rest of the way, and I'm certainly not looking at this as a buy-low opportunity or anything.
Christian Scott, Mets vs. COL: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – At some point, he's gotta give us a reason to remain optimistic, and he just hasn't really done that since coming back from the minors. Scott has 10 strikeouts to four walks in 15.2 innings since coming back, with his whiff rate on his four-seamer, splitter, and slider all regressing from his stint in May. I still believe in the talent, and I suppose I'm fine holding Scott through the break to see if he can give us a reason to believe he can be more than just a streamer when we get back, but my faith is eroding with every start.
Matt Waldron, Padres vs. ATL: 7 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – On May 17, Waldron threw his knuckleball 40% of the time for the first time since his first start of the season, and he struck out 10 over 5.2 innings. He would fall below a 40% usage rate with the knuckler just twice in his next nine starts while sporting a 2.15 ERA. In seven starts where he has thrown that knuckleball at least 40% of the time, he has a 2.12 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 42.1 innings of work. In two starts since the start of July, he has thrown the knuckler just 34.9 and 31.3% of the time and he's given up seven runs in 13 innings. At the risk of oversimplifying, I think Matt Waldron should probably throw his changeup at least 40% of the time!
James Paxton, Dodgers @DET: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 1 K – I could at least see the case for holding on to Paxton early in the season when he won five of his first seven stats. But he's won just two of his past 10, and he is still generating mediocre (at best!) strikeout and walk rates. Paxton has a 6.00 ERA over his past 10 starts. Why is he 79% rostered still? Can someone tell me, please?
Hitters
Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners – And all of a sudden, Rodriguez is hitting .447/.500/.763 with three homers since the start of July. I did a whole deep dive on Rodriguez's miserable start to the season at the beginning of July, and there were legitimate red flags in his profile, as Rodriguez had just stopped generating power to the pull side of the field. But here's the thing: Even with that data, my faith in Rodriguez never really wavered. When a player is as talented as Rodriguez, you should expect them to get themselves out of even the deepest of slumps. Rodriguez is 13 for 22 over his past six games, so yeah, I think he's pulled out of it.
Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks – I am, admittedly, a lot less convinced that Carroll will turn things around than Rodriguez, though I will note that Carroll has three homers in just 54 plate appearances this month, after just two in 348 PA between April and June. That hasn't come along with a significant improvement in quality of contact, of course, so some skepticism is warranted – in fact, Carroll's xwOBA (.285) and average exit velocity (85.7) are both lower in July than any prior month. So, there might be a sell-high window opening up here, if anything. Given that Carroll's power outage extends to last year – he has just 12 homers over his past 162 games, while hitting .239 in that span – it makes more sense to be skeptical about him appearing to heat up than Rodriguez, though I can at least remain hopeful.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs – The thing about Crow-Armstrong is, if he could just manatee to be a decent hitter – not even a good one, but just a non-zero – he could pretty easily be a must-start Fantasy player and a potential star for the Cubs. That's how valuable his baserunning and defense are. And, to his credit, there are some positive signs lately, most notably with his two-homer game Sunday, but also with just four strikeouts in 30 July plate appearances. It's still way too early to say he's making any kind of leap – and Crow-Armstrong's quality of contact metrics remain quite bad overall – but it's a positive sign.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Diamondbacks – Maybe Suarez isn't quite washed up yet? He has four homers in his past eight games, with 14 RBI in that stretch, and he has by far his best quality of contact metrics of the season so far in July, with his average exit velocity jumping up to 90.4 mph. Skepticism is warranted and fair, but Suarez could be a useful source of power while he's hot.
Willie Calhoun, DH, Angels – Calhoun has been silently pretty solid for the Angels even before his two-homer performance Friday. He had a .790 OPS in June and is now up to .812 in July, though it's worth noting that he doesn't play every day, and that isn't likely to change any time soon. So this is more of a, "Hey, that's a fun thing that's happening!" reminder than anything else.
News and notes
Garrett Crochet was lifted after two perfect innings on Friday. Manager Pedro Grifol said Crochet would be on a pitch count ahead of the start, but we didn't think it would be 28 pitches. This is a frustrating situation, and I think we can expect a few more early exits for Crochet the rest of the way – though how a team might handle him after trading for him is the great unknown here. Crochet is pitching like an ace, but his future value is still very much up in the air right now.
Zack Wheeler played catch in the outfield Sunday and is expected to make his next start for the Phillies on July 22 or 23 against the Twins.
Mookie Betts has begun taking soft ground balls, according to Dave Roberts. Betts is working his way back from a broken left hand.
The Dodgers transferred Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the 60-day IL on Saturday, meaning he won't be eligible for activation until August 15. I would be a little bit surprised if it was that soon, even.
Kodai Senga made another rehab start at Triple-A Sunday: 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 10 whiffs on 66 pitches. His fastball velocity was down 1 MPH compared to last year as he continues to work his way back from a troublesome shoulder injury. There's plenty of upside here, but I'd be lying if I said I was confident in what Senga is going to give us if and when he comes back.
Devin Williams looked amazing in his first rehab outing at High-A on Sunday, struck out all three batters he faced. He's 68% rostered and should be back from the IL soon, and I do expect him to be the Brewers closer before long.
Ranger Suarez won't be available for the All-Star Game while he recovers from back tightness, but the Phillies expect him to be available to make his first start of the second half either July 22 or 23 – whichever day Wheeler doesn't start, presumably.
Bo Bichette has missed three straight due to a strained right calf.
Carlos Correa was scratched Saturday due to a bruised right heel and was out of the lineup Sunday as well. This is scary, given how much a plantar fasciitis injury limited Correa last season, though I will note this on the other foot, so maybe it won't be as big of a deal. Correa has been one of the biggest bounceback stars in the league so far, so it would be a shame if this knocked him off track.
Giancarlo Stanton won't be reinstated from the IL for the start of the second half on Friday, but he could be activated shortly after.
Clayton Kershaw tossed three hitless innings at Triple-A on Saturday, striking out five. He's aiming for 4-5 innings in his next rehab start Friday, and could be back shortly after.
Justin Verlander threw 25 pitches in a bullpen session Sunday, his first mound work since going on the IL with a neck injury. I would guess he's still several weeks away from returning to the Astros rotation.
David Bednar was activated from the IL Friday and immediately recorded a save. I dropped Aroldis Chapman where I had him – he just hasn't been good enough this season to hang on to when Bednar is healthy, even if there's some risk of re-injury for Bednar.
Jazz Chisholm started at second base Sunday, his first start in the infield since 2022. It sounds like teams interested in trading for Chisholm want to see if he can still play the infield.
TJ Friedl will head to the club's training facility in Arizona this week to increase his baseball activities, and is trending toward a July 26 return. He is 59% rostered and makes for a nice stash in category-based leagues.
Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said Josh Jung is aiming to start a rehab assignment following the All-Star break. Jung has suffered a setback on his surgically repaired right wrist, but it sounds like he could be back by August if all goes well. I'm still stashing him.
Max Muncy is still not swinging a bat and is unlikely to return until at least August. He's been out since May 17 with a right oblique strain that he's had a few setbacks with.
Xander Bogaerts made his return Friday.
Nolan Jones was placed on the IL with a lower back strain. I do think at this point you can just drop him in what is looking like a lost season.
Jose Miranda was placed on the IL due to lower back stiffness. Try to hang on to him if you can, given how hot he was before the injury.
Heston Kjerstad was hit in the head with a pitch Friday and then was placed on the 7-day concussion IL on Saturday. Scary stuff.
The Dodgers are expected to promote pitching prospect River Ryan after the All-Star break. It's not clear what Ryan's role is going to be, but he is one of the team's top prospects and could be an impact arm if they give him a chance in the rotation.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand underwent surgery to repair ligaments in his fractured right wrist on Thursday.
The Phillies released Whit Merrifield on Friday.
The Orioles optioned Cade Povich to Triple-A after walking five on Friday.
It sounds like Coby Mayo could be up any day now. Orioles GM Mike Elias said Mayo is "very close" and will "help us this year". He's a viable stash as a potentially impactful power bat whenever he does get the call.
The Nationals traded Hunter Harvey to the Royals in exchange for minor-leaguer Cayden Wallace and the 39th overall pick in the draft. I'm assuming James McArthur will remain the closer, but Harvey is a decent alternative if they do need to make a change, and they did give up an awful lot for him. It's a situation to watch, for sure.