The Dodgers are World Series champions and the 2024-25 offseason is underway. We're still waiting for the first significant free-agent signing (sorry Michael Wacha), which isn't unusual a week into the offseason. There has been one notable trade through, with the Angels bringing in Jorge Soler for some reason. Give it another week or so and the action will pick up.
Before the hot stove really fires up, here are 10 bold predictions for the 2024-25 offseason. Last offseason's bold predictions were pretty darn good. Feel free to mock this year's, but all geniuses were called crazy at first.
1. Juan Soto will set two contract records
With truly elite tippy-top-of-the-market free agents, my rule of thumb is whatever you expect them to get, it'll be more. These guys have a way of blowing contract projections out of the water because contract projections are rational, and free agency is irrational. Alex Rodriguez back in the day, Gerrit Cole five years ago, Aaron Judge two years ago, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last year, etc. They all got more than expected, and there's no reason to think things will be different for Juan Soto this offseason.
Soto is only 26 and he's a young 26. He turned 26 the same day as Game 1 of the World Series. Whichever team signs him will get peak years in bulk, and quite possibly the best years of his career. That's rather incredible given how good Soto has been to date. He is a franchise player in every way. Ultra-productive, unafraid of the bright lights and big markets, and his value to the franchise transcends what he does on the field because he sells tickets, ups ratings, and generates page views.
Our first bold prediction calls for Soto to set two contract records this offseason. We'll say he gets the largest total guarantee ever, eclipsing Ohtani's $700 million, and also the largest average annual value ever once adjusted for deferrals, beating out Ohtani's $46.1 million. Here are the largest contracts in baseball history:
| Largest total guarantee | Largest average annual value |
|---|---|
1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: $700 million | 1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: $46.1 million |
2. Mike Trout, Angels: $426.5 million | 2. Max Scherzer, Mets: $43.3 million |
3. Mookie Betts, Dodgers: $365 million | 3. Justin Verlander, Mets: $43.3 million |
4. Aaron Judge, Yankees: $360 million | 4. Zack Wheeler, Phillies: $42 million |
5. Manny Machado, Padres: $350 million | 5. Aaron Judge, Yankees: $40 million |
We are crossing the streams here. Ohtani's $700 million guarantee is before deferrals and his $46.1 million average annual value is present day after deferrals. I blame the Dodgers. Point is, we're boldly predicting Soto will top $700 million in total dollars and also come in over $46.1 million per year, once adjusted for deferrals. He'll get the richest contract ever, basically.
My hunch is Soto returns to the Yankees, though I'm about 55/45 on that rather than the 95/5 it would be if George Steinbrenner was running the team and not his son Hal. Let's call the contract 15 years and $720 million, or $48 million per year. Crazy? Eh, not really. Wait until you get a load of what the Steinbrenner family is worth. Soto will make history times two this offseason.
2. The Mets and White Sox will make a blockbuster
Good chance the Mets are the most active team in baseball this offseason. A great chance, really. They had more than $180 million come off the books after the season and, after a spirited run to the NLCS, the Mets are poised to add and cement themselves as a National League powerhouse. They're going to make a run at Soto. That much is obvious. And, even if they get him, expect the Mets to make several other high-profile moves to improve the roster.
For this next bold prediction, we'll say the Mets hook up for a blockbuster trade with the White Sox, one that sends Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. to Flushing. The Mets need rotation help with Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and Luis Severino all becoming free agents, and they don't have a center fielder (Tyrone Taylor's a nice player, but come on). Crochet and Robert to the Mets for a package that includes Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña, and at least two others. It has been foretold.
3. The Orioles open their wallet to keep Corbin Burnes
If the Orioles want to be considered an elite team, then it's time to spend like an elite team. Craig Kimbrel was their only major-league free-agent signing last offseason and that was a disaster. The O's won 101 games in 2023, opened 2024 with the fifth-lowest payroll in baseball, then won 91 games and got swept in the Wild Card Series. Can't help but feel like a little more offseason activity puts them in a better position in 2024. You can't get these years back. You can't kick the can down the road forever.
Fortunately, a group led by Baltimore billionaire David Rubenstein officially purchased the O's from the Angelos family in March, and all signs point to a payroll increase. How much? It's unclear, but I would be stunned if the Orioles are bottom five in payroll again in 2025. As such, we're boldly predicting Rubenstein opens his wallet to keep ace Corbin Burnes in Baltimore. Aces are getting $40-plus million a year these days. We'll say Burnes gets eight years and $320 million ($40 million AAV), which takes him through age 37, the same age Gerrit Cole's nine-year contract takes him through with the Yankees.
4. Alex Bregman joins A.J. Hinch in Detroit
Do the Tigers need a third baseman? No, not really. Top prospect Jace Jung debuted late in 2024 and figures to assume a larger role in 2025. Opinions are split on Jung, however, and after advancing to the ALDS, the Tigers may want more of a sure thing as they transition out of rebuilding and into perennial contention. Longtime Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is a battle-tested veteran who knows Tigers manager A.J. Hinch from their days in Houston, and he would give Detroit a needed right-handed middle of the order presence, not to mention a defensive upgrade. I thought Carlos Correa would wind up with Hinch and the Tigers a few years ago for those same reasons. They went with Javier Báez instead and that has been a disaster. I think they reel in Bregman this time around.
5. Pete Alonso settles for a one-year contract
Last offseason, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell were all Scott Boras clients who had to settle for one-year contracts with player options. All except Chapman were coming off career years too. They are all good players, no doubt, though they were a notch below the game's elite. Pete Alonso is in that same camp this offseason: A Boras client who is a very good player, clearly, but also one with flaws (declining average and on-base ability, less than stellar glove, etc.). These days, teams just don't pay big for free-agent first basemen. This bold prediction says Alonso falls in the Bellinger/Chapman/Montgomery/Snell bucket and has to settle for a one-year contract with a big salary ($35 million) and two player options. Let's pencil him for the Astros. Sound good?
6. The Mariners finally get Josh Naylor
This has been in the works for a while now. The Mariners were said to have interest in Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor last offseason and again at the trade deadline, and I bet their interest goes back even further than that. Seattle badly needs offense and first base is an obvious spot to upgrade. Naylor is now only a year away from free agency, he's looking at $12 million or so through arbitration, and Cleveland has its first baseman of the future in Kyle Manzardo. It is highly likely he will be traded this offseason and the Mariners are a natural fit. This bold prediction doesn't feel bold at all. How about we spice it up and say Seattle overpays ("overpays") and sends top shortstop prospect Felnin Celesten to the Guardians in the trade?
7. Williams to Philadelphia, Helsley to Atlanta
Two NL Central teams have high-priced closers a year away from free agency. The Brewers figure to trade Devin Williams because he's expensive (for them), and because a year out from free agency is when they tend to trade their best players, like Corbin Burnes last offseason. The Cardinals are in something of a tactical retreat. They're calling it a reset rather than a rebuild, and the last thing a rebuilding resetting team needs is a pricey closer inching toward free agency. That makes Ryan Helsley a prime trade candidate.
Our next bold prediction has Williams and Helsley being traded to NL East rivals. Williams lands with the Phillies, Helsley with the Braves. Philadelphia has a clear need for late-inning relief help with Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman becoming free agents, so Williams is a natural fit. The Braves don't need a closer -- Raisel Iglesias is excellent -- but there is no such thing as too many good relievers. Helsley would be a dynamite setup man. My guess is we hear the Braves and Phillies (and others) connected to Helsley and Williams throughout the offseason, and they each wind up with one.
8. Anthony Santander's contract is hailed as a bargain
There seems to be a free agent who is a fit for every team each offseason and this winter's "he's a fit for every team" free agent is Anthony Santander, who slugged 44 home runs with the Orioles. A switch-hitting outfielder with that kind of power? What's not to like? This bold prediction says that, while Santander will get paid handsomely, the overwhelming reaction will be that he got less than expected, and whichever team signs him got a bargain. As good as Santander is -- and he is very good -- he's now in his 30s, he had a .308 on-base percentage in 2024 and has a .311 on-base percentage in his last 2,400 plate appearances, and he's a liability in the outfield. He's not too dissimilar from Jorge Soler, who signed a three-year deal worth $42 million last offseason. I think Santander gets a touch more (three years and $45 million?) and it's considered shockingly low when, in reality, it's just right.
9. The Cubs will disappoint their fans
I don't mean to pick on Cubs fans. They're great. This is more about calling out ownership and the front office, who don't seem to have the stomach to make a big splash and are instead trying to fashion a contender out of mid-range free agents and incremental upgrades. This bold prediction says that we'll hear the Cubs connected to every significant free agent (Corbin Burnes and Juan Soto, most notably) and they will sign precisely zero of them. That doesn't mean they won't get better! Only that they won't be as good as they could be after posting identical 83-79 records in 2023 and 2024. The NL Central is not exactly a powerhouse division. A little more investment from ownership and risk-taking by the front office could put the Cubs on top. We predict it won't happen.
10. No team follows the Royals' lead
The Royals went from 106 losses in 2023 to the ALDS in 2024 thanks to steps forward from young players like Cole Ragans and Bobby Witt Jr., and also because they spent money last offseason. They didn't hit on all their free agent signings, but they hit big on Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, and those two were instrumental in getting Kansas City back to the postseason. It's a blueprint teams coming off poor 2024 seasons can follow. The Nationals and Pirates stand out as clubs with a good young talent base and an opportunity to get to the postseason with some smart spending. Instead, our final bold prediction says no team following Kansas City's blueprint. The Royals are the exception, not the rule. Some teams seem content to let rebuilds continue forever.
