Last week, we were correct in predicting that the Minnesota Vikings would invade London and that Jayden Daniels would yet again take care of business for the soaring Washington Commanders. We also had the Denver Broncos covering against the Las Vegas Raiders, but were were on the wrong side of the New York Giants' upset of the Seattle Seahawks and the Miami Dolphins sending Jacoby Brissett to the bench.
This week, Lamar Jackson has to face off against a player who's reminding people of himself, the Detroit Lions search for some 2023 revenge against the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills after firing Robert Saleh. Could that be something that sparks Aaron Rodgers and Co.?
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All NFL odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus.
Top five picks ATS record: 9-15-1
Overall ATS record: 30-45-3
Straight up record: 42-36
Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Drake Maye will get the start for the lowly Patriots, but did you know rookie quarterbacks have covered AND WON seven straight starts? Also, 7+ point underdogs are an incredible 7-2 straight-up this season, which is easily the best record by 7+ point underdogs in a five-week span since 1970. For reference, 7+ point underdogs went 15-50 in 2023.
The Patriots don't have an offensive line or weapons who are raking in Pro Bowl votes, but the Texans just lost Nico Collins for at least four games, while Joe Mixon and three starting offensive linemen missed practice Wednesday. New England keeps it close.
The pick: Patriots +7
Projected score: Texans 20-14
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
The Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL, but the Packers may be underrated at this point as well. They lost to Sam Darnold and the Vikings at home in Jordan Love's return, then scraped by the Los Angeles Rams last week. As Love gets more healthy, could Green Bay be set to take off?
The Cardinals are undefeated vs. NFC West opponents this year but winless against everyone else. Jonathan Gannon will have to contain the most explosive offense in the league, as the Packers' 27 plays of at least 20 yards this season lead the NFL. I think a reason for this is because Green Bay doesn't really have a WR1. Four different receivers have led the team in receiving yards in five games this year, and Romeo Doubs is expected to be back in the fold after his ... situation last week.
The pick: Packers -5.5
Projected score: Packers 24-17
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Colts have what is by far the worst defense in the NFL statistically (419.2 total yards allowed per game), and injuries have really taken their toll. Kenny Moore and Kwity Paye missed last week vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars, as did quarterback Anthony Richardson and running back Jonathan Taylor. Plus, starting right guard Will Fries suffered a season-ending leg injury. Now, wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is expected to miss multiple weeks due to a back injury, and Josh Downs missed practice Wednesday with a toe injury.
As a Titans bettor, I would rather have Richardson start this game than Joe Flacco, who has been on absolute fire. The former No. 4 overall pick has started just two road games in his NFL career and may not have his star running back with him when he faces off against what is statistically the No. 1 defense in the NFL. Oh yeah, Taylor's replacement, Trey Sermon, also missed practice Wednesday with a collarbone injury.
If Will Levis starts with his shoulder injury, he knows he has to play better and take care of the football. That should be easy against this defense. Expect Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears to run the ball 100 times. Tennessee is 8-0-1 ATS over the last nine seasons following the bye week. So yeah, give me the Titans.
The pick: Titans -2.5
Projected score: Titans 20-14
Detroit Lions (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
I view the Lions as one of the best teams in the NFL, but I can't say the same about the Cowboys. Dallas may be 3-0 on the road this season, but it is 0-2 at home in 2024. To make matters worse for "America's Team," the Lions are coming off of their bye week. Detroit is 10-2 against the spread over the last 12 games following a bye week.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the best running back tandem in the league, and Jared Goff didn't miss a single pass last time out. The Lions boast the No. 3 offense in the league, averaging 397 total yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys will have to account for someone who is quickly becoming one of the best players in the world. Aidan Hutchinson leads the league in sacks (6.5), QB hits (14) and pressures (40) this season. Remember, the Lions didn't even play last week!
The pick: Lions -3
Projected score: Lions 35-27
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN and fubo, try for free)
The Jets are going to play better football at some point this season, and it's not because they fired Saleh. This week's events can either spark the Jets or sink them. I'm betting on the former.
We know the Jets are capable of more than what they've shown through five weeks, and now they get the rival Bills coming off two straight losses. Josh Allen completed 9 of 30 passes in the loss to the Texans last week -- the lowest completion percentage (30%) by any quarterback in a game with 30 attempts in 32 years. He was 0 for 13 on throws of 15-plus air yards. It was the worst 0-fer on such throws by any quarterback in a game since air yards were first tracked in 2006. I don't think Allen is a bad quarterback, but I'm questioning everything about the Bills offense that is not James Cook.
Give me the Jets as an underdog, because Rodgers simply doesn't lose games as a home underdog. He's 6-1-1 as a home dog in his career, throwing 14 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions.
The pick: Jets +2.5
Projected score: Jets 21-17
