The outfield position in Fantasy Baseball suddenly looks pretty shallow. I mean, sure, seven of the likely first-round picks in most drafts are at the position (Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna, Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez), with Mike Trout typically going off the board in the second round, so there's certainly some impact bats here.
But then it drops off pretty hard. MIchael Harris (32.2 in FantasyPros ADP) is the next outfielder off the board, coming off a very good season where he finished as the No. 12 player at the position – in just 114 games. His price assumes he'll sustain most of what he did last season over a full season, but he's also a good example of how the position just isn't as deep as it once was – again, he finished 12th in just 114 games. Outfield used to be too deep to allow for an outcome like that.
Now? Well, Harris is pretty much a consensus top-12 pick (though he's a bust pick for me), as are Kyle Schwarber (44.8) and Cedric Mullins (48.4), despite the fact that they might be batting average liabilities. And then you've got Luis Robert (48.4), Adolis Garcia (60.4), and George Springer (61.0),two of whom are perceived as pretty significant injury risks. And that's your top 15 at outfield!
The problem here isn't so much a lack of talent – any of the aforementioned players could be a second-round contributor without too much going right in their favor. The problem more so is that a lot of these guys really need one specific thing to go right: They need to stay healthy.
If Robert, and Springer stay healthy … if Starling Marte (72.4) and Byron Buxton (87.2) stay healthy … If Tyler O'Neill (102.4), Christian Yelich (113.6), Giancarlo Stanton (116.0), Kris Bryant (120.4) stay healthy … if Seiya Suzuki (137.2) and Bryce Harper (147.6) get and then stay healthy … and well, you get the picture.
There's upside here, and not just in the first round. There just aren't a lot of guys you can trust. You won't be able to avoid risk at outfield, but if you hit on the right guys, you could be well ahead of the competition.
Judge had a 2022 for the history books, setting the AL record for homers in a season. The question isn't whether he'll regress, but how much. But keep this in mind: Lose 20% of his homers, RBI, and runs, and he still would have ranked first, seventh, and fifth in the league, respectively. There's a lot of room for Judge to regress and still be one of the league's best hitters, and he's a viable candidate for the No. 1 pick in any format (but especially those that value OBP).
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Acuna is my No. 1 overall player, though there is definitely some room for disagreement coming off a season where he just didn't hit for the same power we're used to seeing coming off a torn ACL. However, the quality of contact metrics were still uniformly excellent, and Acuna remains one of maybe two or three players in the entire league whose upside includes 40 homers and/or 40 steals. Shoot for upside.
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Rodriguez's rookie season looked a lot like Acuna's – not quite as good (and a year older), but still the kind of performance that should make Rodriguez a star for years to come. He could stand to improve his plate discipline, but I'd bet on that coming before long, and Rodriguez's quality of contact metrics all suggest what he did wasn't a fluke. A step backward wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility, but I'm not expecting it.
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One thing that'll be interesting to see is whether Betts runs more now that stealing should be a bit easier thanks to rule changes. He hasn't contributed much in batting average over the past two seasons, but if he can get back to being a 20-steal guy, the profile is even more appealing as a mid-first rounder.
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Players who don't contribute at all in steals are tough to justify a first-round pick on, but Alvarez is one of the rare exceptions. He was the best hitter in baseball not named "Aaron Judge" last season, with underlying metrics that fully back it up. He's about as good a non-base stealer as you'll find.
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As a pure hitter, Tucker falls a bit short of the rest of the first rounders. He's not usually a strong contributor in batting average, he has good-but-not-great power, and typically bats low enough in the order to make counting stats a bit disappointing. If stolen bases become more plentiful, it's possible Tucker's advantage there disappears, making him a bit underwhelming at his current cost.
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2022 was a big disappointment for Soto, which says a lot about how good he is. He still had 27 homers and 93 runs and an .853 OPS despite never really hitting like himself. It's possible that his all-fields approach made him inordinately impacted by the deader baseball last season, but I tend to think this it was probably just bad luck. He's still just 24 years, still had exceptional quality of contact metrics, and hits in an elite offense. If he finishes as the No. 1 hitter in Fantasy this season, I wouldn't be surprised.
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When he's on the field, Trout is still arguably the best hitter in baseball. There were some signs of slippage with his plate discipline last season, but I don't really worry too much about that; he actually came back from his back injury last season to hit .308/.370/.686 over his final 40 games. The back injury is a significant concern, and at this point Trout is less likely than just about any early-rounder to play 150-plus games. But you know you're going to get elite production when he's out there.
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Harris was tremendous as a rookie, showcasing a speed/power oriented profile that more than made up for less-than-ideal plate discipline. That plate discipline does concern me, as does a groundball-heavy approach as a hitter, and it all adds up to a more volatile production profile than I typically prefer with my early-round picks. Of course, we're talking about a soon-to-be 22-year-old, so nothing is written in stone here, and a big step forward in skill set wouldn't shock me.
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I'll admit, I thought Arozarena was a significant bust risk last season, but he really proved me wrong. He still has pretty mediocre plate discipline and his quality of contact metrics won't wow you, but his athleticism and an all-fields approach as a hitter have allowed him to overperform expectations so far, and that should remain the case in 2022. There's still some volatility here, but I mostly buy the skill set.
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Injuries have been the biggest factor holding Robert back over the course of his career, but the biggest disappointment in 2022 was performance related. Even before wrist injuries crept up in August and September, Robert was having a disappointing season, hitting for a good average but without as much power as expected – when he sprained his wrist in mid-August, he was on a 24-homer pace. That injury dragged his numbers down, but with three partial seasons to his credit and only only with an OPS higher than .750, Robert isn't quite a sure thing yet, even without getting into the injury issues.
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As many expected, Mullins took a step back last season – the cavernous new dimensions in Camden Yards likely didn't help. Despite falling from 30 to 16 homers, Mullins remains a very good Fantasy option, albeit one with a less well-rounded skill set. Despite seeing his homers fall almost in half while his average dropped more than 30 points, Mullins was still a top-10 outfielder and a top-50 player overall. I'm expecting more of the same.
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Philly ended up being a perfect fit for Schwarber, who took advantage of a good home park and extra plate appearances from hitting near the top of the lineup for arguably the best season of his career. He probably won't hit 46 homers again, but he should remain a very good source of power, and I'd bet on that .218 batting average improving – the shift ban should help, but even without it, he's a .233 career hitter who had never had an average that low in a full season before.
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Jose Ramirez is the only player with more home runs and steals than Garcia over the past two seasons, and yet there are still plenty of folks who remain skeptical of him heading into this season. And, in fairness, Garcia is a late bloomer with pretty poor plate discipline, so there's plenty to be skeptical about. It's a high-variance profile, but he also crushes the ball and has a clear green light on the base paths, so I do wonder if some of the skepticism is unwarranted, or at least overstated.
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Marte hasn't played more than 120 games in a season since 2019, and he hasn't played more than 132 since the year before then, so you know you're probably going to get at least one IL stint from him. However, we've seen no decline in his production so far – in fact, the two best park-adjusted seasons of his career are the last two, a nifty trick for a now 34-year-old. You're going to have to deal with an absence, and there's risk of age-related decline, but he's been an elite Fantasy option basically every season. Why would this be different?
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Springer played through a bone spur in his right elbow that required surgery in the offseason, so maybe that explains why he had a relative down year – he was dealing with the injury since at least June and it required an IL stint at one point. Skeptics will note that Springer is nearly always hurt, but I'll also just note that Springer is always a very good hitter, too. He should be so yet again in 2023, and I like the chances of a bounceback, too.
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Jimenez looks like he might have taken the leap last season, hitting .295/.358/.500 with the underlying numbers to back it up. The problem is, he played just 84 games due to a hamstring injury, the second straight season he has missed significant time due to injuries. Hopefully the White Sox will confine him more or less full-time to the DH spot in an effort to keep him healthy, because Jimenez has the potential for a .300 average and 30-plus homers if he's right.
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I would mostly be willing to write off Hernandez's relative down season, seeing as he hit .285/.331/.536 from June 1 on, but it's worth noting that he does get a pretty sizable environmental downgrade, going from a pretty neutral Rogers Centre to one of the worst offensive parks in baseball in T-Mobile Park. I don't think it will tank his numbers, but it's an added risk factor for a player who isn't necessarily a sure thing.
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Carroll is arguably the top prospect in baseball, and he's already proven he can hang at the major-league level. His underlying numbers in 32 games don't necessarily back up his very strong .830 OPS, but it's worth remembering he was a 21-year-old in his first taste of the majors. Carroll is an elite athlete – he had the highest sprint speed in the majors last season – and has produced at every level so far without exception. Why would the majors be any different? He's not a guaranteed star, but this might be the last time Carroll is drafted outside of the first two rounds for the next five years. –
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A trade was treated like a fait accompli, but so far, the Pirates have held onto Reynolds. A trade would probably be better for his Fantasy value for a lot of reasons, but Reynolds should be good no matter where he plays, and I could even see him taking a step forward as a base stealer thanks to the new rules – Reynolds' 75th percentile sprint speed shows he has more wheels than his career-high seven steals would make you think.
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Over his past 153 games, Buxton has 47 homers, 15 steals, 111 runs, and 83 RBI. If he ever actually manages to play 153 games in a season, Buxton is going to carry teams to Fantasy championships. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be a more snake-bitten player in baseball - Buxton added a broken hand (from a HBP), a hip strain, and knee soreness to the list of maladies that have cost him time in 2022.
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I still hold out hope for one more elite season from Yelich, but I'm certainly not projecting it. He stayed healthy last season and was still a factor on the basepaths, but his decline as a hitter continued. The problem is, while Yelich still hits the ball plenty hard, he doesn't elevate it anymore; that was the key that unlocked his breakout, and if he can get back to doing that, I think he can get back to being a very good hitter. If he doesn't? He's still a must-start Fantasy outfielder, just probably not a difference maker anymore.
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The term "slap hitter" was invented for players like Kwan. He is about as punchless as a major-league hitter can be while still being a good hitter, thanks to an incredible sense of which pitches to swing at and arguably the best contact tool in the game. It's a profile that doesn't leave him much room to slip, but he should be a good source of average, steals, and runs, while being a zero in the other two categories. It's a very team-dependent skill set, but if you can fit it in, Kwan is a good player.
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I think it's very funny that Kwan and Stanton are back-to-back in our consensus rankings, because they couldn't be any more different as players. Stanton still hits the ball about as hard as anyone, and I still think there's at least one more massive, 40-homer, 100-plus RBI season left for him. Unfortunately, he's as injury-prone as any player in baseball, so there's always risk there; there's also risk that, entering his age-33 season, his skills could decline to the point where he just isn't worth the occasional homer. I don't think he's at that point yet, but the fear will scare many players away.
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Even on the rebuilding Diamondbacks, McCarthy's playing time is not guaranteed at this point. He figures to be in the Opening Day lineup, but he'll need to play like he did last season (2.3 WAR in 99 games, per FanGraphs) if he wants to keep his spot. If he does, though, there's a lot to like here with a 25-year-old coming off a season with 13 homers and 34 steals between the majors and minors. McCarthy's underlying numbers don't necessarily back up what he did last season, so he probably needs to take a step forward, but if he manages to hit .270, even, he'll probably be a very good Fantasy option thanks to his speed. 30-plus steals is not an unreasonable expectation.
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Castellanos was one of the biggest disappointments in baseball last season, and there isn't much you can lean on that would suggest a bounceback. He hit just .185 with no homers in 17 postseason games and didn't have a single month with an OPS within 80 points of his .939 mark from 2021; his Statcast numbers were basically the worst of his career across the board, too. Castellanos has been one of the league's best in that regard for a long time, but his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate were all below average in 2022. He's still only 31 on Opening Day, so I don't want to write him off, but betting on a bounce-back requires a leap of faith.
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Suzuki had a fine first season in the majors, and if all he does is repeat his 2022 pace across 150 games, he'd be a fine starting option – that 150-game pace would have seen him hit 19 homers, steal 12 bases, with 135 combined runs and RBI. But I think there's upside beyond that, especially in what should be a better Cubs lineup. Suzuki's Statcast page suggests there could be 25-plus homer upside here, and he's fast enough to be more of a base stealer; he also has better plate discipline than his 24.7% strikeout rate would make you think. Suzuki was solid in his first taste of the majors, but if he can take a step forward, he could be a top-15 outfielder.
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There's going to be at least one person in your league who is obsessed with Nootbaar, and he's another player who has a bit of a gap between what he's actually managed as a professional hitter and what the Statcast data suggests he might be capable of. He hits the ball really hard (90th percentile average exit velocity, 91.7 mph), strikes out less than the league average, and is a pretty good athlete, which is generally a pretty good combination. The expectation is he'll be an everyday player, and it's not unreasonable to project 25 homers and a handful of steals – and he might hit at the top of what could be a very good lineup, too. Nootbaar doesn't have the minor-league track record to back up what he did last season, let alone a step forward, but he might just be a late bloomer.
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Winker might go undrafted in some leagues, and how you feel about him probably depends on how much you blame his dreadful 2022 on injuries – he ended up needing neck and knee surgeries this offseason, but is expected to be ready for Opening Day at this point. Winker took a massive step backward in 2022, primarily as a power hitter, and the injuries probably played a role. However, so did his home park in Seattle, which has been the toughest park in baseball for left-handed hitters. Now, he's moving to Miller Park in Milwaukee, which is pretty middle-of-the-pack in terms of overall left-handed hitter park factors, but rates as the fifth-best for home runs. Winker has been a high-level performer as recently as 2021, and I want to make sure I leave my drafts with him in the later rounds.
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Greene suffered a foot injury during spring training last year, delaying his MLB debut, and he never really managed to live up to expectations. However, I'll point out that he did manage to be right around an average major-league hitter once you account for his tough home park, and that home park figures to be a bit more forgiving given the change in dimensions in Comerica Park. Even without that, though, Greene sported above-average exit velocities and hard-hit rates with better underlying plate discipline markers than his 28.7% strikeout rate would make you think. Greene may not end up being the star we thought he would at this time last year, but it's too early to write him off. I'm trying to grab him in as many leagues as I can.
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Bryant was a pretty big disappointment last season, but not because he didn't perform well. Bryant hit .306/.376/.475 in his 42 games last season, which is pretty much in line with what I expected from him when he signed with the Rockies. He dealt with a back injury that lingered through much of the first half of the season and then also dealt with a case of plantar fasciitis, two injuries that make it pretty hard to do much on a baseball field. Those are also the kind of injuries that could linger into this season and beyond, so I certainly get why his price has tumbled. However, I do think if Bryant is healthy, we're going to see a very good season from him – a good batting average seems like a safe bet, plus 25 homers and potentially 100 runs even in a pretty bad lineup. The only knock on Bryant, for me, is his health.
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I don't dislike Harris at all, I just don't love his price at this point. In all likelihood, he'll be a very good Fantasy option, and potentially continue to be the superstar he played like as a rookie. But there's some risk inherent in such an aggressive swing profile, especially when there is some swing-and-miss in there too. Harris overcame that with exceptional results on contact as a rookie, but even there, he probably played a bit over his head – his actual .368 wOBA far outstripped his expected wOBA of .335. Because of his athleticism, Harris could be one of those players who consistently outperforms his underlying numbers, but if he doesn't, he's due for a step back; if his aggressiveness at the plate leads to fewer pitches to hit, there's risk of an even bigger step back.
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1. Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2022: Rookie, Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: .307 BA (362 AB), 24 HR, 31 SB, 1.036 OPS, 67 BB, 107 K
Major-league stats: .260 BA (104 AB), 4 HR, 2 SB, .830 OPS, 8 BB, 31 K
Even after losing nearly two full years of competitive play, first to the pandemic and then to a shoulder injury, Carroll took a wrecking ball to the upper minors just like he did at every previous stop. The Diamondbacks' highest two levels are extremely hitter-friendly, furthering questions about his power potential at 5-feet-10, but he had 15 extra-base hits in 32 games after reaching the majors.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
2. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
Age (on opening day): 19
Where he played in 2022: Low-A, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .288 BA (400 AB), 20 HR, 16 SB, .879 OPS, 32 BB, 118 K
Teenage heartthrobs can sometimes peak too soon, and it's true Chourio ran into some contact issues once he reached Double-A. But ... he reached Double-A ... as an 18-year-old, terrorizing two levels of A-ball with electrifying bat speed and premium athleticism. The ceiling here is limitless.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: late-season look
3. Druw Jones, OF, Diamondbacks
Age (on opening day): 19
Where he played in 2022: did not play -- injured
The No. 2 pick in last year's draft is still completely untested as a professional, having had his debut derailed by a torn labrum in his shoulder. But his floor is higher than most 19-year-olds thanks to all the advantages that come with being the son of five-time All-Star Andruw Jones. He profiles similarly, offering an easy center field projection and plus power.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: don't count on it
4. James Wood, OF, Nationals
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2022: Rookie, Low-A
Minor-league stats: .313 BA (291 AB), 12 HR, 20 SB, .956 OPS, 50 BB, 75 K
The Aaron Judge comps are even more played out following his historic 62-homer season, but Wood is indeed another massive 6-foot-7 human capable of inflicting serious wounds on a baseball. Judge's high quality of contact helped him overcome exorbitant strikeout rates early in his career, but at least in the lower minors, Wood hasn't fallen victim to those yet, striking out at just a 21.6 percent rate last year.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: don't count on it
5. Zac Veen, OF, Rockies
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .245 BA (466 AB), 12 HR, 55 SB, .724 OPS, 64 BB, 132 K
While it's his stolen base totals that have turned heads in the minors, Veen's carrying tool was supposed to be power, and I remain hopeful he can deliver Kyle Tucker-level production as he begins to put muscle on his 6-foot-4 frame. Playing at Coors Field can only help. He has needed time to adjust at each stop and hit .177 in 34 games after moving up to Double-A, dragging down his overall numbers.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: late-season look
6. Elijah Green, OF, Nationals
Age (on opening day): 19
Where he played in 2022: Rookie
Minor-league stats: .302 BA (43 AB), 2 HR, 4 2B, 1 SB, .939 OPS, 6 BB, 21 K
Above all, Dynasty leaguers love athletes, the kind who earned 70 grades for both power and speed from Baseball America, and the fifth pick in last year's draft checks that box as the son of former Pro Bowl tight end Eric Green. The younger Green has a tendency to swing out of his shoes, so he'll need to prove he can make enough contact to make good on his potential.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: don't count on it
7. Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2022: Low-A, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .273 BA (451 AB), 16 HR, 37 SB, .837 OPS, 72 BB, 128 K
Yeah, it was a mistake to anoint this guy the second coming of Mike Trout back when he was 17 and first appearing on prospect lists, but to dismiss him now, when he's growing into power, making better swing decisions and running wild on the base paths, would compound that mistake. Making it to Double-A at 19, if only for five games, is no small feat.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: late-season look
8. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .278 BA (510 AB), 19 HR, 18 SB, .874 OPS, 94 BB, 174 K
You don't want to see a guy who stands out most for his hit tool strike out 28 percent of the time, as Cowser did across three levels last year, but seeing as he also reached base at a .406 clip, passivity was largely the culprit. He can fix that, and given that he hit .341 with a 1.037 OPS in the 49 games he spent at Double-A, I like the upside if he does.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
9. Oscar Colas, OF, White Sox
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .314 BA (481 AB), 23 HR, .895 OPS, 38 BB, 120 K
It turns out Colas, a Cuban defector last seen playing in Japan in 2019, was well worth the wait, showing little rust by batting over .300 at each of his three stops. He earns his highest marks for power, which also showed up with 16 home runs in his final 54 games, leaving little doubt he's ready for his next challenge.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
10. Evan Carter, OF, Rangers
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .295 BA (397 AB), 12 HR, 28 SB, .885 OPS, 64 BB, 81 K
From the patient approach that yielded a .397 on-base percentage to his knack for timing up offspeed stuff, Carter's maturity as a hitter really stands out, to the point of hampering his power production since he's so opposite field-minded. The Rangers helped Josh Jung overcome that issue, and the hope is they can do the same for Carter. It helps that he still has some bulking up to do, being a wiry 6-foot-4.
Scott's 2023 Fantasy impact: late-season look