Dave is on the move this week and spending time with the family so I'm here to take the lead on what I consider the bible for weekly Fantasy Football decisions. The good news for those already missing Dave's expertise is that you can find his plays for the Thanksgiving slate here. You'll also get a bonus play for the Titans-Bengals game below. Otherwise, I'll do my best to find you the right sleepers, busts, FLEX plays and more.
Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every Thanksgiving day game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Justin Jefferson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
This matchup features a gamescript that should work in the favor of both Wilson and Raheem Mostert with Miami entering the game as nearly two-touchdown favorites. Houston's decision to bench Davis Mills for Kyle Allen could lead to more turnovers and shorter fields for Wilson and the Dolphins offense. Combine that with arguably the best matchup for running backs on the slate and Wilson has top-12 RB1 appeal for Week 12. Dave would start Wilson over David Montgomery, Travis Etienne and James Conner in PPR leagues.
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More notes:
- LAST GAME: Wilson totaled a 61% snap share on route to 52% of the team's attempts. and led the way in attempts (52%) and route participation (53%).
- MORE USAGE: Wilson racked up 17 rushing attempts and five targets while operating as the team's short-yardage back.
- TEXANS: Houston has allowed at least 90 yards or more to a running back in each of its past eight games. They have also allowed eight rushing touchdowns to running backs in their last five games. They have allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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From Dave: Think back to the prior three seasons -- when the Titans wanted to become multi-dimensional on offense, they did it with A.J. Brown. I'm not saying Burks is a carbon copy of Brown but he's probably the most diverse receiver they've got. In a matchup where the Titans should have to throw the ball a decent amount, Burks should be counted on for more red-zone routes and at least as many deep targets as he had in Week 11. Give Burks a shot over Darnell Mooney, Curtis Samuel, Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: Saw a target share north of 17% for only the second time this season, wielding eight targets into a 7-111-0 stat line (his first outing with more than 55 yards). It's worth noting that 94 yards came on his first and last receptions, both deep targets, which means 17 yards were earned over his other five grabs.
- LAST WEEK: Burks was also noticeably absent on a lot of the Titans' red-zone snaps. Of Ryan Tannehill's 10 dropbacks inside the 20, Burks played four snaps. He did get a target and may have scored on the play had Tannehill thrown sooner. Burks also drew a double-team in the end-zone in the second half.
- FILM: While he didn't quickly accelerate into top gear, Burks did show he can outrun the competition on those two aforementioned targets. Whether or not the Titans keep giving him those deep opportunities from game to game remains to be seen, but the short-area targets he saw were very similar to what he did at Arkansas, and that figures to be a staple in the Titans offense. It should set Burks up for an eight-point PPR floor moving forward.
- BENGALS: Are among the league leaders in catch rate allowed to wideouts (59% on the season) and they don't miss many tackles (five in 2022). However, they're slipping in terms of yards per catch (14.02 this season and 17.32 in their past three) and touchdowns (half of the six touchdowns have come in their past three) to WRs. It stems from Cincinnati becoming worse at defending throws of 16-plus Air Yards, especially in its past three games (bottom-five in catch rate, completions of 20-plus yards and overall receiving yards allowed).
- TITANS: Nearly 25% of their pass attempts of 16-plus yards this season (10 of 42) have come over their past two games and they've averaged a league-best 40.8 yards per catch on them. They're trying to get better at those throws, and Burks was the primary benefactor last week.
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Tennessee's pass defense has been better over the last five weeks after allowing 300 passing yards in each of their four games prior to the bye, but they've also benefited from facing mediocre offenses like Indianapolis, Houston and Denver during that stretch. There's a chance Ja'Marr Chase doesn't play a full snap load in his first game back from a multiweek injury, and also a chance he gets used as a decoy at times as he gets back into rhythm. Dave is starting Boyd over Darnell Mooney, Diontae Johnson and Drake London in PPR.
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More Notes:
- BOYD: 66% snap rate or better in every game, even when Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were both healthy.
- TITANS: Third-most Fantasy points per game allowed to WRs in non-PPR.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Fantasy managers may be scrambling for options at QB this week due to a number of QB injuries and benchings, but you can likely do better than Lawrence. His lack of TDs over the Jaguars' last six games limits his ceiling, especially against a Ravens defense rounding into form. Dave is playing Ryan Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins over the Jaguars QB this week.
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More notes:
- RAVENS: Only two QBs (Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen) have 20+ points vs BAL this yr, and none in last six; only one QB since Week 2 has thrown two TDs vs. BAL.
- LAWRENCE: Just one game in last six with two pass TDs, 5:4 TD:INT ratio during that stretch after 8:2 TD:INT ratio in first four games.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Jets' QB change should be great news for Michael Carter and James Robinson, as Mike White tunneled on running back targets during his time on the field last season, including peppering Carter and Ty Johnson with 16 targets in his relief debut, then feeding the pair 20 targets in his 405-yard starting debut. Dave is starting Carter in PPR over D'Andre Swift, Latavius Murray and Cordarelle Patterson.
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More Notes:
- CARTER: Team-best 21% target share in Mike White's three games with at least 32 pass attempts last year, per Frank Stampfl
- BEARS: 4.7 ypc to RB this yr, rush TD allowed to RB in all but three games.
- CARTER: 16 of 34 targets on the season came in first three weeks without Zach Wilson.
Sneaky Sleeper in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Mike White will draw the start over Zach Wilson and that changes the outlook for every Jets receiver. As the team's primary slot receiver in games that White started during the 2021 season, Jamison Crowder drew a 13.7% target share and racked up 143 yards on 14 receptions. With Moore expected to take over that role in Week 12 with White (based on his Week 11 usage) there's an opportunity for him to be a sneaky FLEX option sleeper in PPR leagues. We're going off book with this one, and while Moore didn't crack Dave's Week 12 WR plays, I would start him over D.J. Moore, Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson.
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More notes:
- USAGE: Moore played 69% of the slot snaps for the Jets in Week 11.
- HISTORY: White's top target at Western Kentucky in 2017 was Nacarius Fant -- his slot receiver.
- MORE HISTORY: While playing mostly on the outside, Moore racked up a Elijah 12.2% target share with nine receptions, 116 yards and a touchdown playing with White in 2021.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Samuel will be an intriguing option for his Fantasy managers considering the elite matchup against the Falcons, but beware the red flags. He had just three touches last week but was saved by a rushing TD, and the Commanders gave Jahan Dotson more snaps than Samuel last week with the first-round pick getting healthier following a long-term injury. Dave is sitting Samuel in PPR for Treylon Burks, Parris Campbell and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
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More notes:
- SAMUEL: Set season low in snap rate each of last two weeks with Jahan Dotson back, including trailing Dotson in snap rate last week, and only had three targets in those two games.
- FALCONS: Second-most Fantasy points per game (non-PPR) allowed to WRs, meaning WAS can lean more on traditional passing game over generating touches for Samuel.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The impulse is going to be to start Murray after the Broncos waived Melvin Gordon and placed Chase Edmonds on the IR, but volume isn't the issue with Murray, who hasn't topped 50 rushing yards in four straight games despite seeing 17 carries last week and 14 carries in Week 8. He'll need an end-zone plunge to pay off for Fantasy managers, and trips to the red zone aren't guaranteed on this awful offense. Dave is starting Samaje Perine, Rachaad White and Michael Carter over Murray in PPR.
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More notes:
- PANTHERS: Annihilated by Mixon in Week 9, better vs ATL (22 carries by RBs for 95 yards) & BAL (18 for 80) in Weeks 10-11.
- MURRAY: Held under 3 yards per cary in each of last two games, just 3.3 yards per carry with DEN.
- BRONCOS: Just 90.4 rush yards per game at home vs. 114.8 on road.
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Moore became an immediate start consideration once Sam Darnold was named the quarterback for this game, but he'll have to overcome an elite Denver pass defense, though they haven't been as sharp the last two weeks. With this game unlikely to turn into a shootout, the downside in playing Moore is far greater than the potential return. Dave is starting Allen Robinson, Zay Jones and Demarcus Robinson over the Panthers' No. 1 receiver.
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More notes:
- MOORE: 17-game pace of 100 receptions, 1,279 yards, six TDs on 166 targets in Sam Darnold's first nine starts last year, per Heath Cummings.
- BRONCOS: Second-fewest Fantasy points allowed per game to WRs in non-PPR, less than 180 pass yards surrendered in 6 of 10 games.
- LAST TWO WEEKS: DEN allowed four TDs to WRs after surrendering just one in the first eight weeks.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Bucs are trending upward coming out of their bye as healthy as they've been all year, and that may mean less volume than we've grown accustomed to from Brady in the passing game. He had just 29 pass attempts against the Seahawks, just half of the 58 he threw in his previous game, after topping 40 in seven straight. He's been held to zero or one passing TD in all but two games this year, while the Browns have held all but three QBs under 20 Fantasy points. Dave is starting Geno Smith and Dak Prescott over Brady, but potential weather conditions could push the Bucs QB down even further.
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More Notes:
- BRADY: Just two games with multiple passing TDs all year despite averaging a career-high 42.7 pass attempts per game.
- BROWNS: Held 7 of 10 QBs faced (including Josh Allen in Week 11) to less than 20 Fantasy points.
- WEATHER: Winds could top 20 mph and rain possible, which could limit passing effectiveness.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him in Non-PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Despite his team falling behind by multiple scores early in the second half of Arizona's Week 11 loss, Conner maintained a massive snap rate. This has been the story for him since returning from injury. Conner and the entire Cardinals offense will get a boost from the anticipated return of Kyler Murray to the starting lineup and this is a get-right matchup for him. Although he's not heavily involved in the pass game, he should be in your Non-PPR league lineups. Dave would start Conner over Dameon Pierce, Najee Harris, and Jamaal Williams.
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More notes:
- CHARGERS: Los Angeles presents an excellent matchup for Conner having allowed the third-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs and at least 10 points in non-PPR scoring in eight of their last nine games
- USAGE: Despite the hyper-negative game script in Week 11, Conner finished with a 78% snap rate -- good for the fourth-highest among all running backs.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Palmer's time in the Fantasy spotlight appeared to be coming to a close last week with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back in the lineup, but the latter quickly reinjured his high ankle sprain and may be a longshot to play this week. That opens the door for another high-volume day for Palmer against a defense that is giving up a lot of points and yardage to recent opponents. Dave is starting Palmer over Courtland Sutton and Michael Pittman in PPR leagues.
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More Notes:
- PALMER: 10 targets per game the last four weeks, including last week with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back.
- CARDINALS: 30+ points allowed in 4 of last 5, with nine pass TDs surrendered during that stretch.
- MIKE WILLIAMS: Just six snaps last week before reinjuring ankle, putting status for this game in doubt.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Smith has thrown multiple TDs in eight of his 10 games this year, including in tough matchups against the Broncos and Buccaneers. The Raiders defense has taken advantage of some good matchups in recent weeks but still is one of the best matchups for opposing Fantasy QBs. Even in a week with no byes, Dave has Smith as a locked-in starter ahead of Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert.
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More Notes:
- RAIDERS: 20+ points allowed in eight of 10 games this year, with Trevor Lawrence and Russell Wilson being the exceptions.
- SMITH: 76.9% completion rate (best in NFL), 8.1 yards per attempt (fifth in NFL) when not pressured; LV has worst sack rate per pass attempt in NFL.
- RAIDERS: Allowed rush TDs to Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan; only two teams (Bears, Lions) with more rush TDs allowed to QBs.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
With the best yards after-the-catch weapons in the NFL by a wide margin, Garoppolo has worked himself into the QB1 mix, but he's not matchup-proof. In Week 12, the Saints present a middling matchup for the 49ers pass game and the likelihood of a gamescript that works against him with the 49ers entering this game as heavy favorites. If the 49ers jump out to an early lead, it could be the Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell show. Dave would start Geno Smith and Lamar Jackson over Garoppolo.
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More Notes:
- SAINTS: New Orleans has allowed 19 or fewer Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in all but three games this season.
- ODDS: The 49ers are 9.5-point favorites, which should lead to a run-heavy game script.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Williams should continue to see his role expand in the offense after getting 55% of the snaps last week with Darrell Henderson, who has since been waived, barely seeing action. His biggest impact will likely come in PPR leagues, as the Chiefs give up a lot of receptions to backs and the Rams will likely be forced to play from behind, leaving easy dump-offs to Williams on the table for much of the second half. Dave ranks Williams ahead of Damien Harris, James Robinson and A.J. Dillon in PPR leagues
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More Notes:
- WILLIAMS: Played season-high 55% of snaps last week, with Cam Akers at 39% of snaps, and averaged 5.5 yards per touch on seven carries and one reception.
- DARRELL HENDERSON: Waived this week after playing at least 50% of snaps in seven of Rams' first nine games.
- CHIEFS: Have allowed second most receptions to RBs in NFL, averaging 7.1 receptions surrendered per game.
- AKERS: Targeted only six times all year, with three coming in Week 2 against Atlanta.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him in Non-PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
What would happen with the Eagles pass game after losing Dallas Goedert was on the top of my mind heading into their Week 11 and we got the answer immediately -- a concentrated target share with Smith and A.J. Brown. That target share could easily grow to over 60% of the targets in Week 12 and Smith's share will grow with it. Smith checks in as a WR2 for Dave even in Non-PPR where he would start him over Chris Olave, Josh Palmer and George Pickens.
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More Notes:
- TARGETS: Smith commanded a 39% target share in his first game without Goedert in the lineup.
- MORE VOLUME: Smith has racked up at least eight targets in three of his last four games.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Steelers' trade of Chase Claypool has done nothing to improve Johnson's targets, with the former PPR mainstay catching just four passes on five targets in each of the last two weeks. George Pickens should continue to grow into the No. 1 threat for Kenny Pickett, but there may not be any production at all for Pittsburgh receivers in this tough matchup. Dave is sitting Johnson in favor of Tyler Boyd, Parris Campbell and Treylon Burks in PPR.
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More Notes:
- COLTS: Allowing fewest points per game to WRs in non-PPR leagues, just two WR TDs allowed in last five weeks.
- JOHNSON: Last touchdown scored was in Week 16 last year.
- JOHNSON: Only five targets each of last two weeks, had just two games of five targets or less in previous 17 appearances dating back to last year.
