I was going to make Justin Herbert my Start of the Week for Week 12 but realized that's too obvious. Who isn't starting Herbert right now in the majority of leagues?
He's on fire coming into Week 12 against the Ravens, having scored at least 21.8 Fantasy points in four games in a row. And he just had his best game of the season in Week 11 against Cincinnati with 28.4 Fantasy points.
I love that he's attempted at least 32 passes in four of his past six games. I love that he's rushed for at least 32 yards in three of his past four outings. And I love this matchup against the Ravens.
Baltimore is No. 3 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and five of the past seven quarterbacks against the Ravens have scored at least 24.9 points. Herbert should have the chance for another huge game.
It should be a fun matchup Monday night between the Harbaugh brothers. And hopefully Jim's quarterback will dominate John's defense, which is why I expect Herbert to finish as a top-five quarterback in Week 12.
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QBs to Start
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Murray will hopefully stay hot coming off the bye in Week 11, and he has top-five upside in Week 12 against Seattle. Murray scored at least 22.2 Fantasy points in three of his past four games, and the Seahawks have allowed six of the past seven quarterbacks to score at least 20.4 Fantasy points, including three in a row. Murray is also averaging 24.0 Fantasy points per game in his past six outings against Seattle.
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Nix was awesome as the Start of the Week in Week 11 against Atlanta with a career-high 36.8 Fantasy points, and he has now scored at least 20.1 Fantasy points in five of his past seven games, including two in a row. That streak started in Week 5 against Las Vegas when he scored 27.1 Fantasy points with 206 passing yards and two touchdowns, along with 9 rushing yards and a touchdown, and I expect him to have another outstanding game against the Raiders in Week 12. Five of the past six quarterbacks against Las Vegas have scored at least 22.2 Fantasy points, including three in a row.
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Let's hope Goff doesn't have another down game on the road in Week 12 because his last two games away from Detroit haven't been good. He scored 11.6 Fantasy points at Green Bay in Week 9 and 11.8 points at Houston in Week 10 with five interceptions. In two previous road games at Dallas in Week 6 and at Minnesota in Week 7 he scored at least 22.8 Fantasy points in both outings, so I'm counting on him to perform well here. The Colts have allowed at least 20.1 Fantasy points to two of the past three opposing quarterbacks, and Goff is worth trusting as a top-10 quarterback in all leagues.
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Mayfield had his six-game streak with at least 22 Fantasy points snapped in Week 10 against San Francisco, but I expect him to get back on track coming off his bye in Week 11. Mike Evans (hamstring) is expected to return in Week 12 against the Giants, who have allowed at least 23.8 Fantasy points to two of the past four opposing quarterbacks. Mayfield has failed to score at least 20.8 Fantasy points just once this season when Evans was healthy.
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We haven't said many positive things this season about Mahomes as a Fantasy quarterback since he has scored more than 20 Fantasy points just four times. But three of those have come in the past four games, and hopefully he's getting hot at the right time as the Fantasy playoffs are approaching. Mahomes should take advantage of the Panthers this week since Carolina is No. 7 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. This is a game where Mahomes, in theory, should pad his stats.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
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Tagovailoa finally had the breakout game we've been waiting for in Week 11 against Las Vegas with a season-high 29.5 Fantasy points. He's now scored at least 21.5 Fantasy points in two of his past three games, and hopefully he's getting hot at the right time heading into the Fantasy points. This week, Tagovailoa should have another solid outing against the Patriots, who have allowed at least 21.3 Fantasy points to three of the past four opposing quarterbacks. I like Tagovailoa as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback in Week 12.
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Stroud has been a terrible Fantasy quarterback this season, and he comes into Week 12 having scored 14.4 Fantasy points or less in five games in a row. Granted, he only had Nico Collins for one of those outings, but Stroud is due for a big game, which hopefully will happen in Week 12 against the Titans. It helps that Tennessee has allowed four of the past five opposing quarterbacks to score at least 21.7 Fantasy points, including two in a row. It would be great to get Stroud back on track heading into the Fantasy playoffs.
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Maye comes into Week 12 having scored at least 21.9 Fantasy points in three of his past five healthy games, and I hope he takes advantage of this matchup against the Dolphins. Ironically, Miami has allowed three of the past four opposing quarterbacks to score at least 21.9 Fantasy points, so hopefully that's a good number for Maye again. He's a great bye-week replacement quarterback in all leagues in Week 12.
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QBs to Sit
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Darnold is more of a bust alert than a must-sit quarterback, and he's playing well of late with at least 22.2 Fantasy points in three of his past four games. But his matchup against the Bears won't be easy since Chicago is No. 1 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence in Week 6 is the lone quarterback with multiple touchdown passes against the Bears, and only Lawrence, Jayden Daniels and Jordan Love have topped 20 Fantasy points against Chicago. Darnold is only worth starting in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.
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The Cardinals defense is not an easy matchup for opposing quarterbacks, and Smith is only worth starting in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 12. The past four opposing quarterbacks against Arizona (Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Caleb Williams and Aaron Rodgers) have scored 16.7 Fantasy points or less. And Smith has scored 15.7 Fantasy points or less in three of his past five games, including two of his past three at home.
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We have a three-game sample size for Winston as the starter for the Browns, and he was excellent in two good matchups against Baltimore in Week 8 (29.6 Fantasy points) and New Orleans in Week 11 (30.6 points), but he struggled against the Chargers in Week 9 (12.1 points), which is a tough defense. He's facing another tough defense in Week 12 against the Steelers, who are No. 2 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. In the past two weeks, Pittsburgh has limited Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson to a combined 25.5 Fantasy points. This could be a rough game for Winston on Thursday night.
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Stafford is more of a bust alert than a must-sit quarterback since he's playing well coming into Week 12. He scored at least 21.9 Fantasy points in three of his past four games, including a season-high 35.8 points at New England in Week 11. But now he faces a tough test against the Eagles, who are No. 5 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Only three quarterbacks have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against Philadelphia this season and none since Week 4. And the Eagles have held Joe Burrow (14.9 Fantasy points) and Jayden Daniels (15.4 points) to minimal production in the past four weeks. Stafford is only worth starting in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.
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Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
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Richardson was a star in Week 11 against the Jets with 30.1 Fantasy points. He completed 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards and one touchdown, and he added 32 rushing yards and two touchdowns. That was an easy matchup, but things get tougher in Week 12 against Detroit since the Lions are No. 4 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Only three quarterbacks have scored more than 20 Fantasy points against Detroit this season, which were Baker Mayfield in Week 2, Geno Smith in Week 4 and somehow Mason Rudolph in Week 8. Otherwise, the Lions have limited Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold, Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, and Richardson will also be held under 20 Fantasy points in Week 12. He's only worth starting in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.
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