The first week of byes are upon us and it may hit us harder at running back than any other position. Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, and J.K. Dobbins all get a break this week. Factor in all the injuries we're dealing with and some of you will most definitely be starting running backs that you do not want to start. I have some waiver wire adds for you below, but it's also possible these starting running backs will come from your bench. Or they'll be guys you were expecting to bench soon.
Near the top of that list have to be Travis Etienne, Rachaad White, and Javonte Williams. Both Etienne and White were outperformed in Week 4 by their backups and it wasn't the first time that had happened this season, at least on the ground. Williams saw his situation improve a little, with a season-high 18 touches but turned those into just 10 PPR Fantasy points. All three have underperformed their draft capital but all three also rank inside my top 25 running backs in full PPR leagues for at least one more week.
Full PPR is a key distinction because all three backs also rank top-20 this year in receptions. This is particularly important for White, who faces a Falcons defense that has seen the sixth-most running back targets through four weeks. That's a good thing too, because White appears to be the most likely of this group to lose even more work in the running game.
Etienne and Williams face less favorable matchups through the air, but the Raiders have allowed 5.39 yards per rush to running backs this year and Denver is favored for the first time all season. I'm not going to feel good about starting either of them, but Kareem Hunt is the only back available on the waiver wire I would start over them. You can find my full set of Week 5 RB projections at SportsLine.
Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin will split the work for the Broncos.
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Numbers to know
42% -- Bucky Irving's 42% snap share in Week 4 was a season-high. He's a high-end flex trending toward becoming a low-end starting running back.
21.4% -- Kareem Hunt avoided a tackle on more than a fifth of his rushes. He certainly looked like the best running back in Kansas City.
70.5% -- Jordan Mason has handled 70.5% of San Francisco's rush attempts. Only Kyren Williams has handled a higher rate.
2.96 -- Despite two bad weeks, J.K. Dobbins still leads all running backs at 2.96 yards before contact per rush.
4.55 -- Chase Brown leads all running backs with 4.55 yards after contact per rush. He may be coming for more of Zack Moss's carries.
12 -- Najee Harris has 12 red zone rush attempts and he's scored on zero of them. Only seven backs have more red zone rush attempts than Harris, they all have at least three red zone rushing touchdowns.
8 -- Kyren Williams leads all running backs with eight carries inside the five and five rushing touchdowns from that close.
In his first game active with the Chiefs in 2024, Hunt took advantage of another Carson Steele fumble and led Chiefs running backs with 16 touches and 85 total yards while playing 45% of the teams offensive snaps. I would expect that snap share to go over 50% in Week 5 against a Saints defense that has surrendered 5.23 yards per carry to opposing running backs. There is still some risk that Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns and cuts into Hunt's workload, but in Week 4 he made it clear that he is a better option than Steele or Samaje Perine. He should be rostered in all leagues.
Hill was the top add in this space last week and finished the week as RB8 against the Buffalo Bills. He's still available in more than half of leagues and has a fantastic matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Five different running backs have scored double-digit Fantasy points against this defense in four weeks, I would expect that number to be seven by the time Derrick Henry and Hill are finished.
The Dolphins are giving up 27.5 PPR Fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and this is another situation where both running backs could be good. I like Gibson as a high-end flex in Week 5, but he has enormous upside if Rhamondre Stevenson fumbles again or if Gibson simply receives more work because he's been the hot hand.
The Jaguars are in full-on desperation mode, their head coach said everything is on the table, and Bigsby is averaging 8.2 yards per carry in a limited role. He should be added everywhere, even if I do prefer to start Etienne this week. I wouldn't hate it if I had to flex Bigsby as well.
They are not adjusting Hubbard's price fast enough. In two games with Andy Dalton at quarterback, Hubbard has 48 touches for 290 yards and two touchdowns. Only Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams have scored more Fantasy points. Hubbard should be ranked and priced as a top-12 running back even with a mediocre matchup against the Chicago Bears.
Nick Chubb's window to return has opened, but we do not expect him to play in Week 5. That means another week in the feature role for Jerome Ford, who is facing a Washington Commanders defense that has given up 5.36 yards per carry to opposing backs in the first month of the season. The Browns have been a disaster so I doubt anyone wants to play Ford, which makes him a great contrarian play in tournaments.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 5 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 4. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
