2019 MLB season win totals: Five overs and five unders we like heading into Opening Day

Almost everything that could possibly go wrong for the Dodgers in the early going went wrong last year, as they sputtered to a 16-26 start. They'd get things back together and finish with 92 wins. After that awful start, they played like a 102-win team. Corey Seager is back to replace Manny Machado, though they went a while without Machado. Justin Turner presumably plays a full season. Ditto for Kenley Jansen, who had an awful start to the year. More than anything, though, there's a soft underbelly of the division. I don't think the Padres (not yet!) Diamondbacks or Giants really come close to .500. I'd have been comfortable going over with the Dodgers on a higher number.

They had so much go right last season that it's pretty obvious they are going to get worse. Fourteen games worse, though? In a league where roughly half the teams aren't even really trying to win? No sale here. They'll win 100 games again. It's tough to pick the over on 97, where the Yankees are. Give me three extra games of cushion and it's now very easy.

I picked the Cubs over in 2015, 2016 and 2018. I'm 3-0, rather comfortably on a few of those. When you accuse me of being biased toward my favorite team, I say I resemble that remark!  

I'm also self-aware and knew they couldn't get to the 2017 number, so you should trust me. My track record is good here. Do I really need to explain?

Fine, I will.

In the preview, go to the bounce back and Javier Baez sections and remember the Cubs won 95 games last year. Even if you think they'll be worse due to the questions in the rotation and bullpen, them getting eight games worse despite lots of obvious areas of internal improvement coming is a bad bet. I could be wrong on thinking 95-plus, but I'm not wrong on fewer than 88. Go make yourself a lot of money on the Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers.

I can't keep picking all the overs of the teams listed highly. This one is honestly mostly a gut feeling. The Blue Jays do have lots of games against the Orioles and a good number against bad teams in the other two AL divisions. They won 73 last year and only need to improve by two games to get me a winner. I like it because things surely improve for Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman while there's intriguing young talent (Lourdes Gurriel, Teoscar Hernandez). Oh and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

They've already got two, so I only need 71 more. It's very reasonable to believe the Mariners even in this transition are better than the Rangers and it's possible we see them hanging around the Angels and A's for a bit. General manager Jerry Dipoto managed to start a rebuild in the offseason that still left them a non-terrible team. They added Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana, Jay Bruce, Yusei Kikuchi and Hunter Strickland to a team that already had the likes of Mitch Haniger, Marco Gonzales, Mike Leake and Kyle Seager. I like them to get to around 75 wins and that's more than 72.

I picked the Phillies as a wild card team this year but in the NL, I feel like the second wild card is going to be in the mid-80s in wins. There are a lot of good, competitive teams. The rotation after Aaron Nola is still a bit scary to me and, generally speaking, riding the under after an offseason of fireworks can be good. This isn't to trot out the tired and incorrect trope that "everybody knows teams that win the offseason lose in the regular season" (the 2009 Yankees and 2016 Cubs say hi), but it is to say that there was likely a ton of Phillies action recently that drove up the line to where I now like the under.

The Mets, Nationals and Phillies all got better in the offseason. The Braves did add Josh Donaldson, but otherwise pretty much stayed pat (subbing in Brian McCann for Kurt Suzuki, re-upping with Nick Markakis, etc.). They lost Anibal Sanchez from the rotation while Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman are dealing with an elbow and shoulder injury, respectively. They will almost certainly contend, probably even down to the wire. I just think all the above things conspire to push them below 86 wins this year.

Through Aug. 18, the Rays were 62-61. They weren't in contention. They then became awesome, apparently, going 28-11 to close out and finish with 90 wins. They were a darling for those who love seeing "value" (they stripped payroll to the bone and still won a lot of games). Well, pencil me among the others who just "don't get it" because that stretch isn't going to be repeated with this team. They'll flirt with .500 all year.

This has nothing to do with the 0-2 start, though that doesn't hurt matters. The A's got by last season with a torn-to-shreds rotation thanks to good starts from castoffs like Edwin Jackson, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson. Right now, their rotation is Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Anderson, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt. Sean Manaea is good and will miss a large portion of the season. Hotshot prospect Jesus Luzardo is hurt. I don't think we're going to see the A's get quite as fortunate with a patchwork rotation this year. Like the Rays, I expect them to flirt with .500.

I was among the first to hop on the bandwagon that the 2019 Reds had breakout potential. I'm not bailing, but I'm stepping off of it. Alex Wood is hurt and it's hard to trust Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark to be important parts of the rotation that was so bad for much of last season. The offense suffered a huge blow in losing Scooter Gennett for eight to 12 weeks and that's an awfully tough division -- notice I took the Cubs over 87.5 while not picking the under for Cardinals 88 or Brewers 86.5. I'm now finding it difficult for the Reds to improve by 10 wins. They'll come close, though, but as I noted in the intro, the lines are so good I'm generally trying to win by two or three games.