With Major League Baseball's regular season winding to a close, this part of the schedule always makes for an appropriate reflection point. While we don't have the time to do a full accounting of our preseason analysis -- games are still being played, races are still being decided -- we have carved out the space to recap one of the annual spring pieces that we put the most energy into: the breakout players column.
For those new to the column, it's a straightforward exercise: we select one player for every club we feel is in for a better year. You can find hundreds of similar pieces across the internet. The difference with ours is that we play on hard mode: we limit who we select so that we're not reprinting a top prospects list. There's nothing wrong with that approach, but in our opinion it makes for a less interesting read.
In turn, it makes it more interesting to review after the fact, when we can safely declare which players we were right about and which we were wrong about. We've done just that below, all the while offering some additional insight on each player.
Let's get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Justin Martínez
What we wrote: "We're not optimistic that Martínez is going to suddenly develop even fringe-average command, but his extreme velocity and bat-missing ability might be enough for him to get the job done in a league that witnessed 15 different relievers with 30-plus innings walk at least five per nine."
What he did: Martínez turned in one of the best relief seasons on the Diamondbacks roster, even ranking second on the staff in saves despite not breaking camp with the big-league club. The kicker is that he did make more gains with his command than we expected, walking a career-low amount of hitters. He's still wild, issuing a free pass every other inning, but that progress allowed his impressive raw stuff to play up.
Verdict: Hit
Atlanta Braves: LHP Ray Kerr
What we wrote: "Kerr has struggled with his command in the past, and it wouldn't surprise us if he leans into spamming his breaking ball more often as a means of stealing strikes."
What he did: Kerr indeed used his curveball as his primary pitch, all the while walking fewer batters than could have been reasonably expected. Unfortunately, he was limited to 10 big-league appearances before requiring Tommy John surgery in June.
Verdict: Injury
Baltimore Orioles: 2B/3B Jordan Westburg
What we wrote: "We think there's more chicken on the bone here, in no small part because Westburg showed a propensity for impacting the ball and launching it at a good angle. That tends to be a good combination."
What he did: Westburg validated our bullish view of his offense. He posted a worse batting average on balls in play and walk rate than he did during his debut season, yet his ability to impact the ball helped him improve his power output. Westburg performed so well at the plate that he made the All-Star team.
Verdict: Hit
Boston Red Sox: 2B Vaughn Grissom
What we wrote: "We believe he'll find redemption in Boston, where he can slot in at second base and focus on hitting -- something he's done, with the exception of those 23 games, throughout his professional career."
What he did: Redemption will have to wait for Grissom. He did miss a considerable amount of time because of injury, but believe it or not he performed worse across his 23 big-league appearances than he did in 2023. We'll accept the loss.
Verdict: Whiff
Chicago Cubs: LHP Luke Little
What we wrote: "Provided he keeps missing bats, and he should, he's going to be an intriguing left-handed option for manager Craig Counsell."
What he did: Little struck out roughly 10 batters per nine across 30 appearances before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in July. He still walked a lot of batters, but he managed quality of contact in a way that allowed for a 118 ERA+.
Verdict: Hit
Chicago White Sox: OF Zach DeLoach
What we wrote: "We'll be upfront: we're not sure this is going to work. DeLoach has some serious plate coverage and swing-and-miss issues, the combination of which resulted in a 28% strikeout rate last season in Triple-A and figures to do even worse in the majors. There is some pop and athleticism here, however, and it's not as though the White Sox's outfield depth chart appears impenetrable."
What he did: Hey, we acknowledged that this was far from a sure thing. DeLoach spent most of the season in Triple-A, which seems like a negative development when the White Sox were readily giving playing time to Dominic Fletcher and Corey Julks, among others.
Verdict: Whiff
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Fernando Cruz
What we wrote: "We'd like to see him chuck [his splitter] more often heading forward, perhaps even becoming one of a handful of pitchers to clear the 40% mark."
What he did: Cruz listened, throwing his splitter more than 40% of the time and striking out more than 14 batters per nine innings along the way. Alas, his fastball continued to be scorched, leading to a worse ERA than he had in 2023. If we're being honest, we might pick Cruz again next spring. He's due for better topline results.
Verdict: Whiff
Cleveland Guardians: INF Gabriel Arias
What we wrote: "He's a skilled middle infielder and productive lefty hitter who … um, just so happens to bat righty. Arias is, spiritually and statistically, better thought of as a left-handed batter. He hit .275/.332/.459 against righties last season, as opposed to his abysmal .083/.168/.148 marks versus lefties."
What he did: The good news is that Arias' platoon splits corrected themselves. The bad news is that he wasn't effective enough against either hand to avoid a career-worst showing. It's not clear where (or if) he fits onto the Guardians infield heading forward.
Verdict: Whiff
Colorado Rockies: SS Ezequiel Tovar
What we wrote: "We do think Tovar could fare better than he did last season, thanks to a decent ability to spray balls within the 10-to-30-degree window. Coors is often thought of as a launching pad – and it is – but that outfield is so spacious that we have to believe Tovar can and will drop in more singles this season, giving him a chance at an artificially improved line."
What he did: Sure enough, Tovar did improve his batting average. He upped his slugging output, too. Those gains, plus his excellent defense at shortstop, allowed him to score his first career three-win season, according to Baseball Reference.
Verdict: Hit
Detroit Tigers: RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
What we wrote: "We do think he's more interesting than he's received credit for, thanks to an offspeed-heavy approach, including a changeup with some screwball qualities and a deep release point that sees him create about 7 1/2 feet of extension from the pitching rubber."
What he did: Gipson-Long recorded more operations this year (Tommy John and hip) than he did combined regular season appearances.
Verdict: Injury
Houston Astros: RHP Oliver Ortega
What we wrote: "Forgive us for the deep cut, but the consistency of the Astros roster leaves scant room for newcomers to break through. We think Ortega has a chance to establish a foothold in a Houston bullpen that lost a few key members this winter."
What he did: Ortega didn't make a single regular season appearance at any level. He was too busy recovering from a pair of elbow procedures, including a June operation to remove a bone spur in his throwing elbow.
Verdict: Injury
Kansas City Royals: 3B Maikel García
What we wrote: "The catch with García is that he doesn't elevate the ball as frequently as those more famous lads do; for as long as that remains true, it's unlikely his slugging output will consistently match his innate strength. A breakout year from García, then, might resemble something from the B-Ref pages of either Yandy Díaz or William Contreras."
What he did: García not only hit fewer balls into the "sweet spot" launch angle range (10 to 30 degrees), he also made less authoritative contact. He's a good defender and baserunner, and those traits (plus some additional playing time) allowed him to outpace last year's WAR total. Even so, we're calling this one a loss because we were bullish on the innate potential in his bat and he just didn't make good on it.
Verdict: Whiff
Los Angeles Angels: RHP Kelvin Caceres
What we wrote: "This may not register as a surprise, but the Angels lack compelling candidates. When in doubt, go with an intriguing relief arm. Caceres has good stuff and bad command."
What he did: Caceres underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in March to repair a right lat strain. Therefore, he did not make a single regular-season appearance anywhere.
Verdict: Injury
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Emmet Sheehan
What we wrote: "Given how many injured pitchers the Dodgers have in camp, it's fair to expect Sheehan will get a real chance at changing his status from 'interesting young right-hander' to 'rotation stalwart.'"
What he did: Unfortunately, Sheehan turned into one of those injured Dodgers pitchers. He wasn't ready for the start of the regular season, and he then underwent Tommy John surgery in May that ensured he would finish the year without an appearance.
Verdict: Injury
Miami Marlins: OF Bryan De La Cruz
What we wrote: "A wiser soul than us would argue that was a win or would learn their lesson and pick someone else in this spot. Not us, no sir. We're doubling down."
What he did: We should have listened to the wiser soul. De La Cruz was on pace to have a better season than last year before he was traded to the Pirates at the deadline. He's since played so poorly that he's completely tanked his numbers. His expected performance on contact metrics remain strong, but that stuff doesn't pay the bills. Nor, in our judgment, does it make him anything close to a successful selection.
Verdict: Whiff
Milwaukee Brewers: 1B/OF Jake Bauers
What we wrote: "Yet we can understand why the Brewers are giving him a look after a season in which nearly half his batted balls had an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. It's possible to be a bad hitter despite impacting the ball that often – an inflated strikeout rate, like Bauers', is one such way – but it's not easy. We'll take our chances with Bauer in his age-28 season. If it's another whiff, we'll give up the ghost."
What he did: For a time, this looked like a win. Bauers had an .802 OPS entering mid-May. That didn't last for long. When he has played as of late, he's been so terrible that his seasonal marks are the same old, same old from him. Consider the ghost abandoned.
Verdict: Whiff
Minnesota Twins: RHP Louie Varland
What we wrote: "We thought Varland would solidify himself as a back-end starter thanks to his deception and location. He went out there and, over the course of 68 innings, showed improved fastball velocity while striking out 4.18 batters per walk issued. Alas, Varland also surrendered more than two home runs per nine innings, thwarting his breakout attempt."
What he did: You're going to win almost all the bets you make on a pitcher not surrendering more than two homers per nine innings in consecutive seasons if afforded enough innings. There are exceptions, though, and one of them is Varland. His gopheritis has plagued him throughout a nearly 100-inning sample. Something has to give sooner than later: either his home-run proneness or his roster spot.
Verdict: Whiff
New York Mets: RHP Shintaro Fujinami
What we wrote: "He did a better job of generating chases following a midseason trade to the Orioles, and he'll need to continue to improve in that respect if he's going to overcome what can be charitably described as below-average command. Should there be such a thing as a make-or-break season, this would be it."
What he did: The Mets signed a bunch of upside plays over the offseason. We chose the wrong one to back. Fujinami hasn't made a single big-league appearance this season. Worst yet, he hasn't even been good at the minor-league level.
Verdict: Whiff
New York Yankees: C/OF Austin Wells
What we wrote: "We're willing to pick Wells here on the strength of what should be a league-average (or so) bat and a decent opportunity to carve out playing time."
What he did: If anything, we undersold Wells. His offense has been considerably better than average, helping him stake out everyday catching duties in the Bronx. Wells' defense has also improved, with him ranking in the 97th percentile for framing.
Verdict: Hit
Oakland Athletics: INF Abraham Toro
What we wrote: "The A's aren't trying in the slightest, so they can give him a few hundred plate appearances without the results mattering much either way. And if Toro does actually perform? He could make for an interesting trade candidate at the deadline."
What he did: Toro actually outperformed his career marks by a fair margin this season, but we can't call it a win. The Athletics cut him in August to free up a roster spot. As it turns out, there's a difference between improvement and employment.
Verdict: Whiff
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Michael Mercado
What we wrote: "We're rolling with Mercado, a minor offseason addition who should see big-league action at some point this summer. Mercado has a rising mid-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss curveball."
What he did: Mercado did indeed make his big-league debut this summer. He appeared in five games for the Phillies, albeit without posting great results. Mercado was better in Triple-A, where he split the season between starting and relieving.
Verdict: Whiff
Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes
What we wrote: "Now that Hayes is lifting the ball more frequently, we think there's a chance he has a career-best offensive showing. That, combined with his stellar glove, could lift him to national relevancy."
What he did: This one hurts. We thought Hayes was in for a big year after showing some encouraging signs of progress last season. What Hayes delivered instead was by far the worst offensive effort of his big-league career. Not only did he revert to hitting the ball into the ground constantly, but he did so while making worse quality of contact. He's still a brilliant defender at the hot corner, but he's nearing his 28th birthday and it might be time to forget about him becoming a plus hitter.
Verdict: Whiff
San Diego Padres: RHP Jeremiah Estrada
What we wrote: "Estrada was claimed off waivers by the Padres in November. We're not sure if they'll be able to help him throw more strikes, but last season was so uncharacteristic of him that we're going to hold out hope for at least another year."
What he did: Estrada more than justified our years of belief in his game by asserting himself as a plus reliever. At one point, he set a new modern MLB record by striking out 13 consecutive batters. We think it's safe to label this one a big win.
Verdict: Hit
San Francisco Giants: RHP Keaton Winn
What we wrote: "We'd feel better about Winn's chances of sticking in a traditional rotation for the long haul if he developed a third pitch."
What he did: Winn was limited to 12 appearances before succumbing to season-ending elbow surgery (ulnar nerve transposition). He wasn't good in those games, so we'll take the loss rather than chalking it up as inconclusive on account of the injury.
Verdict: Whiff
Seattle Mariners: RHP Carlos Vargas
What we wrote: "He has massive arm strength, comfortably sitting in the upper 90s with his four-seamer, as well as a cutter that last year generated 33% whiffs overall. He did battle his command in 2023, but his track record suggests there's just enough command here to make it work at the game's highest level."
What he did: Vargas didn't pitch in the majors this season. His strikeout rate cratered to a career-low 6.3 per nine in Triple-A, making it tough for the Mariners to justify giving him a look. As it turns out, we would've been better suited picking a different Mariners reliever, be it a Collin Snider or a Troy Taylor.
Verdict: Whiff
St. Louis Cardinals: INF Thomas Saggese
What we wrote: "The Cardinals have gotten more mileage than arguably any other franchise with this profile. We think Saggese will continue that legacy and will find himself playing a meaningful role by summer."
What he did: Saggese did not slot into a meaningful role by summer. He only recently arrived at the big-league level, having authored a disappointing Triple-A season by his standards. We still think he'll be a quality player, but we can't call this a win.
Verdict: Whiff
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Taj Bradley
What we wrote: "Bradley has both above-average stuff and control, and you're going to win most of the time if you bet against pitchers with those qualities, surrendering nearly two home runs for every nine innings pitched. Buy in now before he's solidified himself as a legitimate mid-rotation starter."
What he did: Bradley's home-run rate is still higher than we'd like -- he's at 1.6 per nine as of this writing -- but he's been a roughly league-average starter this season. Although we expected better overall, we think we can count this one as a win based on the gap between his performances this season and last.
Verdict: Hit
Texas Rangers: UTL Josh H. Smith
What we wrote: "Smith makes contact and minds the zone at above-average clips. He also showed an appreciable feel for barreling balls in 2023, and there's more juice here than folks will suspect -- his 109.8 mph max exit velocity was in line with the likes of Willy Adames and Ryan O'Hearn, among others. Playing time isn't going to be easy to come by, but given a chance, we think Smith might end up proving that he's overqualified for his role."
What he did: Smith, it turns out, came into a lot more playing time than we expected. We figured he'd be doing well to crack 300 plate appearances; he's up over 530. Smith has made the most of the chance, too, chalking up a 3.5-win season thanks to an improved line and quality defense across the diamond.
Verdict: Hit
Toronto Blue Jays: 1B Spencer Horwitz
What we wrote: "Horwitz is our pick based on his contact and on-base chops. In Triple-A last year, he walked more than he struck out while batting .337/.450/.495. We can envision him getting some run at DH, perhaps in a platoon capacity, and faring well enough to keep the checks coming."
What he did: Horwitz has seen some action at DH, though he's mostly split his time between the right side of the infield. Nevertheless, we chose him because of his bat and his bat has delivered. He's put those contact and on-base skills to use. We didn't think his ISO would threaten .200, but his hard-hit percentage suggests that sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
Verdict: Hit
Washington Nationals: LHP Robert Garcia
What we wrote: "Garcia doesn't have the kind of stuff associated with being a high-leverage arm, but a steady gig in middle relief seems within grasp for this former 15th-round pick."
What he did: Garcia posted a below-average ERA and that's generally enough for us to label a pick a bust. We're not willing to do that here based on his overwhelmingly strong underlying measures. Seriously, go to his Baseball Savant page and look at all the red before you scoff. He ranked in the 91st percentile in strikeout rate; the 97th percentile in expected ERA; the 74th percentile in average exit velocity; and so on. He clearly had a much better year than his ERA indicates.
Verdict: Hit
Summary
We've been doing these breakout columns since 2019. A typical year for us includes between 10 to 12 successes. We fell into that range this year, hitting on 10. Considering the restrictions we place upon ourselves, we'll take the .300 average.
This was, so far as we can recall, the most injury-plagued list we've ever published: five different players had their seasons either wiped out or mostly wiped out. We suppose the lesson there is to pick fewer pitchers.
Our biggest hits were Jordan Westburg, Austin Wells, Ezequiel Tovar, Josh H. Smith, and Jeremiah Estrada -- each of those hitters have or will clear the three-win mark before the season ends (Wells will once you factor in his framing skills).
Of our misses, we're most disappointed with Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan De La Cruz, and Maikel García. There is a hint of connective tissue between the three, as each had promising quality of contact data but needed to improve their spray. We'll have to think about how to approach similar cases heading forward.
Overall, though, we think it's fair to conclude this to be a solid year for the breakout players column. Join us again in a few months as we do it all over again.