Wilson's 2027 NFL mock draft: Arch Manning falls out of Round 1 where five QBs are taken

With September behind us, Mock Draft 2.0 looks a lot different from version 1.0 – and a lot of that has to do with the quarterbacks.

We've talked for months (and in some cases, years) about why this class was so deep at quarterback. And in many ways, it is – just not in the manner some of us predicted. Not only has Arch Manning not looked like the No. 1 overall pick, compared to recent draft classes, but he also hasn't even looked like a first-rounder. I know that will anger some of you, but I encourage you to read this and draw your own conclusions based on the data.

Dante Moore hasn't been nearly as efficient either. You can blame a poor offensive line, receivers that struggle to get open, or losing offensive coordinator Will Stein to Kentucky, but it's also often the case that highly drafted QBs go to bad NFL teams. Yes, these are excuses for why Moore's play has regressed, but it's also what he can expect at the next level.

Even with Manning and Moore not playing up to expectations, the QB class has been pleasantly surprising. CJ Carr and Drew Mestemaker are making real cases as first-rounders, but I'm assuming both return to college for their 2027 seasons until further notice.

There have even been rumblings that Manning could return to Texas again, and honestly, it might be in his best long-term interests. Because after several mock drafts where I've thrown around some variation of "Manning's traits are special, his play just needs to match it," I'm leaving him out of this mock draft altogether.

I do have Moore, who is currently injured, in this mock, however. In part because he was my QB1 over the summer, in part because he would have been the second quarterback drafted last April had he declared for the draft. He hasn't forgotten how to play at a high level, though I do like other QBs in the class more than him right now.

And that brings us to Darian Mensah and Trinidad Chambliss. Mensah is getting legit QB1 buzz from some scouts, while Chambliss might be the most NFL-ready of the group.

OK, let's get to it!

Note: The draft order was determined using the reverse Super Bowl odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jets have three first-round picks: their own, the Cowboys' from the Quinnen Williams trade and the Colts' from the Sauce Gardner trade. The Cowboys have the Packers' selection from the Micah Parsons trade. The Browns have two first-round picks: their own and the Rams' from the Myles Garrett trade. 

NFL Mock Draft

Round 1

Round 1 - Pick 1 Jeremiah Smith WR Ohio State • Jr • 6'4" / 222 lbs Projected Team Miami PROSPECT RNK 2nd POSITION RNK 1st REC 44 REYDS 823 YDS/REC 18.7 TDS 9 Smith is the best player in college football, and it may not be particularly close. And if the Dolphins feel like Malik Willis is a better option than any of the QBs in this class, Smith is an easy choice here.

Round 1 - Pick 2 Colin Simmons EDGE Texas • Jr • 6'3" / 246 lbs Projected Team Tennessee PROSPECT RNK 6th POSITION RNK 2nd Simmons has been dominant (suspect post-sack celebrations aside), and you could argue he's been better than David Bailey and Abdul Carter -- two former top-three edge rushers -- at this point in their final college seasons.

Round 1 - Pick 3 Darian Mensah QB Miami (Fla.) • Jr • 6'3" / 205 lbs Projected Team Arizona PROSPECT RNK NR POSITION RNK NR PAYDS 1438 RUYDS 79 INTS 0 TDS 17 The Miami QB has been one of the most efficient college quarterbacks in recent history through the first five weeks.

Round 1 - Pick 4 Leonard Moore CB Notre Dame • Jr • 6'2" / 197 lbs Projected Team Cleveland PROSPECT RNK 3rd POSITION RNK 1st If you're looking for holes in Moore's game, well, good luck to you. He's a special talent and reminds me of Patrick Surtain II.

Round 1 - Pick 5 Trinidad Chambliss QB Ole Miss • Sr • 6'0" / 210 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Jets PROSPECT RNK 32nd POSITION RNK 4th PAYDS 1222 RUYDS 108 INTS 3 TDS 12 Chambliss has been one of the best QBs in college football so far this season, and while he'll be a 25-year-old rookie, there's no denying how consistent he's been against SEC competition -- which isn't something you can say about a few of the highly touted passers in the class.

Round 1 - Pick 6 Will Echoles DL Ole Miss • Jr • 6'3" / 315 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Giants PROSPECT RNK 15th POSITION RNK 3rd Echoles' power, hand usage and ability to be disruptive against the run are all over the tape, and his first-step quickness gives him more pass-rush value than a pure run-stuffer.

Round 1 - Pick 7 Jordan Seaton OT LSU • Jr • 6'5" / 311 lbs Projected Team Carolina PROSPECT RNK 7th POSITION RNK 2nd Seaton hasn't allowed a sack this season, and even though the Panthers used their 2026 first-rounder on Monroe Freeling, there are still questions at left tackle beyond this season.

Round 1 - Pick 8 Ashton Hampton CB Clemson • Jr • 6'2" / 205 lbs Projected Team Pittsburgh PROSPECT RNK 8th POSITION RNK 2nd Hampton has been one of the few bright spots for Clemson this season, and whether the Steelers miss Joey Porter Jr. or not, they need to reinforce the cornerback position.

Round 1 - Pick 9 Charlie Becker WR Indiana • Jr • 6'4" / 208 lbs Projected Team Tampa Bay PROSPECT RNK 12th POSITION RNK 3rd REC 27 REYDS 477 YDS/REC 17.7 TDS 8 Becker is the king of the back-shoulder throw, but he also has legit deep speed and would give the Bucs a big-bodied deep target in a post-Mike Evans world.

Round 1 - Pick 10 Dante Moore QB Oregon • Sr • 6'3" / 220 lbs Projected Team Atlanta PROSPECT RNK 11th POSITION RNK 3rd PAYDS 926 RUYDS -7 INTS 0 TDS 9 Dante Moore has struggled through the first month of the 2026 season, in part because the offensive line has been awful, in part because his receivers have struggled to get open, and in part because of the vicious headshot he took against USC. But here's the thing: Highly drafted QBs typically go to teams with poor O-lines, so Moore absolutely needs to play better (we got a brief glimpse of that early in the USC game before he was injured). But he also would have been the No. 2 pick in the 2026 draft had he declared, so it's not like he's forgotten how to play. A strong second half of the season puts him right back in the conversation.

Round 1 - Pick 11 David Stone DL Oklahoma • Jr • 6'3" / 315 lbs Projected Team Las Vegas PROSPECT RNK 13th POSITION RNK 1st Stone was battling injuries early in the season, and he hasn't looked like the 2025 version of himself. But if he can get back to that, he's a first-round talent all day long.

Round 1 - Pick 12 Trevor Goosby OT Texas • Sr • 6'7" / 325 lbs Projected Team L.A. Chargers PROSPECT RNK 5th POSITION RNK 1st Goosby, who would've likely been a first-rounder had he declared for the '26 draft, has a huge frame and high-end athletic traits that allow him to anchor effectively against power. That said, he remains a raw prospect who can struggle with quicker pass rushers.

Round 1 - Pick 13 Jadan Baugh RB Florida • Jr • 6'1" / 225 lbs Projected Team Washington PROSPECT RNK 20th POSITION RNK 2nd RUYDS 613 YDS/ATT 6.5 REYDS 35 TDS 11 My comp for Baugh going back to summer scouting was Le'Veon Bell. Turns out he's better than the Michigan State version of Bell and is currently the best back in college football.

From Indianapolis Colts Round 1 - Pick 14 Greg Johnson IOL Minnesota • Sr • 6'6" / 325 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Jets PROSPECT RNK 17th POSITION RNK 2nd Johnson has been quietly dominant for the Gophers, both in the run game and in pass protection. He was 28th on my big board heading into the season, and he's exceeded that through the first month, allowing exactly zero pressures.

Round 1 - Pick 15 Will Heldt EDGE Clemson • Sr • 6'6" / 260 lbs Projected Team New Orleans PROSPECT RNK 22nd POSITION RNK 3rd Like Clemson teammate Ashton Hampton, Heldt is one of the few reasons for optimism. He has 17 pressures and five sacks and would fill a need in New Orleans.

From Green Bay Packers Round 1 - Pick 16 Elijah Paige OT USC • Jr • 6'7" / 315 lbs Projected Team Dallas PROSPECT RNK 67th POSITION RNK 11th Page has had a strong start to the 2026 season, allowing just three pressures and no sacks. He was a top-50 player this summer and has a chance to crack the first round.

Round 1 - Pick 17 Cam Coleman WR Texas • Jr • 6'3" / 204 lbs Projected Team Minnesota PROSPECT RNK 10th POSITION RNK 2nd REC 12 REYDS 208 YDS/REC 17.3 TDS 4 Coleman has been up and down so far this season for the Longhorns (and you could say that for the offense as a whole), but he flashes first-round, big-play talent, something the Patriots' WR room has been missing for a very long time.

Round 1 - Pick 18 Trevor Lauck OT Iowa • Sr • 6'5" / 314 lbs Projected Team Houston PROSPECT RNK 35th POSITION RNK 5th A high-floor tackle who could kick inside at the next level, Lauck is stout at the point of attack and also thrives in zone-blocking schemes because of his mobility and athleticism. He hasn't allowed a sack all season.

From Dallas Cowboys Round 1 - Pick 19 Chris Cole LB Georgia • Jr • 6'3" / 235 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Jets PROSPECT RNK 102nd POSITION RNK 6th Cole is an explosive off-ball linebacker and edge rusher who pairs stout point-of-attack run defense with fluid coverage skills and multi-alignment pass-rush traits. He has missed exactly zero tackles this season.

Round 1 - Pick 20 Jayden Maiava QB USC • Sr • 6'4" / 230 lbs Projected Team Minnesota PROSPECT RNK NR POSITION RNK NR PAYDS 1744 RUYDS -4 INTS 3 TDS 17 He's been really good through six games. He's one of the best anticipation throwers in the class, and his ability to layer balls to the second level is second to none. He would excel in a Kevin O'Connell system.

Round 1 - Pick 21 Devan Thompkins DL Alabama • Sr • 6'5" / 300 lbs Projected Team Chicago PROSPECT RNK 101st POSITION RNK 13th A USC transfer, Thompkins has shown real inside-out versatility: He can win with power, athleticism or bend around the edge.

Round 1 - Pick 22 Jamari Johnson TE Oregon • Sr • 6'5" / 255 lbs Projected Team Denver PROSPECT RNK 27th POSITION RNK 1st REC 11 REYDS 176 YDS/REC 16 TDS 1 Sean Payton loves athletic tight ends, and Jamari Johnson is in the same conversation as former Oregon standouts Kenyon Sadiq and Terrance Ferguson.

Round 1 - Pick 23 Kelley Jones CB Mississippi State • Sr • 6'4" / 205 lbs Projected Team Cincinnati PROSPECT RNK 23rd POSITION RNK 3rd The Bengals defense has improved in 2026, but they still need more at corner, and Jones gives them a long, physical press-man defender with the zone instincts and ball skills to create turnovers.

Round 1 - Pick 24 Emmanuel Oyebadejo DL Florida • Sr • 6'6" / 299 lbs Projected Team Jacksonville PROSPECT RNK NR POSITION RNK NR Ran Carthon, Florida alum and my co-host on the "With the First Pick" NFL Draft podcast, put Oyebadejo on my radar a few weeks ago, and while he is raw, he's also been dominant against SEC competition -- no matter where he lines up.

Round 1 - Pick 25 Ty Benefield S LSU • Sr • 6'3" / 216 lbs Projected Team Detroit PROSPECT RNK 57th POSITION RNK 4th The Lions have two of the best safeties in football ... when they're healthy. Benefield is a tackling machine coming downhill, but he's been good in coverage, too.

Round 1 - Pick 26 KJ Duff WR Rutgers • Jr • 6'6" / 225 lbs Projected Team Philadelphia PROSPECT RNK 53rd POSITION RNK 8th REC 33 REYDS 628 YDS/REC 19 TDS 7 Duff is one of the best contested-catch receivers in college football, and that label can be a double-edged sword. Yes, he's physical at the catch point, but it could also be an indication that he struggles to consistently separate. Either way, he'd be a welcome addition in Philly, where the loss of A.J. Brown seems to be a bigger deal than maybe the organization initially figured when it shipped him to New England.

Round 1 - Pick 27 Trey'Dez Green TE LSU • Jr • 6'7" / 242 lbs Projected Team Kansas City PROSPECT RNK 62nd POSITION RNK 4th REC 14 REYDS 222 YDS/REC 15.9 TDS 1 Green is a more physical version of Kyle Pitts. He suffered a knee injury on Sept. 19, but luckily it didn't require surgery, and he should be back in a few weeks.

Round 1 - Pick 28 Yhonzae Pierre EDGE Alabama • Sr • 6'4" / 251 lbs Projected Team San Francisco PROSPECT RNK 47th POSITION RNK 6th Pierre doesn't know that he's undersized by edge-rusher standards because he's a twitched-up pass rusher who plays with elite leverage, explosive bull-rush ability and the ability to make plays either off the edge or off-ball.

Round 1 - Pick 29 Kade Pieper IOL Iowa • Sr • 6'3" / 298 lbs Projected Team Baltimore PROSPECT RNK 16th POSITION RNK 1st Woo boy, the Ravens have real needs along the interior O-line, mostly because guys can't stay healthy. Pieper, who plays guard but has also taken snaps at center during his college career, is a really good athlete who has allowed just one pressure this season.

Round 1 - Pick 30 Dylan Stewart EDGE South Carolina • Jr • 6'5" / 250 lbs Projected Team Seattle PROSPECT RNK 4th POSITION RNK 1st Stewart is a top-five talent who is going to have to prove to NFL teams that his recent suspension isn't a reflection of who he is as a teammate.

From Los Angeles Rams Round 1 - Pick 31 Julian Sayin QB Ohio State • Jr • 6'1" / 214 lbs Projected Team Cleveland PROSPECT RNK 85th POSITION RNK 7th PAYDS 1530 RUYDS 6 INTS 1 TDS 15 While it's tough to separate his success from the "Jeremiah Smith Experience" making everyone around him better, that's a much better problem to have than trying to talk yourself into a highly touted quarterback whose tape isn't matching the preseason expectations.

Round 1 - Pick 32 Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB Notre Dame • Jr • 6'3" / 230 lbs Projected Team Buffalo PROSPECT RNK 36th POSITION RNK 3rd Viliamu-Asa suffered a knee injury late last season, but you wouldn't know it watching him in '26. He's a terror as an off-ball LB or coming off the edge, combining high-level run-stopping instincts with smooth, safety-like coverage skills.