Normally, when I write, I deal in optimism. Giving fans a reason for hope, something to look forward to when their favorite team takes the field.

Today is not one of those days.

The NFL trade deadline has come and gone, and while most teams have improved their chances at winning a Super Bowl, I'm here to pour a little bit of cold water on the excitement. No team is perfect, especially this year, when it feels like there's much more parity across the board. While there are obvious Super Bowl contenders, even those teams have flaws that could stop them from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come February. Let's break down the fatal flaw of every contender at midseason, and if it comes true, then you can blame me.

*Contenders chosen using DraftKings Sportsbook midseason Super Bowl odds

San Francisco 49ers: Depth

I'm convinced the 49ers are living their own separate version of the movie "Groundhog Day." Every year they come in as legitimate contenders, then it all unravels because of injury. Well, this year is no different, with their depth already being tested.

On the defensive side of the ball, standout rookie DT Gracen Halton is going to miss the rest of the season with a broken ankle, and CBs Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green are both nursing foot injuries (but those are more day-to-day, according to Kyle Shanahan). Offensively, WR Mike Evans hasn't played since week 6, and WR Deebo Samuel hasn't played since week 5. They've gotten by with playing WRs Jordan Watkins, Brandin Cooks and Demarcus Robinson , but that's not a Super Bowl-winning trio. However, they did recently trade for Keenan Allen.

The spin zone here is that the cavalry is coming for reinforcements. Adding DT DeForest Buckner before the trade deadline was a huge move for the defensive line, helping them get more pressure without blitzing (the 49ers are 30th in the NFL in blitz rate and 20th in sack rate without blitzing). I've been a fan of what DC Raheem Morris has been able to get out of this defense, playing to the speed at the second and third level, and adding Buckner to that group should let the secondary play even faster (losing Halton sucks, though). 

The more worrisome part is Evans, who is still more than likely not going to play against Dallas next week. Achilles tendinitis is scary, especially at Evans' age. He was such a critical part of why the Niners offense was back to the face-melting unit they've been in previous years, and if he can't go for the long haul, I worry about how this team can win the Super Bowl.

Buffalo Bills: Preventing explosive plays

Despite adding safety Amani Hooker at the trade deadline, I still think the Bills' pass defense overall is the weakest part of the unit. As long as they don't get to play Carson Wentz every week, the Bills' pass defense is going to be what holds them back. 

The Bills' defensive line has been a revelation this season; with the growth of EDGE Greg Rousseau and DT Deone Walker, the Bills are eighth in the NFL in pressure rate. However, their splits when they're under pressure versus when they're not are staggering. According to TruMedia, when they get pressure, they have a 69.5% defensive success rate and 0.15 defensive EPA/dropback. Combine all plays where they force a PBU, INT, TFL and sack together when they get pressure, and you get a 21.9% havoc rate when recording a pressure. When they don't get pressure, their defensive success rate drops to 45.5% (only above the Raiders), -0.31 defensive EPA per dropback, and that havoc rate? Yeah, it drops to 11.4%. Not a great look for their coverage unit.

The biggest problem is that they give up explosive plays, and while some of that should be ironed out by adding Hooker, I worry that DC Jim Leonhard just doesn't have the guys to prevent explosive plays in the middle of the field. If you just whittle it down to passing attempts between the hashmarks in the middle of the field, they've given up the second most completions of 20 or more yards in that area in the NFL. If they can't limit big plays, I worry about how much will be on the offense to keep cleaning up the defense's mistakes.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Offensive line

The Jacksonville Jaguars have arrived. After starting the season 6-2, the Jaguars made a massive splash at the trade deadline, acquiring S Jessie Bates and DT Jordan Davis to shore up two of their bigger issues on the defensive line. However, if this team falls before winning a Super Bowl, it'll be because of their pass protection. 

On the surface, the Jaguars' offensive line looks good. They're tied for the fifth-lowest sacks allowed this season and eighth-lowest pressure rate allowed. On top of that, the Jaguars' ability to grind games down by running the football has been evident this season. However, digging into those numbers and watching the Jaguars play tells a different story. 

In the passing game, Trevor Lawrence has been incredible this season at mitigating pressure and getting the ball out (a major part of his MVP case). Then, in the run game, the Jaguars are only above the Raiders in average yards before contact per carry, at 0.68 (their yards after contact per carry are 3.40, 6th in the NFL). The offensive line has been overwhelmed by interior pressure, with rookie LG Emmanuel Pregnon and RG Ezra Cleveland up and down in pass protection. Starting LT Anton Harrison has been lost for the season, and while Walker Little has performed admirably in his absence, it'll always be a worry for the Jaguars.

Lawrence has, like I said, been amazing at mitigating pressure and making plays around it. But in order to get out of the AFC, they'll have to face guys like Zach Allen, Dexter Lawrence, Cameron Heyward and more. If this team doesn't get to the Super Bowl, it'll be because the offensive line fell apart.

Chicago Bears: Secondary

The Bears and the Jaguars back-to-back in Super Bowl contender stories — what a beautiful world we live in. The Bears look like one of the most complete teams in the NFL, with an offense that can score at will or grind teams into dust. To complement that offense, the Bears added a nitro boost to the defense by trading for DT Jeffrey Simmons, and that trade already looks like it paid off. However, if this team doesn't win the whole thing this year, it'll be because of a secondary that has been…volatile to say the least.

This isn't to say the Bears' secondary isn't talented. Kyler Gordon is an awesome nickel, and I've been impressed with the play of rookie Malik Muhammad on the outside. However, Muhammad has missed the last two games with a toe injury, leaving the Bears thin in the secondary. The mainstay of the group, CB Jaylon Johnson, has been inconsistent this season as well. I was of the belief that the Bears should've added another corner at the deadline to just give them some more insurance, but by not adding anyone, it shows a lot of belief in that group. I wouldn't believe in that group as much, and if they don't win it all, it'll be because the secondary fell apart.

Kansas City Chiefs: Creating explosive passes

I never thought I'd say this about a Patrick Mahomes-led unit, but the Chiefs' passing game isn't very explosive. Kansas City is only 21st in the NFL in completions of 20 or more yards this season, despite having a high rate of explosive passes. That is probably because only 14.4% of Patrick Mahomes' passing attempts this season are between 11 and 20 air yards, and only 8.4% are over 20 air yards, both near the bottom of the NFL. 

Without WR Tyquan Thornton on the field, there's nobody who can win on passes downfield. Among all the Chiefs receivers this season, Thornton still leads the team in receptions of at least 16 or more air yards, despite going down in Week 4. Xavier Worthy leads the team in targets in that metric, but he only has two catches at that range. Not being able to hit any explosives makes the offense so much more congested, leaving the run game too little space to breathe and allowing opposing defenses to squat on all the crossing routes Kansas City likes to run.

The Chiefs did add a receiver at the deadline, trading for Indy's Josh Downs. Where Downs will help is in creating separation against man coverage and loosening up the offense in the intermediate game so Rice can be the over-the-top and YAC guy. But this team is still missing that third gear downfield. Worthy hasn't been consistent and is now out with a hamstring injury, so adding someone with size and speed in free agency could be key (Darius Slayton could be fun). 

Maybe the hope is that the run game provides the explosives, which is definitely possible. But if the Chiefs fail to win the Super Bowl for the third straight year, it'll be because they can't create any explosive passes.

Cincinnati Bengals: Shaky linebacker play

This Bengals team feels like a warm hug, a truly vintage Burrow-era Bengals unit. One of the most face-melting offenses the NFL has seen (doing it without even wanting to run the ball or getting under center), and a field-tilting defensive lineman who can absolutely take over. However, if this team isn't raising the Lombardi at the end of the season, it'll be because of some real shoddy linebacker play. 

The trio of Barrett Carter, Demetrius Knight Jr and Oren Burks doesn't exactly inspire confidence, especially when it comes to pass coverage. All three guys are better at flowing fast downhill and creating negative plays in the run game, but their eyes can be manipulated in coverage. The Bengals are tied for the fifth-most plays of over 20 yards allowed on play action in the NFL this season, and in both of their losses, the Bengals linebackers have been poor in coverage. Because they are fitting the run so aggressively, they leave themselves susceptible to explosives in the middle of the field off play action, which is where every team is trying to hunt in the NFL.

If you look at all the teams in the AFC, they're all incredible at manipulating linebackers via play action and getting wires crossed. For the Bengals to beat teams like Buffalo, Jacksonville, Kansas City and Pittsburgh, their linebacker play needs to improve in pass coverage. I'm a little surprised they didn't try to add to the linebacker room at the trade deadline, but given how their first trade went down, it makes sense they bowed out after that. Either way, their linebacker play hasn't been up to par this season, and it could be their downfall.

Los Angeles Rams: Inefficient downfield passing

If I had a nickel for every time an NFL "Superteam" was unraveled by injury and poor play, I'd have two nickels. That's not a lot, but the fact that it happened twice is relevant. The Rams have gone from being everyone's Super Bowl favorite to being on the brink of missing the playoffs entirely, a cataclysmic drop that will have many people asking what happened. 

Aside from the obvious caveat that everyone important on the team has been hurt at some point this season, I think the biggest reason this team hasn't been the same unit is that they can't hit explosive passes. Take this as a comparison: According to TruMedia, the Rams had a 15.9% explosive pass rate last season, good for sixth in the NFL. In 2026, that number has dropped to 10.8%, below teams like the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers. 

Now, part of that has legitimately been due to injuries to players like WR Davante Adams, TE Terrance Ferguson and now WR Puka Nacua, but Matthew Stafford just hasn't been accurate outside the numbers this season. A large part of their explosive offense last year was Stafford catching fire on those passes, drilling corners and out routes to stop defenses from congesting the middle of the field. 

Overall, TruMedia has Stafford's off-target rate jumping up three percentage points this season, but when you specify passes on the sideline or outside the numbers, his off-target rate has jumped from 15% in 2025 to 28.6% this season. That's an alarming uptick in inaccuracy, one that is telling for an older QB like Stafford. If he can't drill those passes, the offense becomes much more difficult. If the Rams want to make the playoffs, they need to get healthy. If they want to win a Super Bowl, Stafford has to hit those passes more often.

Denver Broncos: Inconsistent Passing Game

As it currently stands, the Broncos have a 37.1% passing success rate, 28th in the NFL. Since 2010, the worst passing offense to win a Super Bowl by that metric is the 2015 Denver Broncos…who were at 42.2%. It would be historically unprecedented for a team with as bad a passing offense as the Broncos to win the Super Bowl, and it's by far the Broncos' biggest flaw. 

Now, I will add that every year the Broncos' passing game starts off slow and then picks up by the time the playoffs roll around, and so far this season that's proven to be the case. However, I still think the passing offense is far too inconsistent for me to trust them in close game scenarios.

For the Broncos to win the Super Bowl, Nix has to consistently hit the designed passes in the middle of the field. He's done a better job of that recently than in previous weeks, but against healthy secondaries I worry that the offense will turtle back on itself and not allow Sean Payton's well-designed offense to click. Everything is in position for this offense to once again hit their late-season surge, but if they want to win a Super Bowl, the passing game needs to start clicking.

Seattle Seahawks: Lack of explosive runs

Everyone is wondering what's wrong with the Seahawks' offense this season. Is it a decline from QB Sam Darnold? OC Brian Fleury doesn't pull the same levers as Klint Kubiak did? Is it just general regression? In a way, all of these are correct, but the root of the problem is that they aren't an explosive running team this season. 

Last year, while the Seahawks' run game wasn't "great" (-0.04 EPA per carry, 39.5% rushing success rate on all designed runs), they had a 7.3% explosive rushing rate. This season, the Seahawks' run game has fallen off a cliff, putting up a putrid -0.20 EPA per carry, 33.5% rushing success rate and a 6.2% explosive rushing rate. Even last season when the Seahawks' run game wasn't exactly the most efficient, you could count on at least a few explosive runs from their offense to keep the thought in defenses' heads and make the game easier on Darnold. Without any explosive runs AND being inefficient, the Seahawks consistently put themselves behind the sticks and in obvious passing situations, where Darnold doesn't thrive.

There is a solution to this problem: Quenton Nelson. The Seahawks traded for the LG before the deadline, and he looked as advertised before going down with an injury. Once he and LT Charles Cross get back, the run game could improve. But if the Seahawks fail to repeat, you can blame the lack of explosive runs.

Detroit Lions: Secondary play

Remember earlier when I said the Bills have a problem preventing explosive plays? Ditto for the Lions, who have been hit by the injury bug once again. Despite getting S Brian Branch back, the secondary still has issues with defending the pass. 

Per Sumer Sports, the Lions are 22nd in the NFL in passing success rate allowed and 28th in EPA/pass allowed. The biggest issue has come when they play man coverage, leaving their cornerbacks on islands. CB DJ Reed has made the occasional big play, but CB Rock Ya-Sin has been targeted often, as has Roger McCreary. The back-end coverage play has undone what has been a very good season for their defensive front, preventing them from getting home and making plays.

The Lions' offense is Super Bowl caliber, and I think their defensive line can play up to that level as well. But the depth on this team continues to be tested, and now without LB Jack Campbell and S Kerby Joseph, getting by in the secondary will just have to do.

Green Bay Packers: The worst rushing offense in football

I'm not joking when I say the Packers' rushing offense is one of the worst units in football this year. Through nine games, the only three teams worse than Green Bay on the ground based on rushing success rate are the Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns (per TruMedia). If we use EPA per rush, the Packers are dead last. 

Now there are multiple symptoms for this, and they're all bad. The offensive line can't get enough push to run the gap scheme runs the Packers want to get into (29th in yards before contact per carry), and the Packers' RBs have also given the team next to nothing when it comes to making people miss. As a team, the Packers are 30th in yards after contact per carry and 27th in percentage of tackles avoided. 

The offensive line has been unsettled since losing RT Zach Bako-Bewele to injury, and because they haven't had a chance to find their best five, the run game has been awful. Combine that with the running back room not having any form of juice, and you get needing WR Savion Williams to be your best threat running the football.

With QB Jordan Love and the defense playing as well as they are right now, it should be easy to call the Packers a Super Bowl team. But if they don't make it there, it'll be because they can't run the football and make it easier on themselves.

Minnesota Vikings: Everything about the offense

Since 2000, there have been 379 teams with winning records through nine games. The 2026 Minnesota Vikings rank 379th in offensive success rate.

We could end this right there, but let's dig into why every time the Vikings offense takes the field, it feels like a win for the other team. First of all, the accuracy of any QB under center has been erratic. This season, among QBs with at least 50 dropbacks, both Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz are in the top 10 in off-target rate per TruMedia. The Minnesota offense doesn't have a lot of built-in easy buttons for throwing the football; much of it is about attacking vertically and pushing the ball to hunt explosives. So when these plays are missing, you dig yourself into a lot of second/third and longs. 

You can offset this by using your run game, always staying ahead of the sticks and freeing your QB to take downfield shots because you know you can get 4-5 yards on the ground. Well, the Vikings sit at 29th in rushing success rate and average the second-lowest yards after contact per carry in the NFL. So if you're not accurate and you can't run the ball either, you get an easy recipe for one of the worst offenses the NFL has ever seen (no exaggeration!)

The Vikings traded for QB Kirk Cousins on Tuesday, and while I think he'll definitely help by throwing fewer inaccurate passes, I do wonder if he is enough to get this team over the hump. Cousins isn't a spring chicken and has already thrown a lot of passes this season, so his arm might just be shot at this point. If the Vikings can't get a run game going, Cousins might not matter at all.

New England Patriots: Lack of depth at receiver

It's unfortunate that WRs AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs went down with multiple injuries this season, because if any team has needed both of them, it's the New England Patriots. After seemingly finding their groove, the music fell to a screeching halt against Green Bay. Drake Maye had another game of multiple interceptions, and the Patriots lost by 30 points. 

Their receiver group has been subpar to this point in the season, leaning on Mack Hollins and Pop Douglas once again. Because there are no easy buttons in this offense, it's all on Maye to keep the offense afloat, and that hasn't gone well this season. They were never going to be in the receiver market this trade deadline, but I wouldn't be surprised if they made a move in free agency, just to give Maye some more help.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Lack of separation in the offense

I'm sometimes confused by the Steelers' offense. They're at their best when they play through the offensive line, RBs Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle, and the mammoths they have at tight end. But then they try to spread teams out and shred them that way. This doesn't work because the Steelers lack separation on offense, especially at receiver. WR DK Metcalf has been wildly inconsistent this season, mixing in explosive receptions and great blocking with the most baffling drops you've ever seen. WR Michael Pittman Jr. has been on IR since October, and even when he comes back, you don't expect him to be a separator in the offense. 

Nobody in the Steelers' receiving room is a big enough threat against man coverage to be a problem, and it shrinks the Rolodex of options the offense can get to in third down or obvious passing situations. Swinging and missing on a receiver at the deadline is brutal, and if they don't win a Super Bowl this year, the skill position group will be why.