Fantasy Football Week 17 lineup decisions: Starts, Sits, Sleepers and Busts to know for every game

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.

It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Justin Jefferson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.  

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Corralled an 11.4% target share in Dak Prescott's highest-grossing yardage game of the season. Schultz had his third game with seven or fewer PPR points in his past four. 
• FILM: Schultz simply isn't a baked-in part of the Cowboys gameplan from week to week anymore. In the case of Week 16, it felt like Schultz wasn't getting open fast enough for Prescott, who either needed a short-area option quickly when the Eagles brought pressure, or looked further downfield when he had time to throw. In contrast, Schultz was left wide open a ton against the Texans in Week 14 and Prescott found him 10 times for a 6-87-0 stat line. 
• RED ZONE: In Dallas' past five, Schultz has the second-highest target share when they're inside the 20 (23%), but the lowest catch rate (42.9%) despite five end-zone targets. Michael Gallup actually has him (and even CeeDee Lamb) bested across the board in red-zone stats. In that span, the Cowboys rank 11th in run rate in the red zone. 
• TITANS: Only four tight ends this season have notched 10 or more full-PPR points against them. Also, only Evan Engram has scored on Tennessee since Week 5 (he scored twice). Tennessee's defense will allow short completions to tight ends (see the past few weeks for examples), but typically offenses have attacked further downfield.
• TITANS: May rest several starters in preparation for their Week 18 matchup at Jacksonville. Tennessee's playoff hopes won't be altered even if they lose this game. 
• Schultz is long overdue for a touchdown, but a short-week game the Cowboys should be able to win without throwing the ball a ton puts a massive cap on his upside. He may struggle to land even 10 PPR points, and it could be much worse in non-PPR. I'd rather start Dawson Knox, David Njoku and Noah Fant.
  

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Reprised his role as the Cardinals main slot receiver and wound up being Trace McSorley's most trusted target, catching 10 of 11 targets for 98 yards. He also ran for 25 yards on three trots. Thanks to some downfield receptions, Week 16 was Dortch's best or second-best on the season in yardage and several efficiency metrics including yards per route run (2.65) and explosive play rate (21.4%). 
• LAST WEEK: Dortch's role did change a little in the second half -- nearly all of his routes were shorter (2.33 ADOT) than in the first half (8.60 ADOT).
• FILM: Dortch has always been quick, but he had some designed screens and carries to go with deeper routes. He was particularly effective against the Bucs' zone-heavy pass coverage, suggesting he is improving his technique. 
• QUOTABLE: Coach Kliff Kingsbury said the day after the game that an effort was made to give Dortch a chance to contribute offensively and that he did well. "We've just got to build off that," Kingsbury said. 
• FALCONS: After dabbling in a little more man coverage over their first five games, they've leaned into zone tendencies. How much? They've played the fifth-most in the league (78.2%) since Week 6. They've consistently had trouble keeping slot receivers contained, giving up 12.9 yards per catch to them on the season and a ridiculous 17.4 yards per grab against them in their past four games. 
• McCOY: Returning QB Colt McCoy will do a better job of connecting with the Cardinals other receivers than Trace McSorley did in Week 16. That'll ding Dortch's upside considerably, though it should be mentioned that Dortch had over 100 yards receiving from McCoy against the Niners five games ago (Dortch was benched after that game). 

Dave's Notebook:

• ALLGEIER: Has topped 100 total yards in each of his past two games. Patterson hasn't been over 100 total yards since Week 3. 
• ALLGEIER: Has had as many or more carries than Cordarrelle Patterson in 4 of their past 6 games, especially in their past two where he out-carried Patterson 35-22. He's been worlds better in terms of efficiency in the last two weeks too, averaging 6.1 yards per rush compared to 3.1 and thoroughly besting Patterson in every other metric including runs versus 8-in-the-box and avoided tackle rate. 
• GOAL LINE: Allgeier had three shots at scoring last week on the Ravens from a yard out and whiffed on them all, including tripping on the grass when he had an open lane to the end zone. Hopefully that doesn't cost him more chances near the end zone -- Patterson has played more snaps inside the 10 than Allgeier not just in the past two weeks but in their past six games as well. 
• FALCONS: Have a good offensive line that battled and won their fair share of plays against a really good Ravens defense last week. Their trench matchup should be much easier this week. 
• CARDINALS: Have become one of the best Fantasy matchups for running backs, giving up at least 17 PPR points to a RB in nine of their past 10 games. Even in non-PPR, FOUR RBs have posted at least 10 points in their past two. 
• The matchup is irresistible, and even though it's a certainty Cordarrelle Patterson will take work away, the Falcons have seemingly committed to Allgeier over the past few weeks and don't have a good reason to go away from him. He's expected to see the most work in a great matchup, which puts him in line to be a low-end No. 2 Fantasy RB. Patterson is at best a non-PPR touchdown-dependent flex.

Dave's Notebook:

• PAST TWO WEEKS: Has a gargantuan 35.1% target share with Desmond Ridder, catching 14 of 20 targets for 166 yards. His receiving average, yards per route run and explosive play rate are up compared to how he was faring with Mariota. London's role in the offense has not changed, either -- he's still lining up wide over 80% of his snaps and has a very similar ADOT (around 10.2 yards) and route depth (around 9.2 yards). 
• LONDON: Target share has been so robust that he's had at least seven catches and at least 70 yards in each of his past three games; he would have notched at least 14 PPR points in each if not for a Week 15 fumble (he's actually fumbled in two straight). 
• CARDINALS: In their past three games (against the Bucs, Broncos and Patriots) have allowed a league-worst 81.1% catch rate to WRs who have lined up wide. They've held them to 10.1 yards per catch, which is very good, but they've also somehow given up 4.9 YAC/reception with a league-high seven missed tackles. 
• CARDINALS: On throws to outside WRs of 15 or fewer Air Yards, the Cardinals' catch rate allowed blossomed to 87.1% with 5.4 YAC/reception. All seven of their missed tackles came on those shorter throws. 

Dave's Notebook:

• WEEK 10: The Lions moved the ball well and scored 31 points, but Goff had a pretty pedestrian day (19/26, 236 yards, one touchdown, 14 rush yards). Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift each had a touchdown carry from inside the 10-yard line while Goff threw one pass from there (a touchdown). 
• GOFF: Since getting D.J. Chark back on a full slate of snaps five games ago, Goff has been top-five in pass attempts per game (39.4), total passing yards (1,517) and passing touchdowns (11). He's doing this without throwing downfield much -- only 25 of his throws have gone beyond 15 Air Yards, though he's completed 56% of them for 448 yards, which is excellent. Best of all, Goff has thrown zero interceptions and has multiple touchdowns in four of those five. 
• BEARS: In their past four games, Chicago has allowed 12.8 yards per catch and 6.1 YAC/reception, both ranking in the bottom-four in that span. They've also seen the second-highest passing ADOT against at 10.3 yards, only behind the Lions. To Chicago's credit, they've been about league average in completions of 20-plus yards allowed and missed tackles, and they're better than league average in catch rate allowed. 

Dave's Notebook:

• PAST FOUR: Has notched at least 14 PPR points three times, all without a large amount of targets. It's helped that he's secured a pass on 80% of his targets for an average of 19.9 yards per catch on a 13.4 ADOT. 
• CHARK: Has re-established himself as an outside receiver for the Lions, lining up wide on 78.3% of his snaps in the past four weeks. 
• BEARS: Have seen the second-highest passing ADOT against them at 10.3 yards, but that number is a very high 13.2 yards specifically against outside wide receivers in their past four games. In those games, outside receivers have averaged 16.2 yards per catch and 5.34 YAC/reception with three touchdowns.

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Saw four second-half targets (and zero first-half targets) in unfavorable conditions against a very good Jets secondary. Jones even played nearly 40% of his snaps in the slot, but it didn't help.
• JONES: Had at least seven targets in each of the five games prior with six or more grabs in four of them. He had been a huge part of the offense, mostly as a short- and mid-range receiver. 
• WEEK 5: Jones saw eight targets against the Texans, but caught three passes for 12 yards. The Jaguars' best pass-catcher that day was Marvin Jones with a 7-104-0 stat line. Trevor Lawrence attempted 47 passes on what was an ugly game for the Jags. 
• TEXANS: Have somehow allowed just one touchdown to a wide receiver in their past six games, and just six total on the season. Four wideouts have topped 100 yards against them, and another six have between 80 and 99. How is this possible? The Texans have seen the third-fewest pass attempts against them this year (30.5 per game), and wide receivers have seen the fewest targets per game (15.8). 
• ETIENNE: In eight games since the James Robinson trade, Travis Etienne has had four games with over 100 total yards and four without. In the four without, Jones has had at least 14 PPR points three times; in the four big Etienne weeks, Jones had one with three touchdowns in a shootout against Dallas and three with nine or fewer PPR points, including last week. The Texans statistically have the worst run defense in the league, suggesting a good week ahead for Etienne. And if Etienne rests, then there's a possibility the whole starting offense could rest for the Jags. 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Turned nine targets into an underwhelming 4-34-1 stat line. Cooks did have a 33-yard touchdown called back by a holding penalty, which is sad not only because of the stats wiped out but because it was probably Cooks' best target from Davis Mills. Four of the nine targets were uncatchable and two targets required a major adjustment from Cooks, including the TD that did count. 
• COOKS: Remains a priority in the Texans passing game but not a downfield one. Cooks saw two official targets last week that traveled farther than 15 Air Yards, and both went 17. Only the nullified touchdown went farther. 
• WEEK 5: Cooks only saw six targets from Mills against the Jaguars (4-20-0). The Texans ran the ball a lot en route to a victory, so there weren't a lot of throws to go around. 
• JAGUARS: In their past five have held outside receivers to a 53.8% catch rate (second-best in football) and 11.0 yards per catch (sixth-best). Their catch rate allowed is notably higher on throws inside of 15 Air Yards (68.6%), but that's still better than league average. The only catch: three receivers have scored on the Jaguars in the red zone while lined up wide in those past five. 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Murray was a victim of game script when Russell Wilson helped the Rams build a 17-0 lead in the first quarter, then the Rams were up 31-6 at halftime. He looked solid on the limited touches he did have, but just didn't have much of a chance to do anything. 
• PAST FIVE: Since becoming the Broncos lead running back, Murray has three games with 14-plus touches, all of which were competitive games. In two blowout losses, Murray had 11 or fewer touches and less than 50 yards. Those losses were last week to the Rams, and Week 14 versus Kansas City. 
• CHIEFS: Are getting hot defensively, holding all running backs out of the end zone in five straight games with 4.0 yards per rush allowed. Kenneth Walker needed 26 carries to get over 100 rush yards last week, and Samaje Perine had 106 yards on the ground thanks to 21 carries in Week 13. It's unlikely for Murray to see that kind of workload. 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Mostert started and even had 31 yards on his first two carries but wound up rotating series with Wilson. Mostert was the more efficient back of the two.  
• INSIDE THE 10: Wilson played on all three of the Dolphins snaps near the goal line last week, and that includes two plays on a drive that Mostert started. That's continued a trend of Wilson hoarding those snaps -- in their five games together with the Dolphins, Wilson has played nine snaps inside the 10 to Mostert's one. 
• DOLPHINS: Rank fifth in lowest run-play rate this season (37.8% of all offensive plays). Without Tagovailoa on the field they've still run the ball at a 40% clip, which is lower than league average. 
• PATRIOTS: Three rival running backs have found at least 15 PPR points in their past four (Joe Mixon, James Conner, James Cook). Each had over 100 total yards, as did Josh Jacobs who scored 12 PPR points against the Pats. Their run defense isn't quite as tough as it was earlier this year. 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Moss played 70% of the snaps for the Colts, totaling 70 yards on 12 carries and a catch. Moss had seven carries for five-plus yards and zero carries for negative yards. It's probably enough to keep him going as the Colts' main running back. 
• GIANTS: Over their past five games the G-men have allowed 5.3 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns to running backs. They've been better against pass-catching RBs, holding them to 5.6 yards per catch. A rusher has had 10-plus PPR points in 10 straight games with five hitting the 15-point mark. 
• BETWEEN THE TACKLES: On the season, the Giants have yielded 5.5 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns on those between-tackle runs including 5.45 yards per carry and four scores when they stack the box. Of Moss' 36 carries in his past two games, 28 have been between the tackles, bullying the Vikings and Chargers for 4.4 yards per carry on those runs and 5.0 yards per carry against eight-in-the-box.

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Disaster. Pittman still had a 24% target share but Nick Foles' accuracy was awful. Shoot, Foles didn't even throw a pass Pittman's way until the second quarter. Twenty-five of Pittman's 39 yards came on the final drive in garbage time. 
• PITTMAN: Has been used almost exclusively as a short- and intermediate-area target all season, but last week his ADOT was 10.57, the highest it's been all season. That's probably because he saw a deep ball target 30 yards downfield (it was overthrown), which is rare for him. For the season, Pittman has nine red-zone targets and five end-zone targets.
• GIANTS: In their past five games, outside receivers like Pittman have caught 79.2% of their targets on throws inside of 15 Air Yards. That's seventh-worst in the league. New York has also missed six tackles on those targets (third-most), contributing to their 4.29 YAC/reception allowed (sixth-worst). 

Dave's Notebook:

• CHUBB BEFORE DESHAUN WATSON: Averaged 5.2 yards per carry, had a rush of five-plus yards on 39.5% of his carries and a rush of 12-plus yards on 13% of his carries with an avoided tackle rate of 37.5%. He scored 12 touchdowns thanks to a 63% run-play rate when the Browns were inside the 10. 
• CHUBB WITH DESHAUN WATSON SO FAR: Averaged 4.0 yards per carry, had a rush of five-plus yards on 31.6% of his carries and a rush of 12-plus yards on 6.6% of his carries with an avoided tackle rate of 15.8%. He scored zero touchdowns thanks to a 29% run-play rate when the Browns were inside the 10. 
• CHUBB: Has produced 10 non-PPR/11 PPR or fewer points in each of his past four -- all with Watson.
• COMMANDERS: Are among the best run defenses in the league and got stronger last week with Chase Young coming back to the defensive line. The squad has allowed just seven rushing touchdowns this season, and only twice all year has a running back had 100-plus total yards. 49ers running backs totaled 88 yards against the Commanders last week. 

Dave's Notebook:

• COOPER BEFORE DESHAUN WATSON: Earned a 26.5% target share, caught 61.3% of his passes, scored seven times, had nine end-zone targets, averaged 13.9 yards per catch with 2.11 yards per route run and a 12.4 ADOT. 
• COOPER WITH DESHAUN WATSON SO FAR: Earned an even higher target share -- 28.3% -- but has caught 50% of his passes, scored zero times despite six end-zone targets, and averaged 13.3 yards per catch with 1.70 yards per route run and a 9.9 ADOT. 
• COOPER: The Browns are definitely throwing more, and Cooper's had plenty of chances to come up big, but hasn't. His 13 PPR points in Week 16 are the highest he's had with Watson (and it should have been closer to 20 Fantasy points if not for a dropped touchdown). 
• COMMANDERS: Have given up a high 75% catch rate to outside receivers in their past four games, but have otherwise been sensational. In those four games, Washington ranks in the top-five in yards per catch allowed (10.5) and touchdowns allowed (one, Isaiah Hodgins). Being fair, the Commanders haven't exactly played a gauntlet of scorching-hot passing offenses, but the Browns don't classify as such anyway.

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Had a great game until the Commanders benched Taylor Heinicke in the early fourth quarter and put Carson Wentz in. McLaurin saw 1 of 12 targets from Wentz as the veteran focused on shorter throws in a futile come-from-behind effort. 
• WEEKS 1 THROUGH 6: Wentz threw at least 38 passes in 5 of 6 starts, but McLaurin had 10-plus non-PPR points twice and 15-plus PPR points once. Curtis Samuel scored more Fantasy points and Jahan Dotson scored more touchdowns. These were also games where the Commanders didn't run the ball much and Samuel was a short-area target to make up for the lack of runs. 
• BROWNS: Are brutally bad against the run and better against the pass. Only Chris Godwin (on 13 targets) and Ja'Marr Chase (on 15 targets) topped 70 yards against Cleveland in its past 10 games. But in those 10 games, 10 receiver touchdowns were recorded into the stat books (and eight to outside receivers like McLaurin).
• BROWNS: In their past five games they've allowed a much higher catch rate to receivers on throws inside of 15 Air Yards (68.3%, about league average) compared to throws of 16-plus Air Yards (30.4%, fourth-best). A lot of that has to do with teams not needing to throw deep against the Browns because they've been in close games. They've also played three bad quarterbacks, Tom Brady (3 of 10 on deep throws) and Joe Burrow, who only tried two long throws (and completed both). 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Carolina's run game pulverized a Lions run defense that had been playing exceptionally well for weeks. There were a number of runs where the Lions were out of position after the stacking the box, leading to huge gains, and there were also a number of broken tackles for Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Week 16 further underscores that game script is a massive factor in predicting how both backs will do.
• FOREMAN: Has at least 21 carries in each of the Panthers past four wins with over 110 rush yards in three of them. He's had 11 carries or less in three of their past four losses with the outlier a Week 8 close game against the Falcons where Foreman secured a 26-118-3 stat line. When the Panthers are down by more than two scores, Foreman doesn't get much work. 
• BUCCANEERS: Have played 31 defensive snaps all season when they've led by more than two scores, the last time being in Week 15 against the Bengals, which was a lead they blew. Week 10 against Seattle was the last time before then. Point is, the Bucs don't get ahead of many teams, so expect at least a competitive game script. 
• BUCCANEERS: On the season have allowed just six rushing touchdowns and four 100-total-yard games to running backs. You might be interested to know that Foreman had the first 100-yard rushing game against Tampa; the other three with over 100 total yards have come since Week 12 (Nick Chubb on 26 carries, Christian McCaffrey on 16 touches, James Conner on 22 touches).
• VITA VEA: The big games allowed to McCaffrey and Conner were with enormous defensive tackle Vita Vea barely playing or not playing. The Bucs' run defense splits really aren't that different with or without Vea -- around 4.4 yards per carry with or without him -- but they have allowed twice as many carries of 10-plus yards without Vea on the field than with Vea. You should also know that Vea did play in Week 7 against the Panthers. 

Dave's Notebook:

• PANTHERS: Enter the game with C.J. Henderson and Keith Taylor as their starting outside cornerbacks with newly dusted-off 35-year-old veteran Josh Norman in reserve. Both Henderson and Taylor have been graded poorly by Pro Football Focus this season and each have allowed a catch rate of 69.6% or worse on the year with plenty of yards after catch given up. Since losing CB Donte Jackson in Week 10, the Panthers have given up at least 13 PPR points to one receiver in every game.
• EVANS: Has at least eight targets in each of his past three games. His production on those targets has stunk -- 13 or fewer PPR points in each game -- but at least he's still a significant part of the game plan.
• WEEK 7: Evans had a good game (9-95-0) on a whopping 15 targets. But it should have been higher because of this: 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: With the benefit of poor weather and a tremendous matchup against the Browns, Kamara totaled 110 yards on 22 touches (two receptions). It was his second straight game with at least 100 total yards, but his first with a touchdown since Week 8 and his second with a touchdown in 2022.
• KAMARA: Has seen his targets dip from 6.5 targets per game in his first 10 to 3.0 in his past three. The dip has coincided with Kamara not working nearly as many third downs as earlier in the year -- 21 of 40, to be exact. Mark Ingram and then David Johnson began siphoning those snaps from him, cutting into his receiving upside.
• TAYSOM HILL: Continues to be a problem. Not only did he run for a touchdown last week from inside the 10-yard line, but he caught a 30-yard pass on a busted play two games ago. In fact, Hill has "stolen" six total touchdowns (five rushing) from Kamara from 11 yards or closer to the end zone.
• KAMARA: Missed two days of practice this week with a quad injury and a personal issue. That's not particularly encouraging. 
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• EAGLES: In their past four games have held rival RBs to 3.3 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns. These aren't cupcake opponents they held back, either -- it's been the likes of Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery and both Cowboys backs last week. Their return to form has coincided with rookie DT Jordan Davis' return along with the recent involvement of veteran linemen like Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph.

Dave's Notebook:

• WHITE: Was crushed by the Bills in Week 14 but threw for 369 yards and should have had over 20 Fantasy points against the Vikings in Week 13 if not for a dropped touchdown on a short throw to Braxton Berrios. In Week 12, White annihilated the Bears for 315 yards and three scores. 
• WHITE: In his three starts, the Jets have a pass-play rate of 64%. In every other game without White, the Jets threw the ball 60.7% of the time. His return gives their pass game a lift, especially in the short area since he's been prone to throwing to his running backs. He's also been off-target on just 10.1% of his throws, a number that would rank 20th among his peers if he had enough attempts to qualify. 
• SEAHAWKS: Have struggled against quarterbacks over their past seven games, allowing five to get 20-plus Fantasy points against them. The two who didn't? Sam Darnold, who threw just 24 passes, and the Rams duo of John Wolford and Bryce Perkins. Derek Carr, Tom Brady and Brock Purdy have all hit the 20-point mark lately against Seattle. 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Got more involved in the offense with Purdy, turning seven targets into a 5-81-0 stat line. Most of the damage came on an out route where he sped past his coverage for a 54-yard gain. 
• BROCK PURDY'S PAST FOUR STARTS: Aiyuk has been completely out of the game plan in the red zone, failing to receive even one target. And while he scored against the Bucs on a sluggo route in Week 14, it wasn't on an end-zone target -- he's had zero of those too. 
• PURDY: Has attempted 26 or fewer passes in each of his past three games. When the Niners don't need to throw, Purdy rarely does. 
• RAIDERS: Have not allowed a single 100-yard receiver yet; only six have 80-plus yards. However, 12 touchdowns have gone to wide receivers this year including four in their past five games. Also, the Raiders rank fifth-worst in completions of 20-plus yards allowed over their past five with 10 (two for touchdowns). 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Didn't have to throw too much in a 20-3 blowout over the Colts. His 31 attempts were his second-lowest on the season. His interception bounced off of Keenan Allen's hands and isn't because of anything Herbert did. His 7.86 ADOT was somehow his fifth-highest on the year. 
• HERBERT: Has been notably worse when pressured than not this season. His QB rating when pressured is 70.7 compared to 101.2 when he's not. He's thrown five touchdowns and six interceptions when pressured, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions when he's not. 
• RAMS: Even without Aaron Donald have stepped up in the pass rush department over their past four games, registering a huge 39.2% rate. The only game they didn't ratchet up the pressure was against the Packers in Week 15, partially because Aaron Rodgers got the ball out quick. L.A. has at least one interception in every game they've played without Donald so far.  
• RAMS: Have held each of their past three opposing passers to 19 or fewer Fantasy points, though that list isn't very impressive (Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson). 
• FAMILIARITY: Chargers coach Brandon Staley ran the Rams defense in 2020 and knows their system fairly well. It might be the saving grace for Herbert. 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Saw five targets (caught one pass) in a game where Kirk Cousins attempted 48 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns. If that doesn't scream "minimal role," then I don't know what does. 
• SINCE HOCKENSON ARRIVED IN WEEK 9: Thielen is third on the Vikings in target share (15.2%), catches (32) and yards (341). He's scored three times. He has just three end-zone targets and isn't doing much after the catch (2.66 YAC/reception). The only times he's topped 10 PPR points with Hockenson around has been when he's scored a touchdown. 
• PACKERS: They've been pretty obvious in their last six games -- they've done well against bad passing offenses (no touchdowns allowed to the Rams, Bears and Titans recently) but struggled against strong passing offenses (271 yards and a touchdown to the Dolphins, 131 yards and two touchdowns to the Eagles, 197 yards and two touchdowns to the Cowboys). 
• PACKERS: Over their past six they've allowed a 70.1% catch rate and a league-worst 15.9 yards per catch specifically to outside receivers. The Dolphins are a big reason for that -- before Week 16 the Packers gave up a 68.4% catch rate and 13.4 yards per catch. 
• PACKERS: Rank bottom-eight on the season in catch rate (72.6%) and touchdowns (seven) allowed to tight ends. That makes the matchup better for Hockenson, hurting Thielen's chances of being heavily involved. 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Came through in Fantasy thanks to a short-yardage touchdown, but he out-snapped and out-touched Aaron Jones for the second time in three games. Both backs rotated throughout the game but Dillon played 13 of 18 third/fourth-down snaps and 9 of 12 snaps inside the 10.
• DILLON: Has been more efficient as a runner than Jones over their past four games together, averaging 4.8 yards per carry to Jones' 4.2 with fewer runs of zero/negative yards and five touchdowns to Jones' two (both receiving). Dillon hasn't been quite as efficient as a receiver as Jones, but they're close.
• HISTORY: Dillon has scored at least once in each of his past two against the Vikings including a two-score game at Lambeau last January. Dillon scored and actually totaled 91 yards in their Week 1 meeting and cashed in twice in Lambeau in January. Jones totaled 106 yards in that matchup.
• VIKINGS: In their past four have allowed 4.1 yards per carry and only two rushing scores to a RB. That's not too bad until you realize they yielded over 100 total yards to Zonovan Knight, gave up a rushing touchdown to Justin Jackson, kept the heat on the Colts run game when Indy played to a run-heavy game script without Jonathan Taylor, then got smashed for over 130 total yards and a score to Saquon Barkley last week.

Dave's Notebook:

• ANDREWS: Since coming back from shoulder and knee injuries in Week 11, Andrews has played six games and has been over 10 PPR points once. It just so happens the one game he was over 10 PPR points came with Lamar Jackson under center. 
• WITHOUT LAMAR: In the past four games Jackson has either missed or barely played in, Andrews has led all Ravens in routes run but has caught just 12 passes over 25 targets from Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown. Last week Huntley completely missed Andrews on a screen pass, but then impressed on a 36-yard completion on a go route. It was probably Huntley's best throw to Andrews this season. 
• WITHOUT LAMAR: The Ravens are calling pass plays 44.8% of the time and averaging 24.3 passes per game in the last four weeks. The volume is even lower than where it is when Jackson plays. 
• STEELERS: Only four tight ends have scored at least 10 PPR points against them this season. Only three tight ends have scored on them this season. This is as tough as matchups get for tight ends. 
• HISTORY: Andrews has never scored on the Steelers in seven tries. He's been over 10 PPR points once. 

Dave's Notebook:

• LAST WEEK: Had a minimal amount of targets as usual (six) but caught three of them for 45 yards and a 19-yard score. Davis technically had two end-zone targets last week, though one was thrown at a Bears defender's butt in an attempt to draw a pass interference call in the end zone. 
• DAVIS: Has had at least one red-zone target in each of his past four games, and has seen at least six targets in three of his past four. He's also seen a steady diet of deeper targets in those four games -- at least one per outing and eight total in four weeks. That could be a role the Bills are gravitating back toward. 
• BENGALS: Have allowed 13 completions of 20-plus yards to outside receivers in their past five games, nine of which came on passes that traveled 16-plus Air Yards. Both of those marks rank bottom-eight in the league and make sense given the injuries the Cincy secondary has taken on. 
• BENGALS: Wideouts have totaled 606 yards and five touchdowns in their past three games. This is against the Browns, Buccaneers and Patriots -- three very pedestrian passing games. 
• ODDS: The total is at 49.5, the second-highest mark of the week. The oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game.