Year after year, it only becomes clearer: The NFL is an offensive league. In recent seasons, nothing has been more determinative in team success in a given season than how well your offense held up over the course of that year.
Who is your quarterback? Who is up front protecting him? Who is he throwing the ball to? Who is next to (or behind) him in the backfield? Who is in charge of scheming those players open, and putting them in position to succeed? Are there injury and/or depth issues at any or all of those positions? All the pieces matter. The degree to which they matter varies greatly, of course, but each plays a role in allowing an offense to hum at peak efficiency.
With all that in mind, we welcome you to our fourth annual offensive infrastructure rankings. A few important notes before we begin:
- We used a weighted grading system where each team was given a 1-5 ranking (1 = terrible, 3 = average, 5 = elite) in the following areas: Quarterback, Play-Caller (head coach and/or offensive coordinator), Offensive Line, Pass-Catchers (WR/TE), and Running Backs.
- Those scores were then weighted so that the quarterback was the most important component of the offense, followed by play-caller, offensive line, and pass-catchers, and then finally running backs, so that the weights reflected as closely as possible the reality of the way modern NFL offenses work.
- In the event that teams ended up with the same weighted score, the first tiebreaker was the quarterback ranking. The second tiebreaker was the non-quarterback score.
- These are not necessarily rankings of how we expect these offenses to perform during the 2023 season. They're an attempt to capture which offenses are best positioned for success based on the quality of their quarterback and the talent with which the organization has chosen to surround him. There is, of course, the possibility that players elevate their games (as Geno Smith did in 2022) or transcend their supporting cast (as Russell Wilson did almost every year before last season), or that a quarterback's subpar performance undermines an otherwise fairly strong offensive unit (like Zach Wilson over the past two seasons).
- The tiers are more rigid than the order within them, and teams within the same tier should be considered of roughly similar quality, as exemplified by their weighted grades. It would take more convincing to move a team up or down a tier than it would to move it ahead of or behind a team in the same tier.
- Just as I did the past three years, I compiled an initial draft of these rankings, which I then ran by the rest of the writers, editors, and podcasters on the CBSSports.com NFL staff. I incorporated their feedback to create the version of the rankings you'll see below. The commentary in each section is mine.
Got all that? OK, great. Here we go...
Tier 6: The Cardinals (32)
Team | QB | PC | OL | WR/TE | RB | Total | Weighted | Non-QB |
32. Cardinals | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | 10.5 | 1.83 | 2.25 |
We're assuming here that Kyler Murray, who tore his ACL in December, is out for the significant majority of the season. The Cardinals' pass-catcher ranking still includes DeAndre Hopkins, and would drop quite a bit if he's traded. There's a lot of work to be done on this roster.
Tier 5: 31-27
Team | QB | PC | OL | WR/TE | RB | Total | Weighted | Non-QB |
31. Titans | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 13 | 2.47 | 2.20 |
30. Texans | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 2.67 | 3.00 |
29. Buccaneers | 2 | 2 | 3.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 14 | 2.73 | 3.10 |
28. Steelers | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 14 | 2.73 | 2.85 |
27. Colts | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 15.5 | 2.77 | 3.15 |
Tennessee's offensive depth chart is really rough. Ryan Tannehill is still there to make sure Will Levis doesn't have to take that many hits behind an awful offensive line (drafting Peter Skoronski was a good start but there is still a lot of work to be done) and Derrick Henry will get the ball as many times as he can handle it, but this is a group pretty clearly in need of a dramatic re-imaging.
Houston has begun building things up around C.J. Stroud, but only the offensive line has above-average overall talent right now. We'll see if Bobby Slowik can scheme up success beyond the talent level like his old boss Kyle Shanahan. Tampa's offensive depth chart is in free fall. The offensive line has taken a couple steps back these past two years, and not adding another back alongside Rachaad White (who looks like he has juice but was wildly ineffective last season) was probably a mistake. Oh, and now Baker Mayfield is under center.
The Steelers are inching closer to having a pretty decent offense, and could make this ranking look silly if Kenny Pickett takes a significant step forward. More likely, though, they will be held back by offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The Colts have allowed their offensive line to atrophy and have yet to add a true difference-making pass-catcher. (Michael Pittman seems like he might be more of a good No. 2 wideout than a No. 1 guy.) But they have Shane Steichen to build their offense around Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, and that's a start.
Tier 4: 26-19
Team | QB | PC | OL | WR/TE | RB | Total | Weighted | Non-QB |
26. Bears | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 2.93 | 3.15 |
T-24. Packers | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | 3 | 4 | 16.5 | 3.03 | 3.55 |
T-24. Commanders | 2 | 4.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 15.5 | 3.03 | 3.55 |
23. Panthers | 2.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 16 | 3.07 | 3.35 |
22. Patriots | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 4 | 16.5 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
21. Saints | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | 3 | 15.5 | 3.10 | 3.15 |
20. Falcons | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 3.13 | 3.70 |
19. Rams | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 15.5 | 3.17 | 3.25 |
Justin Fields is one of the NFL's most exciting playmakers, but he needs to be more consistent as a passer to earn a better ranking here. Hopefully, the upgraded offensive line and skill-position corps, along with the creativity Luke Getsy showed last year, will help him do just that. We have to see it before we rank it, though.
The Packers and Commanders ended up exactly tied in our weighted rankings, as well as in their quarterback and non-quarterback rankings. That's one of two exact ties we had. Without more information on either Jordan Love or Sam Howell, we couldn't bump either of the QB grades up any higher. Washington benefitted from the addition of Eric Bieniemy, while we knocked Green Bay's offensive line ranking down a bit due to injury uncertainty surrounding David Bakhtiari, who missed five games last season after returning from his ACL tear.
Carolina did a pretty good job of upgrading some of the things around No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, but the group of pass-catchers the Panthers assembled is more "vaguely competent" than "actually good." The offensive line is improving, but could still use upgrades on the interior. New England, meanwhile, has a very strong offensive line but not nearly enough high-level pass-catchers and there are a bunch of questions about the whole Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe situation.
The Saints are basically competent in every area. Nothing more, nothing less. If we had more confidence in Desmond Ridder, the Falcons would rank considerably higher on this list. Arthur Smith, a strong offensive line, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier... there's a lot to work with. But Ridder fell to the middle of the third round for a reason; he's unlikely to be The Answer under center. The Rams' offensive line was a disaster last season, and will be counting on a rookie at one guard spot and a second-year player who sat out all of last season with an injury at the other.
Tier 3: 18-11
Team | QB | PC | OL | WR/TE | RB | Total | Weighted | Non-QB |
18. Raiders | 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 3.27 | 3.40 |
17. Jets | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 16 | 3.27 | 2.90 |
16. Browns | 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 3.47 | 3.70 |
15. Giants | 3 | 5 | 3.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 19 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
14. Broncos | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3.5 | 18.5 | 3.63 | 3.95 |
13. Vikings | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 5 | 2.5 | 17.5 | 3.63 | 3.70 |
12. Seahawks | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 19 | 3.67 | 3.75 |
11. Dolphins | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 3.67 | 3.75 |
Do you remember how many games Jimmy Garoppolo actually started in New England? TWO. And he left one of them early with an injury. We've basically never seen him outside of the Kyle Shanahan cocoon. We'll stick with an average rating for him here until we see how it looks with Josh McDaniels. Josh Jacobs had an All-Pro season, but that year was also far beyond anything he had done before. And the Jakobi Meyers acquisition is offset by the Darren Waller trade. Michael Mayer could become a star in time, but rookie tight ends rarely contribute at a high level.
We're giving Aaron Rodgers the benefit of the doubt that last year wasn't just what he is now, but Nathaniel Hackett seems more and more like a Rodgers creation so we can't give him too much credit here. New York still has questions along the offensive line and at the skill positions due to injuries and ... questionable decision-making, respectively. Deshaun Watson played horribly upon his return from suspension last season, and while the Browns have a good offensive line and Nick Chubb around to help him out, a lot rests on his shoulders and we just can't expect him to return to the player he was in Houston.
Daniel Jones finally reached competency last year mostly by avoiding mistakes, but we're not double-counting his progress with the grade for Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka. If Jones takes a step forward this year and begins actually driving the team's success, we'll raise his grade. But not before that. Sean Payton lifts up a Broncos supporting cast around Russell Wilson that seemed thinner than expected last season, and the injury uncertainty surrounding Javonte Williams knocks the running back grade down a bit. Still, this whole enterprise depends on Wilson -- at least this season -- and the past two years have not been encouraging on that front.
The Vikings have one of the best groups of pass-catchers in the league with Justin Jefferson supported by Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and K.J. Osborn... but Kirk Cousins is still under center, the offensive line is fine, and we baked in the expected release of Dalvin Cook, which leaves just Alexander Mattison, DeWayne McBride, Kene Nwangwu, and Ty Chandler at running back. Geno Smith's full-season performance was fantastic, but he did slow down toward the end of the season and what he showed on the whole was wildly out of character from what we had seen before. The grade is still above-average, but it won't creep up further until we see more. Between DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, Seattle has a ton to work with at the skill positions. We can say basically the same thing about Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, but Miami has Mike McDaniel to offset a still-somewhat porous offensive line.
Tier 2: 10-4
Team | QB | PC | OL | WR/TE | RB | Total | Weighted | Non-QB |
10. Lions | 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 19.5 | 3.77 | 4.15 |
9. Ravens | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.5 | 3 | 18.5 | 3.83 | 3.75 |
T-7. Cowboys | 4 | 3.5 | 4 | 4 | 3.5 | 19 | 3.87 | 3.80 |
T-7. Jaguars | 4 | 4.5 | 3 | 4 | 3.5 | 19 | 3.87 | 3.80 |
6. 49ers | 3 | 5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 | 21 | 3.93 | 4.40 |
5. Bills | 5 | 3.5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18.5 | 3.97 | 3.45 |
4. Chargers | 4.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 4.07 | 3.85 |
Detroit's offense is ready-made to drop in a quarterback who raises the ceiling rather than holds up the floor. Jared Goff can competently steer the ship with Ben Johnson as the coordinator, a very strong offensive line, and above-average weaponry, but the ceiling if the roof if the Lions can land a quarterback with a higher upside. Maybe that's Hendon Hooker, but he'll be 26 years old by the end of this season and he's coming off a torn ACL. It's probably not him.
I was surprised the Ravens ended up ranking this highly, but Lamar Jackson, Todd Monken (fresh off back-to-back national championships at Georgia), and a good offensive line are nothing to sneeze at. If Monken can maintain the rush efficiency while diversifying and updating the passing concepts, Baltimore's offense could bounce back in a big way.
Dallas and Jacksonville was our second outright tie, with the teams having the exact same overall rating, quarterback rating, and non-quarterback rating. the Cowboys make up for the deficiency in play-caller by having a stronger offensive line than do the Jaguars. That's especially true if they plan to shift Tyler Smith inside to guard, which may not be the best move for his career path but does get the team's five best linemen on the field this year (assuming Tyron Smith can stay healthy). If the Cowboys had added more behind Tony Pollard (who is coming off a broken leg), the running back grade would be higher.
We don't know if or when Brock Purdy will be healthy. We've seen like two real games of Trey Lance. Sam Darnold is Sam Darnold. We defaulted to an average QB grade for San Francisco, but we know this offense is all about the play-caller and the weapons. Kyle Shanahan, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Elijah Mitchell will lift both the floor and the ceiling of San Francisco's offense, and the quarterback can only take it to a higher level. We've seen that in action.
No team gets a bigger boost from its quarterback relative to its supporting cast than the Bills. We saw last year that the group around Josh Allen is perhaps not as good as we thought, with only Stefon Diggs really able to get open consistently and the offensive line struggling for a decent chunk of the season. Adding Dalton Kincaid should help eventually, but maybe not right away.
The Chargers upgrading from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore, getting their offensive linemen and receivers back healthy, adding Quentin Johnston, and seeming like they are going to hang onto Austin Ekeler helps keep them among the top groups in the league. Losing Ekeler would hurt, but with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Rashawn Slater, Corey Linsley, and now Moore, there's a base of talent to operate at a very high level.
Tier 1: 3-1
Team | QB | PC | OL | WR/TE | RB | Total | Weighted | Non-QB |
3. Bengals | 5 | 3.5 | 4 | 5 | 3.5 | 21 | 4.40 | 4.10 |
2. Eagles | 4.5 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 21.5 | 4.43 | 4.40 |
1. Chiefs | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 4.47 | 4.20 |
These are likely the consensus three best offenses in the league, and they wind up incredibly close in our final rankings. The differentiator for the Chiefs is that the combination of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and that offensive line is unmatched leaguewide. They have the NFL's best quarterback, arguably its best play-caller, and one of the best groups up front. We saw last season that they can cycle receivers in and out, and as long as Travis Kelce is there, they can move the ball through the air just fine. The thing keeping the Eagles in front of the Bengals right now is our slightly greater confidence in Nick Sirianni and Brian Johnson than Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan. Both have shown themselves capable of crafting top offenses, but the Eagles (even after losing Steichen to Indianapolis) have shown more versatility and have a better handle on creating small edges wherever available.
