Preseason Fantasy Recap: Assessing the Fantasy value of rookie standouts, and more preseason analysis

USATSI

I was up past midnight watching preseason film. It is so good to be back.

All of the rookies who I have been so excited to see on an NFL field are finally here! We have a glimpse of how NFL teams want to use certain players. We have some team-level data to speculate on as we look forward to changes that may occur from the 2023 to 2024 regular seasons. We have so much to be thankful for on this fine Monday, August 12!

We got a long Dontayvion Wicks touchdown! Jayden Daniels was flinging it deep and ran a red zone touchdown in! Caleb Williams flicked a no-look pass to D'Andre Swift for 40+ yards! J.J. McCarthy looked confident, and Kevin O'Connell let him sling it!

We have a ton to dig into -- good and not-so-good -- from 2024's initial preseason action. I'll quickly cover each team. Before doing so, I wanna make you aware of two things.

1. I'll be updating my NFL Journal 2024 with notes each week, starting in the preseason. Feel free to read it.

2. Friday's FFT Newsletter will be an 'In the Lab' installment. You can fill out this form to let me know who you want to learn more about!

Alright, let's get into the nitty-gritty.

Arizona Cardinals

None of the starters played, and the second-string offensive line struggled. Trey Benson had no running room, averaging 0.5 yards before contact per rush. He did not look good with his opportunities, failing to avoid a single tackle on eight rush attempts. But again, he was often mauled at or behind the line of scrimmage by multiple defenders.

Atlanta Falcons

Sixth-round rookie WR Casey Washington played a ton and turned his nine targets into three receptions and 27 yards. I saw someone on Twitter call him this year's Puka Nacua after the game. We are so back.

I am just as lost as that person, so I looked up Washington's collegiate data. It's horrible. He played five seasons at Illinois. He never had more than 700 receiving yards in a season and was only above 400 once. His per-route data is wildly inefficient. There's your Casey Washington content, you're welcome.

The most notable takeaway for Atlanta was not anything player-specific:

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's backups struggled to move the ball, producing 99 rushing yards and 99 receiving yards in total. Rookies Rasheen Ali (Round 5 RB) and Devontez Walker (Round 4 WR) got a lot of playing time. Ali looked fast and decisive but found few running lanes. Walker looked sort of lost. He is big!

Buffalo Bills

My Bills preseason notes centered around Keon Coleman. He and Khalil Shakir were the opening play starters for the Bills, along with James Cook, Dawson Knox, and Dalton Kincaid.

Coleman looked energetic. He overran a few plays and slipped on a few others. If he settles down and finds some rhythm, the rookie could be poised for a huge season. It'll be interesting to see how the reps continue to be dispersed throughout the preseason. The initial usage (sample size: eight plays with Josh Allen on the field) is positive for Coleman's Fantasy value and negative for Curtis Samuel's.

I do find it interesting that Samuel was on the field for all three of the plays with Kincaid in the slot, while Shakir was removed from the field in those instances. I wonder if, over a larger sample size, Samuel's snap rate would have risen and Shakir's would have fallen. If the Bills plan to use Kincaid in the slot frequently, it might make it difficult for Shakir to get on the field.

Carolina Panthers

Not much to see here. Rookie TE J'Tavion Sanders ran 14 routes without a target. Bryce Young did not play. Jonathan Mingo suited up and ran six routes.

Chicago Bears

There is LOTS to see here! Caleb Williams looked every bit as electric as he did at the collegiate level. Keenan Allen apparently weighs 230 pounds?! D'Andre Swift drew the start, but it was Khalil Herbert who rushed nine times with the first-team offense. Williams was on the field for 18 plays, and the Bears only dropped back to pass eight times.

Both Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett started ahead of Rome Odunze, and Everett actually played more than Kmet during the time that Williams was on the field.

Three of Williams' seven pass attempts went to DJ Moore. Two went to Kmet. Odunze and Swift each saw one target.

Cincinnati Bengals

Jermaine Burton torched backups, which might be enough to get him some playing time with the starting offense soon.

Zack Moss missed this game with an illness.

Cleveland Browns

Not much to see here. Rookie WR Jamari Thrash ran a team-high 29 routes. It appears as if he is well behind Cedric Tillman and David Bell on a deep WR depth chart.

Dallas Cowboys

Trey Lance produced 188 passing yards on 47 dropbacks. WOOF! He had the highest average time to throw of any QB. I have not found it in me to put myself through his footage yet. I'm hoping that the QB School will provide analysis on Lance so that I can take my suffering in a bit more passively. Lance added 42 rushing yards on six carries.

Camp standout Jalen Tolbert did not suit up. He seems to clearly be ahead of Ryan Flournoy and Jalen Brooks on the depth chart.

Denver Broncos

Reviews are in, and my guy Dan on the can is ready to call Bo Nix a colossal bust.

I haven't watched Nix's throws yet. Again, I'm leaning on the QB School to do my homework for me (early signs do not look good!). I'll dig in later in the week. Here, I found another QB guru who was discouraged by what Nix put on film. I had been optimistic that Nix might be ready to start early in the season and potentially be effective. I'm now afraid we might be treated to extended Jarrett Stidham action.

I did watch his rushing plays! The Broncos called an option for him (11-yard first down run), and he chose to scramble for another first down. Nix is a decent athlete, and a big part of Russell Wilson finishing as the QB14 in Fantasy in 2023 was Wilson's 343 yards and 3 touchdowns contributed on the ground. That type of per-game rushing might be attainable for Nix.

When throwing, Nix had the highest off-target rate of any Broncos QB at 9.5%. That's not an overly concerning rate, but it's worth mentioning in conjunction with a low average depth of target (7.1 yards).

It was good to see all of Javonte Williams, Greg Dulcich, and Tim Patrick healthy and back on the field. Williams created 14 of his 15 rushing yards after contact and was targeted twice. He could be this offense's engine.

Rookie Round 4 WR Troy Franklin ran 14 routes (mostly with Nix, but with Zach Wilson too) and did not have a catch.

Detroit Lions

Donovan Peoples-Jones played deep into the second half of Detroit's first preseason game, which is weird for a veteran who has been an NFL starter. My guess at the most effective receiver trio for this team involves DPJ at the "X" receiver spot with his foot at the line of scrimmage ready to take on press coverage, Jameson Williams as the "flanker" receiver lined up off of the line of scrimmage, and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot. We'll see how this develops over the upcoming weeks.

Not much to see otherwise, for Fantasy purposes. I thought rookie RB Sione Vaki looked good.

Green Bay Packers

Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Josh Jacobs, and Luke Musgrave were the starting skill position players along with Jordan Love. The first Packers play was a Jacobs run, the second was a Jacobs reception. Dontayvion Wicks subbed in for Watson on the third play and cooked a nickel corner for a long touchdown. Reed came off of the field for the second play, a two-receiver set, but returned for the third play.

Rookie RB Marshawn Lloyd injured his hamstring. It has been an absolutely brutal run-out for him entering his first NFL regular season. 2024 may turn out to be a redshirt season for the Round 3 selection.

Houston Texans

Dameon Pierce started for Joe Mixon and was on the field for 100% of the plays with C.J. Stroud. Tank Dell looked explosive as ever on his touchdown reception but was the receiver who came off of the field in three-receiver sets. Stefon Diggs was in the slot for all of Houston's three-receiver sets.

Indianapolis Colts

With Josh Downs dealing with an ankle injury, it was AD Mitchell occupying the slot for the Colts. Round 6 rookie Anthony Gould also worked primarily from the slot, but not until later in the game.

When Anthony Richardson was on the field, it was Pittman, Mitchell, and Alec Pierce at the receiver spots.

Jelani Woods played, but not with the starters.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis stayed on the field for two-receiver sets (just two plays), while Christian Kirk hit the bench. That appeared to be Jacksonville's 2023 plan, but Kirk played his way into a larger role as Zay Jones struggled with his health.

BTJ sure looked the part to me. He's huge and just eats up yardage as a strider. He looked comfortable and made a really nice adjustment on an underthrown deep ball reception. He was open and not targeted two other times. He only ran seven routes. Travis Etienne scored an easy receiving touchdown on a 'Texas' angle route. Please get Etienne more involved as a receiver!

Kansas City Chiefs

Round 1 rookie WR Xavier Worthy started for the Chiefs and may be targeted at a high rate right away if Hollywood Brown (shoulder injury) misses early regular season action.

Rookie Round 3 tight end Jared Wiley was used as a perimeter receiver and in the slot. He was not on the field for any of the Patrick Mahomes plays.

Las Vegas Raiders

We saw both Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer on the field a lot with the starting Raiders offense. I'm not sure how sustainable this usage will be with Davante Adams back in the mix. In this game, Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker were the top two receivers. Bowers lined up as a perimeter receiver twice and was used in the slot once. He only played 11 snaps.

Los Angeles Chargers

Rookie Round 6 RB Kimani Vidal did not suit up and may be on the outside looking in for a roster spot.

Los Angeles Rams

Camp standout and 2024 Round 6 selection Jordan Whittington stood out for the Rams at WR. Sean McVay continues to praise the rookie. You can watch all of his preseason targets here.

Free agent acquisition Colby Parkinson did not suit up this game. He appears to be the locked-in starting tight end, and the Rams paid him as such. He remains one of the most intriguing late-round tight end Fantasy picks available.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins used three-receiver sets at a way higher-than-usual frequency. This could be nothing, or it could be a sign that Odell Beckham Jr. or rookie Round 6 pick Malik Washington may play a significant role. Washington struggled to find his footing in his first preseason game.

Miami's rookie Round 4 RB looked as advertised in terms of explosiveness. One could question the rookie's vision at times, but overall, his preseason film has me feeling encouraged about his ability to contribute if given an opportunity. He can chew up yards in a hurry if there's open space. Wright remains pretty much free in drafts, and with late-round dart throws like Marshawn Lloyd and Kimani Vidal falling off the board, he's an easy upside pick. You'll probably be well-served to leave your draft with at least one Dolphins RB.

Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold started and dropped back to pass eight times. The Vikings used a ton of play-action deep passing. Darnold posted a 12.5% off-target rate on an 11.5-yard average depth of target. Rookie J.J. McCarthy posted an 11.8% off-target rate on a 9.5-yard aDOT.

I absolutely love the Kevin O'Connell empowered McCarthy to go out and take some risks in his first NFL action. There were some questionable decisions made by the rookie for sure, but he might have to make mistakes to learn. When else will he have this opportunity? (This question is really for the Patriots, who only let Drake Maye drop back three times)

New England Patriots

Rookie Round 4 WR Javon Baker played a lot, but not until the first- and second-string quarterbacks were done for the day. My quick notes on New England focused on the two rookie receivers:

Rookie Round 7 TE Jaheim Bell ran 10 routes, drew one target, and gained 11 yards after the catch. Our YAC king is alive and well.

New Orleans Saints

Taysom Hill's package has never been so expanded. He was the "X" receiver on the first Saints offensive play. He lined up in the slot, at fullback, at tight end, and multiple times as an outside receiver. Rashid Shaheed did not suit up. Cedrick Wilson started over A.T. Perry.

Puka Nacua's 26-year-old brother, Samson, ran 15 routes and caught two of four targets for 19 yards.

New York Giants

Malik Nabers only ran one of eight routes from the slot. The Giants had three or more receivers on the field for four of Nabers' routes, and he remained on the perimeter for three of those routes. That is definitely interesting to me. Nabers was much better when avoiding press coverage at the collegiate level. My target projection for him assumed a heavy helping of catch-and-run layups from the slot. If the Giants ask the rookie to simply line up and win from the outside, he may not be able to access the type of target totals that so many excited Fantasy footballers are hoping for.

Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. drew the start (with Devin Singletary sidelined), rookie TE Theo Johnson did not. Daniel Bellinger started at TE. Johnson did play 67% of the starter's reps, though. He was target-less on eight routes run.

I thought that Tracy looked fantastic, and that was borne out in his advanced rushing data.

New York Jets

Braelon Allen is the clear second back on this depth chart and looked the part. He's huge and ran with more juice than you might expect for a 245-pound player.

None of the actual starters played, but it was still good to see rookie WR Malachi Corley join Allen in the starting lineup. He was targeted five times on 12 routes and attempted a full-field reversal (for a one-yard loss) on his first NFL opportunity. Awesome.

Philadelphia Eagles

Camp standout Johnny Wilson ran 23 routes but finished with only seven yards receiving. The six-foot-six Round 6 selection had a few nice blocks on screens and in the run game but was rarely in a position to make receiving plays.

Rookie Round 4 RB Will Shipley gathered a bunch of one-to-three yard gains on inside zone shotgun hand-offs that never had any chance of amounting to anything more than a big pile of players. He also found the edge and scored on a swing pass in the red zone. To me, the most impressive part of Shipley's debut was his pass blocking. He received more pass-blocking opportunities (four) than any other rookie RB.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Broderick Jones is who I expected to start at left tackle for Pittsburgh. Initial depth charts listed Jones at left tackle and 2024 Round 1 selection Troy Fautanu at right tackle. Instead, Jones started at right tackle and 2021 Round 4 selection Dan Moore Jr. started at left tackle. Later in the game, still with the starters on the field, Jones shifted to left tackle and Fautanu came in to play right tackle. Jones ended up leading the team in snaps and did not play well. His rookie season was up-and-down, but there were definitely some encouraging moments. It'll be interesting to see how the tackle situation develops. The strength of this line is the interior, but Arthur Smith does not give one single care about the strengths of his players and remains insistent on operating things his way. The Steelers used outside zone 60% of the time, compared to only a nine percent inside zone rate. That may not work if the tackles are a problem!

San Francisco 49ers

Truly almost nothing at all to see from San Fran. Neither rookie WR Ricky Pearsall (Round 1 selection) or Jacob Cowing (Round 4 selection) suited up. Rookie Round 4 RB Isaac Guerendo did not suit up. Year 3 RB Jordan Mason looked good.

Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba played a surprising amount. Zach Charbonnet only was on the field for five plays, for reference. JSN saw 21 plays in Seattle's initial 2024 preseason action.

He primarily played from the slot (76%), but JSN did not leave the field when the Seahawks used two-receiver sets. The window remains open for him to possibly cut into Tyler Lockett's playing time in 2024.

Rachaad White did not play, but he did watch his newfound competition thump some tacklers. Rookie Round 4 RB Bucky Irving looked awesome.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rookie Round 3 WR Jalen McMillan also looked awesome! Hell, we even got Rookie Round 1 center Graham Barton highlights!

It was just preseason action, but Irving looked like the exact same back that we saw in college. He's decisive, he runs extremely hard, and he's also shifty. He appears to be a very difficult player to tackle. I'm excited about new offensive coordinator Liam Coen's ability to potentially turn what has been a league-worst Bucs rushing attack around, and Irving could be a big part of that.

Tennessee Titans

We saw a glimpse of the creative usage that Brian Callahan envisioned for Calvin Ridley, and I thought that Ridley looked healthy and energized with the ball in his hands. I had been drafting DeAndre Hopkins over Ridley earlier this offseason, but the injury to Hopkins opens the door for Ridley to establish himself as the clear-cut top target for Will Levis early in the season.

Treylon Burks was on the field with Levis more than any other skill position player, lined up almost exclusively as the "X" receiver. He spent just one snap in the slot.

Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears split playing time evenly. I'll update you in this space over the upcoming weeks if we see any situational clues as to how the two might be used in the regular season. For now, it appears to be an even split.

Washington Commanders

I have been drafting Jayden Daniels as my QB7. He's my highest-exposure QB for the 2024 season. This offense is going to play fast, and Jalen Hurts is the only QB who I have projected for more rushing Fantasy points than Daniels. If he is more efficient as a passer than I'm expecting, Daniels could easily crack the top-five Fantasy scorers at his position.

I was happy to see him get the ball out quickly (1.97 seconds per attempt) in this game. His skill position players looked good. Luke McCaffrey was open a ton, albeit against third- and fourth-string defense. Ben Sinnott looks like a stud.

Jahan Dotson was the starting slot receiver for this game. It appears the Commanders are testing him out as the replacement for Curtis Samuel in that role. Dotson has been slightly worse from the slot on a per-route basis throughout his career, and he did little with his opportunities in the first preseason game. Washington's initial three-receiver set starters appear to be Dotson, Terry McLaurin, and Dyami Brown. We could definitely see McCaffrey slide in as the slot man, pushing Dotson to the perimeter and Brown to the bench.

If you have any remaining burning preseason questions, hit me up on Twitter!

I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning during the regular season! Until then, we'll be rocking three days a week. Use your newfound free toilet time wisely. Maybe learn a new language over the next few Tuesdays and Thursdays. You learned how to make sense of my ramblings and made-up stats this summer! You are capable of so much! What might you do with this newfound freedom? The world is yours! I will be sleeping. And I hope to occasionally use my free time on Tuesdays and Thursdays to go outside, maybe get some grass and sun on my skin. Take some deep breaths before we lock in for another fun and chaotic ride. NFL is so back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. This is going to be fun!

If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading!