Mock drafts are a staple of NFL coverage this time of year, but the reality is that free agency must occur first, and that will impact how these teams design their respective draft strategies. In today's thought exercise, we explore one free agency move for each NFL team and how that could impact its first-round strategy.
AFC East
- Bills: Release C Mitch Morse (*Note: Buffalo released Morse on Wednesday)
- Dolphins: Re-sign C Connor Williams
- Jets: Trade for Packers OT David Bakhtiari
- Patriots: Trade for Broncos WR Courtland Sutton
AFC West
- Broncos: Release S Justin Simmons (*Note: Denver released Simmons Thursday)
- Chargers: Release WR Mike Williams
- Chiefs: Sign OT Tyron Smith
- Raiders: Sign DT Chris Jones
AFC North
- Bengals: Sign TE Noah Fant
- Browns: Sign EDGE Danielle Hunter
- Ravens: Sign RB Saquon Barkley
- Steelers: Trade for Bears QB Justin Fields
AFC South
- Colts: Franchise tag and trade Michael Pittman Jr.
- Jaguars: Sign DT Christian Wilkins
- Texans: Trade for Commanders DT Jonathan Allen
- Titans: Trade for 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk
NFC East
- Commanders: Sign OT Jonah Williams
- Cowboys: Release WR Michael Gallup
- Eagles: Sign S Mike Edwards
- Giants: Sign OG Jonah Jackson
NFC West
- 49ers: Sign EDGE Za'Darius Smith
- Cardinals: Sign EDGE Chase Young
- Rams: Release OT Joe Noteboom
- Seahawks: Sign OG Mike Onwenu
NFC North
- Bears: Sign C Lloyd Cushenberry
- Lions: Trade for Browns CB Greg Newsome II
- Packers: Sign S Xavier McKinney
- Vikings: Sign QB Jacoby Brissett
NFC South
- Buccaneers: Sign OG Robert Hunt
- Falcons: Sign QB Kirk Cousins
- Panthers: Sign WR Calvin Ridley
- Saints: Release TE Taysom Hill
Without further ado, let's kick this off!
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen to the latest episode below!
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 1
The NFL Combine only added to my conviction that Caleb Williams will be the No. 1 overall selection. In free agency, I have the team signing a starting center who can work with Williams.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Washington released Charles Leno Jr., and its first-round pick is committed to drafting a quarterback. So, I have the Commanders signing offensive tackle Jonah Williams, and then they have a wealth of Day 2 picks that can be used to fill other needs around Drake Maye.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Jayden Daniels is the choice for New England at No. 3 overall, but he is not going to have a chance to succeed without an improved offensive line and skill talent. In this scenario, I have the Patriots trading for Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton to give Daniels a ball-winner down the field.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Arizona is the first team to draft and not pick a quarterback. Kyler Murray is back for at least the 2024 campaign, so the Cardinals use the choice on an impact skill player: Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
If the Chargers are going to release Mike Williams as suggested, then they will need to find another player capable of winning downfield for Justin Herbert. For as well as Rome Odunze performed at the combine, my preference is Malik Nabers.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
If this were to occur, then the 2024 NFL Draft would start with three consecutive quarterback selections followed by three consecutive wide receiver selections. Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson are role players right now, so Rome Odunze gives them a player capable of making an impact out of a variety of alignments.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
It is a deep, talented offensive tackle class, and there are multiple teams that need to address the position. Tennessee gets the pick of the litter after trading for Brandon Aiyuk in this scenario. It wanted to support Will Levis and accomplished that easily.
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Mock Trade from
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 - Pick 8
Denver traded away Courtland Sutton, which gave it more trade ammunition. The move up the board allows the Broncos to add Russell Wilson's replacement. His dead salary cap hit puts a strain on finances the next few years, so it is important to add a cheap, viable starting quarterback.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Chicago would love to add another pass-catcher for Caleb Williams, but that is not going to happen unless it moves up in the draft order. As it stands, the Bears pick edge rusher Dallas Turner and pair him with Montez Sweat, who was acquired at last season's trade deadline.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
New York is all in on its window with Aaron Rodgers. It trades with Green Bay for left tackle David Bakhtiari and then drafts Taliese Fuaga in the first round.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Marcus Davenport and Danielle Hunter are slated to hit free agency, so that creates a need at the position. Unless Minnesota gets aggressive in a trade up the board, it could be left without a dance partner at quarterback. Jacoby Brissett is a competent quarterback that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's former boss, Browns general manager Andrew Berry, signed two years ago and speaks highly of.
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Mock Trade from
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 12
Atlanta moves down a few spots but misses out on the draft's top two edge rushers. Still, the Falcons get a top-tier cornerback and pair him with A.J. Terrell. The team is moving to win now with free agent acquisition Kirk Cousins.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Las Vegas signs defensive tackle Chris Jones from its division rival and then drafts Quinyon Mitchell. Those two spots have been positions of weakness for the Raiders in recent history, but they may finally have quality answers on their roster.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
New Orleans does not have a lot of room to work with in free agency. The Saints have always fielded a rotation of edge rushers, and the selection of Laiatu Latu allows them to continue without making a splashy free agent signing.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Comments made by general manager Chris Ballard at the NFL Combine made it clear that the team hoped to have Michael Pittman Jr. back in some capacity, but it also sounded like there was a disconnect in long-term negotiations. After placing the franchise tag on him, both parties could win in the form of a tag and trade. With Pittman out of the picture, the team finds a replacement for Anthony Richardson.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Leonard Williams is gone, and the free agent signing of Michael Onwenu -- who played at Michigan where Mike Macdonald used to coach -- allows the Seahawks to address another position of need in the first round. Byron Murphy II is drafted to fill out the starting defensive line.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
If Calvin Ridley is gone, then Jacksonville needs another go-to outlet for Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence had ball winners at Clemson, but he has not had that big body to target since arriving in the NFL. Brian Thomas Jr. is still a bit rough around the edges but has the profile of an impactful X-receiver at the next level.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Cincinnati signs free agent tight end Noah Fant, which allows the franchise to focus on other positions of need. JC Latham replaces right tackle Jonah Williams, who departed in free agency.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Olu Fashanu lasting until this stage of the first round would come as a surprise, but that is how it played out in this scenario. Los Angeles benched Joe Noteboom last season, and although his dead salary cap hit is uncomfortably large, there may not be a way around moving forward without releasing him.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Pittsburgh acquires Justin Fields in exchange for a Day 2 selection in this scenario, then uses its first-round pick to draft a Georgia offensive tackle in the first-round for the second consecutive year. Fields began his career at Georgia ironically.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Brock Bowers has no business lasting this long in the first round, but the positional value will hurt him. Mike McDaniel had George Kittle in San Francisco and now has his own dynamic pass-catching tight end in Miami. The interior offensive line is an issue, but the Dolphins salvage the group a bit by retaining Connor Williams.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
It has been reported that Brandon Graham and the Eagles have a mutual interest in continuing their union, but that cannot last forever. There was also some speculation that Haason Reddick is on his way out the door. Derek Barnett was waived midseason. With so much turnover at the position, the Eagles reinvest with a first-round pick.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 23
Houston acquires defensive tackle Jonathan Allen from Washington, then drafts Kool-Aid McKinstry. The Texans are quickly stockpiling talent on defense with Will Anderson Jr., Derek Stingley Jr., Allen, McKinstry and others.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Dallas releases Michael Gallup and then replaces him with the NFL Combine's fastest man and former Texas Longhorn Xavier Worthy.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Green Bay parted ways with veteran left tackle David Bakhtiari, and the team is probably not looking to move Zach Tom from the right side. It has been speculated that Troy Fautanu may be destined to play inside at the next level, but his footwork is good enough to earn a look at left tackle.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Tampa Bay first prioritized retaining Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Evans, and then attention shifts to Baker Mayfield. The team also needs to address its interior offensive line; signing Robert Hunt and drafting Jackson Powers-Johnson accomplish that objective.
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From
Houston Texans
Round 1 - Pick 27
The situation in Arizona was saddled with pros and cons for Jonathan Gannon, but it really was a clean slate; essentially every move the Cardinals make is going to be an upgrade to the roster. They sign ascending edge rusher Chase Young, then draft Marvin Harrison Jr. and Nate Wiggins.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Buffalo has parted ways with veteran center Mitch Morse. It was reported that the team would move Connor McGovern to that vacancy, but Graham Barton is a more viable long-term solution. He is pegged inside next to last year's Day 2 selection, O'Cyrus Torrence.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Jonah Jackson has signed elsewhere in this scenario, so Detroit drafts Jordan Morgan. Morgan played left tackle at Arizona but moves inside for the Lions. Dan Campbell has created a physical football team, so if a piece to that Jenga tower is removed, then it must be replaced or the whole thing is at risk of toppling down.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Baltimore makes a splash free agent signing in Saquon Barkley, so that means the budget gets tighter in other areas. The selection of Darius Robinson helps replace Jadeveon Clowney, who may no longer fit the team's plans.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
San Francisco has one former first-round pick on its offensive line, and the successful teams usually have multiple. The selection of Tyler Guyton gives that unit some stability in the Brock Purdy era. Starting right tackle Colton McKivitz is on a reasonable deal that could make him a valuable reserve.
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Round 1 - Pick 32
At the end of the day, I think Chris Jones and the Chiefs come to an agreement that will keep him in Kansas City. However, the two parties took it down to the wire a year ago, and his absence would create a glaring hole at the heart of that defense. The team fills it with Johnny Newton.
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Teams without a first-round pick
34. Panthers - WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
Carolina needs to continue investing in Bryce Young. They need to build his confidence back up and the only way to do that is surrounding him with players capable of making a difference.
54. Browns - DT Braden Fiske, Florida State
Defensive tackles Jordan Elliott, Maurice Hurst and Shelby Harris are all free agents. Cleveland will need to find more depth at the position.
The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.
