2026 NFL post-draft buzz: Super Bowl sleepers, Aaron Rodgers' future, rookie fits and more

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

With the 2026 NFL Draft now in the rearview mirror, we're going to need something to hold us over for the next few weeks, so I'd like to send an early thank you to Aaron Rodgers. Aaron, feel free to milk out your decision as long as you need so we have something to talk about during the slow part of the offseason.

Of course, we're not quite to the slow part of the offseason yet, and that's because there's still one big event left on the calendar: schedule release. If the NFL keeps the same plans it's had over the past few years, the schedule will likely come out on either Wednesday, May 13, or Thursday, May 14. These dates are not set in stone, but it seems like there's a good chance we're less than two weeks away from the schedule coming out.

Alright, let's stop talking about the schedule and get to the rundown.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter.

1. Teams that thrust themselves into the Super Bowl conversation by having a strong offseason

The offseason is all about improving your roster, and some teams definitely did that better than others. With free agency and the NFL Draft now behind us, Tyler Sullivan looked at which long-shot teams did the best job of turning themselves into Super Bowl contenders.

Sullivan's definition of long shot is a team that has +2000 odds or worse of winning Super Bowl LXI, so that's what we're going to use here.

Here are the long shots that could now be dangerous in 2026 after putting together a strong offseason:

Bengals (+2200)
Notable offseason additions: DT Dexter Lawrence, DT Jonathan Allen, EDGE Boye Mafe, S Bryan Cook, EDGE Cashius Howell
Sullivan's take: Cincinnati already has the bones of a Super Bowl contender, with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins headlining the offense. However, that pesky defense -- coupled with poor injury luck -- has kept them from reaching their full potential in the Burrow era. Fortunately for Burrow and Bengals fans alike, the front office made it a point to address those defensive deficiencies this offseason. 

Cowboys (+2500)
Notable offseason additions: LB Dee Winters, CB Cobie Durant, S Jalen Thompson, EDGE Rashan Gary, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, S Caleb Downs, EDGE Malachi Lawrence
Sullivan's take: Dallas allowed the most points per game (30.1) and the most passing yards per game (251.5) in the NFL last season. Given those defensive struggles, the bulk of Jerry Jones' offseason efforts centered on improving that side of the ball. Perhaps the most notable addition came when star Ohio State safety Caleb Downs slid outside the top 10, prompting Dallas to trade up to No. 11 overall to land him. ... All of these changes should elevate the defense to a more respectable level. If Downs and Malachi Lawrence pop in Year 1, Dallas could surprise people and finally fulfill its fan base's annual proclamation that this is actually "the year."

Giants (+7000)
Notable offseason additions: LB Tremaine Edmunds, CB Greg Newsome II, FB Patrick Richard, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Isaiah Likely, EDGE/LB Arvell Reese, OT Francis Mauigoa, WR Malachi Fields
Sullivan's take: The Giants are giving off Patriots vibes from last season. They appear to have identified their young quarterback of the future entering Year 2, possess a solid nucleus of young talent, added key pieces throughout the offseason and, perhaps most importantly, have a stud first-year head coach in John Harbaugh. That's a recipe for a rapid turnaround, especially when you factor in a last-place schedule.

Sullivan actually has five teams on his list of potential Super Bowl contenders, and if you want to see who else made the cut, you can do that here.

2. Five rookies built to succeed in 2026 

When it comes to the NFL, it can be hard to predict whether a rookie is going to have any success during their career. A rookie's play largely depends on which team drafts him and how well he fits that scheme.

With that in mind, Jared Dubin made a list of five rookies built to succeed based on where they ended up.

• QB Fernando Mendoza, Raiders. The match between Mendoza and new coach Klint Kubiak is one made in heaven. All of the things Mendoza does best are featured aspects of the offense Kubiak likes to run. ... It might take some getting used to playing under center more often (Mendoza took just two dropbacks from under center in 2025 while the Seahawks were second in the NFL in under-center usage, per Tru Media), but once he gets up to speed on that front, the No. 1 pick should be a fantastic fit under his new head coach.
• EDGE Arvell Reese, Giants. The versatile Ohio State star went to a team that will allow him to play multiple roles, not just as an edge rusher, as might have been the case if he had been drafted elsewhere. The Giants have star EDGEs in Brian Burns and 2025 No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter (and they still have Kayvon Thibodeaux for now), so Reese doesn't need to be an every-down EDGE guy. Reese can play inside linebacker alongside free-agent signee Tremaine Edmunds while also walking up along the line of scrimmage, both on the EDGE and in the A and B gaps on occasion, under new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson.
• WR KC Concepcion, Browns. Concepcion was one of the most explosive playmakers in this draft class, and landing in Todd Monken's offense is a great fit. If you've seen what Zay Flowers did in Baltimore -- making back-to-back Pro Bowls with 160 catches for 2,270 yards and nine touchdowns over the last two seasons while operating as Lamar Jackson's No. 1 target -- that should give you an idea of how the Browns can use Concepcion once they get their quarterback situation squared away.

If you want to know which other rookies made the cut, you can find out here. 

3. NFL Draft: Every team's best pick

This newsletter was full of draft coverage on Monday, and we've got a little bit more for you today.

When it comes to the draft, the best way to make every fan base happy is to go over the BEST PICK that each team made, so that's what we're going to do today. CBS Sports NFL Draft guru Josh Edwards sifted through all 32 draft classes and came up with each team's best pick.

Let's check out a few of them:

• Steelers: WR Germie Bernard (Round 2, 47th overall). Bernard has been a personal favorite throughout this process because his floor is so high. The Steelers' receiver room is pretty well stocked with DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr. and now Bernard. 
• Raiders: CB Jermod McCoy (Round 4, 101st overall). McCoy was a top-10-caliber prospect, but the long-term prognosis of his knee was obviously uncomfortable for teams. If he can stay healthy, the bet should pay immediate dividends at a position Las Vegas has inadequately addressed for years. 
• Chiefs: QB Garrett Nussmeier (Round 7, 249th overall). Nussmeier was a Day 2 talent whose injury situation curbed his season. He enters a situation where he can sit and learn behind Patrick Mahomes. 
• Eagles: DL Uar Bernard (Round 7, 251st overall). A roster wrinkle is why Bernard gets the nod over USC wide receiver Makai Lemon. As a part of the International Player Pathway program (IPP), Bernard will not count against the roster limit until the 53-man roster deadline. At that point, he becomes a practice squad exemption. Philadelphia essentially drafted a free look at one of the world's most explosive athletes. 
• Commanders: EDGE Joshua Josephs (Round 5, 147th overall). With the exception of Athan Kaliakmanis in the seventh round, Washington achieved surplus value with each of its selections. The Josephs pick, in particular, gives them a bit of a different skill set at the position to pair with Odafe Oweh, Dorance Armstrong and K'Lavon Chaisson. 

If you want to see the other 27 best picks, be sure to check out Edwards' full story. He also made a list that consists of the most questionable pick that each team made, and you can check that out here. 

4. Biggest post-draft need for every team, plus free agent fits

The goal of the NFL Draft is to fill all the holes on your roster, but for a variety of reasons, it's not usually practical to fill EVERY hole. Every team tends to leave the draft with at least one glaring hole, so Zach Pereles decided to identify where that weakness is for each team.

Not only did Pereles identify a roster hole for each team, but he also came up with a free agent to fill it. 

Bills

Biggest need: Left guard
Free agent fit: James Daniels
Skinny: The Bills lost stalwart left guard David Edwards in free agency and don't have a ready-made solution; Alec Anderson has played all over the place but has just six career starts. Daniels had an excellent 2024 with the Steelers before an injury wiped out his 2025.

Bengals

Biggest need: Linebacker
Free agent fit: Bobby Okereke
Skinny: PFF graded 88 linebackers last year. Three Bengals made the list: Demetrius Knight Jr. (graded 83rd), Barrett Carter (85th) and Oren Burks (88th). That's just not viable. Cincinnati addressed the defensive front and the secondary; linebacker must be next.

Bears

Biggest need: Edge rusher
Free agent fit: Jadeveon Clowney
Skinny: He still plays the run and the pass well, and that's something the Bears very much need. A one-year deal for the former No. 1 pick makes plenty of sense.

49ers

Biggest need: Edge rusher
Free agent fit: Joey Bosa
Zach's take: The 49ers had one of the most anemic pass rushes in the NFL in 2025, and while injuries to Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams played their parts, San Francisco still needs to improve. A Bosa brother tandem could work well in that instance, as Joey showed he can still get it done. 

If you want to see the other 28 roster holes, we've got those here. 

5. Explaining the Aaron Rodgers situation

The Aaron Rodgers situation took another twist this week when the Steelers placed an unrestricted free-agent tender on the 42-year-old quarterback. This is a seldom-used strategy that teams have used only six times over the past 10 years.

Here's what you need to know: 

• Why Steelers made the move. Steelers owner Art Rooney explained why his team used the tender on Rodgers. "The main thing that the tender gives us is the potential for a comp(ensatory) pick if Aaron would choose to go to another team," Rooney told NFL Network on Wednesday. "We don't expect that, but by the same token, you never know. It's just something we had an opportunity to protect if needed." If Rodgers signs somewhere else, the Steelers would get a comp pick, but there's also another benefit for Pittsburgh: Rodgers isn't allowed to negotiate with another team after July 22, so if he's still unsigned at that point, he'll either have to play for the Steelers or no one. 
• Why they made the move now. During free agency, if you lose an unrestricted free agent to another team, that loss counts in the compensatory formula, which allows you to earn extra picks in next year's draft. However, as of Monday (April 27) at 4 p.m. ET, losing a free agent no longer counts in the comp pick formula UNLESS you use the unrestricted free-agent tender. "The deadline was Monday, so if we were going to do it, we had to pull the trigger on Monday," Rooney explained. "We alerted Aaron and his representative that we were going to do it, and so not a real big deal. Just something that in the unlikely event he goes somewhere else, we are eligible for a comp pick."
• Rooney expects the situation to be resolved soon. Last year, Rodgers didn't sign with the Steelers until June, and it sounds like Rooney expects him to be on the same timeline this year. "Even though I thought it probably would have been concluded by now, I think we will come to a conclusion here in the next few weeks."

The most interesting thing in all of this is that you wouldn't use the tender unless you were at least slightly worried that he might sign somewhere else. Looking around the NFL, there aren't many spots where it would make sense for Rodgers to go, but there's definitely one intriguing option, and that's Arizona.

At this point, the quarterback situation is still up in the air. Jacoby Brissett has the inside track to be the starter but he's holding out of voluntary workouts for more money. Instead of giving Brissett more money, they could call Rodgers and give that money to him. The Cardinals also signed Gardner Minshew and drafted Carson Beck, but it seems unlikely either of those guys would start Week 1.

6. Extra points: Deshaun Watson has inside track to winning Browns QB job

It's been a busy past few days in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Deshaun Watson might be getting his job back. The Browns currently have four quarterbacks on their roster: Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel and Taylen Green. With OTAs right around the corner, Watson appears to have the upper hand when it comes to winning the job. If you want the full details of the situation, we've got that here. 
• Alvin Kamara's future remains unclear. No one seems to know if Kamara will play for the Saints this year. The running back's future in New Orleans has been in question since March when the team signed Travis Etienne. During an interview this week, general manager Mickey Loomis was asked about Kamara's future with the team and gave a vague answer, "I think we're still trying to work through that, to see where we're at roster-wise."
• Azeez Al-Shaair gets three-year extension from Texans. The Texans have been busy handing out contract extensions this offseason, and their latest went to Al-Shaair. The linebacker landed a three-year, $54 million extension on Wednesday that keeps him under contract through 2029. Al-Shaair joins Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter as defensive starters who have been given hefty extensions this offseason. 
• Russell Wilson visits the Jets. Wilson was once teammates with Geno Smith in Seattle, and it appears the two could reunite in New York. The Super Bowl-winning quarterback visited with the Jets this week, and that visit happened because Smith pushed for the Jets to bring Wilson in. The Jets just drafted Cade Klubnik and have Brady Cook, but Wilson would certainly add a veteran presence at backup QB that the team doesn't currently have.