The first two weeks of training camp along with the first week of preseason games offers an evergreen reminder that whatever we thought in the offseason doesn't matter once August comes around.
Panthers running back Jonathon Brooks was on his way to overtaking Chuba Hubbard -- he was already ranked ahead of him -- but a hamstring injury resulting in a weeks-long absence for Hubbard has catapulted Brooks into the top 70 picks in drafts. And he might not stop rising.
And in Pittsburgh, multiple credible reports offer Rico Dowdle as a primary runner for the Steelers slightly ahead of Jaylen Warren. We already knew Dowdle was a Mike McCarthy favorite going back to their Dallas days, but now it seems like Dowdle could become a Fantasy manager's favorite, also.
Meanwhile, the Giants could be headed toward a multi-pronged rushing approach, Josh Jacobs' future remains up in the air, and the first impression of Jeremiyah Love was exciting.
The point is that this position, more than any other, will continue evolving all the way up until Week 1, which is somehow still about a month away from the time this story publishes. A smart Fantasy drafter will stay on top of the news and make draft plan changes accordingly. For now, all of the running back changes have deepened the position and made it a little bit easier to draft with confidence.
Is it enough to alter draft strategies? No, but at least you now know of more options once you get past the first few tiers.
Tier 1
Round 1 in half-PPR
Pretty self-explanatory group of mega-stud running backs worth a first-round pick. All of them have the potential for 18-plus half-PPR points per game. Maybe there's an argument that Chase Brown doesn't belong, but he has not only been solid in each of his past two seasons (at least 14 half-PPR points per game in each), but he has also shown flashes of being a monster close to the level of Robinson and Gibbs when the Bengals have given him a lot of work. That's in play this season, given the lack of running back improvements they made this offseason.
Tier 2
Round 2 in half-PPR
Don't be surprised to see Achane or Henry taken closer to the names in the first tier. However, both carry concerns that shouldn't be overlooked: Achane figures to see a decline in both targets and touchdowns given the changes around the Dolphins offense, and Henry isn't fighting age as much as a track record of declining numbers when the Ravens are trailing, plus the Ravens' new offensive system could mean changes to how much they actually run the ball. Walker III has disappointed us so many times before, and Chiefs running backs have disappointed us for much of this decade, but there's something about an explosive back like Walker getting schemed up in an Andy Reid offense that should get Fantasy managers pretty excited.
This is a good group to expect at least 15 half-PPR points per game from.
Tier 3
Round 3 in half-PPR
You might expect some of these names to slip into the back of Round 2 in half-PPR drafts. Jacobs would absolutely be in the second tier if his off-field issues were non-existent. The rest of the names carry at least mild risk due to injuries, splitting with another running back, a fall-off in performance, or all of the above. And yet you could argue they're a notch better than anyone else in the tiers after them.
I don't think it's a mistake to expect at least 13.5 half-PPR points per game from this tier.
Tier 4
Rounds 4-5 in half-PPR
It's notable that a tier of six players is expected to last two rounds. That speaks to the limited supply of decent-enough No. 2 running backs.
Etienne should be the primary back for a potent Saints offense. We know Judkins can be a workhorse in Cleveland, we're not sure if Skattebo will be given the same chance in New York but his game is impossible to ignore, and while it's been a few years since we've seen Hall average over 13.5 half-PPR points per game, there is a fair argument to make that he can get there again. You may see Hall go a full tier higher, something I personally don't agree with.
After them, there are some questions. Swift is expected to significantly split with Kyle Monangai (who's going several rounds later), and Irving also has great upside but will split with potentially two backs (both of whom are going several rounds later).
Every RB in this tier will be gone by the end of Round 5, if not the middle, and all have a profile that offers at least 12.5 half-PPR points per game.
Tier 5
Rounds 6-7 in half-PPR
No one's made a bigger leap in the last week than Brooks, who appears to be over his latest ACL tear and sees a clear pathway to be the Panthers lead running back not just for Week 1, but the whole year. The sticking point is deciding on when it's not too risky to take him -- I've settled on him being behind the RBs in this tier. Could he outplay them? Yes. Could they all outplay him? Obviously possible given that Brooks has played almost one full season of organized football in his past five years. You have to weigh the risks involved in drafting Brooks.
You're hoping for these guys to at least hold down an 11 half-PPR average.
Tier 6
Round 8 in half-PPR
Tier 7
Rounds 9-11 in half-PPR
Tier 8
Rounds 12+ in half-PPR (and pretty much any format)
