We're still several weeks away from MLB's stretch run to the playoffs, then we'll get a full month of amazing October baseball, but even so, there are more than a handful of teams already looking toward next season. Even some of the teams still in contention are objectively not good teams; there are so many mediocre teams, in fact, that several of them are in playoff position (looking at you, AL West and final American League wild-card berth).
As of today, Aug. 19, there are 16 teams under .500. Let's examine how each shapes up for next season and if we can expect them to contend in 2027. We'll give each team a number from 1 (incredibly low chance at contention) to 10 (will 100% be a contender).
Still 2026 contenders, but ...
To reiterate: Sure, these teams are contending, but let's face it: they aren't good teams.
Contention chances: 5
I don't have much confidence in this front office's ability to develop players or meaningfully add to the big-league roster, both of which are needed to shape this group into a legitimate contender. Looking for a leap forward would require developing multiple Triple-A pitchers and internal improvements at several positions. They're only in the race now because the league is bad. I'm not expecting much different next season.
Contention chances: 9
The offensive backbone in place with Riley Greene and the inconsistent power of Spencer Torkelson now includes one of the best offensive catchers in Dillon Dingler, along with rookie sensations Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark. Maybe Brett Callahan sticks, too, while there's more room for improvement from Colt Keith. Zyhir Hope, acquired at the deadline in the Tarik Skubal trade, could join the fray. The rotation will bring back Troy Melton, Framber Valdez, Keider Montero and Jackson Jobe, who will be in his first full season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Perhaps River Ryan fills the fifth spot. We'll see if they're allowed to spend any money, but this team will very, very likely look strong heading into next season.
Contention chances: 5
I'm not bullish here. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are each signed for one more year, but they'll be 39 and 37, respectively. Maybe the front office will be successful in convincing them to accept trades this offseason. Are we confident that MacKenzie Gore, Kumar Rocker and/or Jack Leiter will be good starters? Cody Bradford? Maybe. Offensively, Joc Pederson is likely to hit free agency (and regress, anyway), there are plenty of concerns with Corey Seager and I'm running out of gas on hoping for Evan Carter to figure things out. Wyatt Langord and Josh Jung are a good place to start and Brandon Nimmo will likely remain productive, at least.
Contention chances: 4
Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers are hitting free agency. The return of Pablo López will help, but when will he be back from Tommy John surgery? And can they really count on him bouncing back to his normal levels? Taj Bradley is having a decent year, but are the Twins actually building a staff around him, Bailey Ober and Zebby Matthews? Byron Buxton is still great when he plays, but the injury history is concerning. Who could take big steps forward? Luke Keaschall and maybe Royce Lewis? Brooks Lee? Perhaps Kaelen Culpepper shows his stuff the rest of the way in 2026.
Contention chances: 8
First things first, they need so much more -- so much more -- from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It isn't just him, but his falloff is killing them. George Springer is a free agent, but otherwise much of the group is back, such as Ernie Clement, Kazuma Okamoto, Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes and Andrés Giménez. The rotation will include Dylan Cease, José Soriano, Trey Yesavage, Spencer Arrighetti and either José Berríos or a replacement (Nolan Perry?!). I like their chances of being better.
Contention chances: 7
They always find a way to at least hang around. I'm concerned with the offense again, especially since José Ramírez may have lost his Superman cape and Steven Kwan has regressed (my hunch is Kwan gets traded anyway). There is hope for a nice move forward from the likes of Kyle Manzardo, Travis Bazzana and Angel Genao, though. We might even see new prospects like Ralphy Velazquez and Jaison Chourio sprinkled in. Gavin Williams and Parker Messick are a nice foundation for the rotation, too. The Guardians will be a factor. Again.
Contention chances: 8
The rotation can be formidable with Logan Gilbert, Emerson Hancock, Bryan Woo, George Kirby and Bryce Miller -- and remember, top prospect Kade Anderson could be ready for his shot, too. Offensively, they're facing free agency with Randy Arozarena, Taylor Ward and J.P. Crawford. The Crawford loss isn't bad and they just traded for Ward, but Arozarena has meant so much to them this year. It would behoove them to bring him back. And, man, they'll need a little more from Josh Naylor, probably a little more from Julio Rodríguez and a ton more from Cal Raleigh. As for youngsters, we've seen good flashes from Cole Young and Colt Emerson. Could Michael Arroyo and/or Lazaro Montes make an impact? There are a lot of good pieces here.
Promising outlook
Contention chances: 6
I can't go any higher than this because of what the Mets went through earlier this season, but there are many reasons for hope. To start, they've got Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. Bo Bichette probably hasn't played well enough to opt out of his deal, but he's a better player than he's shown this season (and has looked far more like himself in the second half). Some of the youth movement has shown great promise, such as Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing. Speaking of, Nolan McLean and Christian Scott are a great place to start in the rotation. Maybe Jonah Tong pans out, and it's possible Jonathan Santucci or Jack Wenninger make good on what could be an audition late this season. And who knows what David Stearns will have in store for a roster makeover this coming offseason? Maybe he won't be as aggressive in reshaping things this time around, but there could be some money for a frontline starting pitcher or something. It would be a mistake to dismiss them with an "LOLMets."
Contention chances: 5
I was burned by this Royals team in 2026, but there are plenty of good players here. Bobby Witt Jr. is capable of an MVP season, and we've seen enough from Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone to believe they could be All-Stars next year if things break right. Vinnie Pasquantino is capable of a better season, too. On the pitching end, they'll have Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha back, while Noah Cameron looks like a star right now. A midseason return of Cole Ragans will help bolster the rotation, and maybe they find outside-organization help or someone like Justin Lamkin hustles on his way to the majors. The AL Central isn't exactly a juggernaut division, either.
Contention chances: 5
They aren't losing anyone of import to free agency, and (say it with me) maybe they'll ramp up spending a bit more as they get closer to their move to Las Vegas. I strongly believe in the offensive nucleus, too, notably Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom. Can Lawrence Butler bounce back after two bad years? Can they put together a good pitching staff? There are plenty of questions, but that young offense is a great jumping-off point, as long as they can stay healthy. Like the Royals, the A's aren't in a difficult division, either.
Contention chances: 4
My big worry here is that the new front office isn't yet ready to drop the hammer. Will they trade CJ Abrams, as he's only one year away from free agency? That would be a rather significant sign that the eyes remain on the future instead of the present. There have been a lot of wins this season, though. The farm system is now stacked. Abrams' growth. James Wood continues to establish himself as a top-tier superstar. Offensive gains across the board to the point that it's one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. The power from Andrés Chaparro and Abimelec Ortiz looks real. What will the staff around Cade Cavalli look like, though? Will Josiah Gray be back and look good? Payroll has been stripped down to a point that the Nats could spend big if they wanted, but does that spending line up with the window the front office has planned? There are plenty of questions, but there are several reasons to believe the Nats contending is a realistic possibility.
Contention chances: 5
On the opposite end of what was said for the AL West and AL Central teams, the NL Central looks pretty tough. The Brewers and Cubs aren't going anywhere, and the Cardinals might well be very good. For the Pirates, this one seems pretty simple. After having a terrible offense in 2025, they went out and fixed it. It's good now! But the rotation has kind of fallen apart. Can they get the good 2026 offense with the best versions of Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller, in addition to some growth from Bubba Chandler? I'd really like that squad.
Little hope for a step forward
Contention chances: 2
They have big money locked up in Rafael Devers through 2033, Willy Adames through 2031, Matt Chapman through 2030, Jung Hoo Lee through 2029 and Logan Webb through 2028. There is good promise in youngster Bryce Eldridge, and the Giants now boast one of the five or so best farm systems in baseball. Given the way this season has gone from start to finish, however, I'm unwilling to believe that everything comes together to make this group into a contender in 2027. Maybe they can thread that needle for 2028.
Contention chances: 3
The Reds were just in the playoffs last season, but they currently look closer to a rebuild than another October run. It might be time to just fire Nick Krall and hand baseball operations to someone from outside the organization because development hasn't happened much outside of Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Chase Burns and Hunter Greene -- and Greene isn't expected back until 2028 after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery. It's just about time to give up on Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott is a fine mid-rotation starter. On the position-player side, does anyone have confidence in any players to be good next year aside from Stewart and De La Cruz? Tyler Stephenson is a free agent. How much more time are we giving Matt McLain and Noelvi Marté? TJ Friedl has fallen apart. Maybe JJ Bleday is a keeper. Maybe. Perhaps Héctor Rodríguez gets better the rest of this year and earns a shot for next year?
Overall, I was surprised by how sour I was in looking toward next year with this bunch. There just isn't much room for optimism behind De La Cruz, Stewart and Burns, as awesome as that trio is.
Hopeless, for now
Contention chances: 1
Maybe Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel prove productive, and Wade Meckler is showing some signs of positivity, but Mike Trout will be 35 years old and there isn't much else here in the lineup. Reid Detmers looks good in the rotation, but he's a major trade candidate this coming offseason. Walbert Ureña can't carry this group of starters all on his own. The farm system isn't highly regarded and there aren't many impact prospects at the high levels of the minors.
It's gonna take a while.
Contention chances: 1
I love Hunter Goodman and like TJ Rumfield. Mickey Moniak has found a home and you could argue the same for Jake McCarthy. Cole Carrigg and Kyle Karros have produced. I'm just not sure there's a ton of untapped upside in that group, and it's part of an offense that's already below average when adjusted for ballpark. The pitching staff remains a total mess. The farm system is middle-of-the-road without much immediate help coming other than first baseman/outfielder Charlie Condon.
It's gonna take a while.
