Of the wide receivers that played at least 10 games in 2025 and finished top-12 in half-PPR points per game, four averaged at least 15 half-PPR points and 24 total averaged at least 10 half-PPR points.
The first number is in line with what we've seen previously -- no fewer than four and no more than five wideouts averaged more than 15 half-PPR points in each of the past two seasons.
But in 2024 and 2023, using the same 10-game minimum qualifier, at least 34 wide receivers averaged at least 10 half-PPR points.
It's not because teams are passing less -- the overall NFL pass play rate was 56.2% in 2025, about in line with where it's been since 2021. It's where the ball is going.
Receivers didn't score as much. In fact, the 470 total touchdowns caught by wide receivers in 2025 were the second-fewest since 2017. Meanwhile, tight ends caught 231 touchdowns, the most in a season since 2013 (233), and running backs caught over 100 scores for the first time since 2021.
Receivers also saw their lowest combined target share since 2017. The 57.9% was more than two percentage points behind where receivers were in 2024; usually, they've been around 59.5%. And while receivers lost targets, tight ends gained in a big way -- a 23.8% combined target share, the highest mark ever recorded.
And teams have preferred to use multiple receivers and spread the ball around when they don't have that undisputed alpha (or in the case of a few teams, two alphas). Nineteen qualifying wide receivers averaged at least seven targets per game, while 18 averaged between 6.0 and 6.9 targets per game. The seven-plus target number was 29 in 2024 and 2023!
And teams are running the ball more. We've seen a steady decline league-wide in pass attempts, from 34.4 per game per team in 2021 to 32.1 last season. Efficiency hasn't improved, either.
It might make you want to put a premium on those receivers who you know will see a ton of targets -- and do your due diligence on others after the early rounds who could see a ton of targets.
Lastly, the more catches are worth, the more you should chase high-volume receivers. In half-PPR, that edge only goes so far -- the 10th-best receiver in half-PPR last year on a per-game basis would have ranked 18th among the running backs last year. So the premium you might put on stud receivers in half-PPR might not be as good in full PPR.
Some positional notes:
- Ten of the top-12 qualifying wide receivers (played 10-plus games) averaged at least 8.0 targets per game.
- The wide receiver with the longest active streak of consecutive seasons with 15-plus half-PPR points per game is Amon-Ra St. Brown (three seasons). Justin Jefferson would have held that record if he had not stumbled last year.
- Between five and six of the top 12 wide receivers in 2024 and 2025 were on playoff teams. That's a big drop from 2021-23, when at least eight of the top 12 wideouts were on playoff teams.
- Between seven and eight of the top 12 wide receivers in 2023-25 were also in the top 12 the previous year. That's fairly good consistency.
Tier 1
Round 1 in half-PPR
Studs with high target volume from week to week. Not much else to think about here, other than one name in the group doesn't carry the same kind of track record of success as the others. That's the minimal risk you'll take with Smith-Njigba, whose previous high in half-PPR was 11.9 per game.
These will mostly be Round 1 picks expected to land north of 15 half-PPR points per game.
Tier 2
Round 2 in half-PPR
Studs with high target volume from week to week, but also a wee bit of downside due to quarterback, injury, and/or age concerns. Any could finish top 5 and no one would be shocked, but it would mean carrying high target volume through most of the regular season without a drop-off in play from their quarterback. Honestly, it's not too much to ask for from any of these guys. Jefferson is the one most people are expecting a huge resurgence from -- you already know his track record. Nabers is a fast riser after he showed up healthy to training camp.
Most of these receivers will be second-round picks with an expectation of 14 half-PPR points per game.
Tier 3
Round 3 in half-PPR
A slim majority of these guys have quarterback concerns but also have incredible talent. Not sure every receiver here has really good target volume but expecting north of 6.5 targets per game is fair. I'm not sure that's such a great number given where you're drafting these guys. But the reality is that every single player in the group could justifiably finish inside the top 10 or outside the top 20 at receiver and no one would be surprised either way.
Figure this group has a shot at 13 half-PPR points per game, but with volatility. Only Olave and Pickens were top-12 in consistency rate last year.
Tier 4
Round 4 in half-PPR
This tier frankly isn't that different from the tier prior. In fact, there are more receivers with better quarterbacks than in Tier 3. Problem is these guys don't necessarily have the same kind of expected target volume as the others, save for McLaurin and Wilson, but those guys aren't promised a ton of touchdowns. I'm not sure any of these guys are -- of the six, there have been seven times combined when one receiver has scored at least seven times in a season. A lot of these guys have been around a while. That's a little more alarming in half-PPR where their reception tally isn't quite as important.
They're best drafted as No. 2 options. This tier might be expected to land closer to 12 half-PPR points per game.
Tier 5
Round 5 in half-PPR
Very different profiles in this foursome. Burden could lead them all in targets and catches but finish last in touchdowns. Adams could lead them all in touchdowns but finish last in catches and yards. McMillan and Watson have high ceilings and depressing floors. And yet it's the last stop on the wide receiver tiers before you get to players who are better served as No. 3 options.
Feel free to think of the players in this tier with an 11 half-PPR points per game expectation.
Tier 6
Round 6 in half-PPR
Tier 7
Round 7 in half-PPR
Tier 8
Round 8 in half-PPR
Tier 9
Round 9 in half-PPR
Solid Backups
Rounds 10+ in half-PPR
