Dave Richard's wide receiver tiers 2.0: Ja'Marr Chase leads a deep Tier 1

Of the wide receivers that played at least 10 games in 2025 and finished top-12 in half-PPR points per game, four averaged at least 15 half-PPR points and 24 total averaged at least 10 half-PPR points.

The first number is in line with what we've seen previously -- no fewer than four and no more than five wideouts averaged more than 15 half-PPR points in each of the past two seasons. 

But in 2024 and 2023, using the same 10-game minimum qualifier, at least 34 wide receivers averaged at least 10 half-PPR points.

It's not because teams are passing less -- the overall NFL pass play rate was 56.2% in 2025, about in line with where it's been since 2021. It's where the ball is going.

Receivers didn't score as much. In fact, the 470 total touchdowns caught by wide receivers in 2025 were the second-fewest since 2017. Meanwhile, tight ends caught 231 touchdowns, the most in a season since 2013 (233), and running backs caught over 100 scores for the first time since 2021.

Receivers also saw their lowest combined target share since 2017. The 57.9% was more than two percentage points behind where receivers were in 2024; usually, they've been around 59.5%. And while receivers lost targets, tight ends gained in a big way -- a 23.8% combined target share, the highest mark ever recorded.

And teams have preferred to use multiple receivers and spread the ball around when they don't have that undisputed alpha (or in the case of a few teams, two alphas). Nineteen qualifying wide receivers averaged at least seven targets per game, while 18 averaged between 6.0 and 6.9 targets per game. The seven-plus target number was 29 in 2024 and 2023!

And teams are running the ball more. We've seen a steady decline league-wide in pass attempts, from 34.4 per game per team in 2021 to 32.1 last season. Efficiency hasn't improved, either. 

It might make you want to put a premium on those receivers who you know will see a ton of targets -- and do your due diligence on others after the early rounds who could see a ton of targets.

Lastly, the more catches are worth, the more you should chase high-volume receivers. In half-PPR, that edge only goes so far -- the 10th-best receiver in half-PPR last year on a per-game basis would have ranked 18th among the running backs last year. So the premium you might put on stud receivers in half-PPR might not be as good in full PPR.

Some positional notes:

• Ten of the top-12 qualifying wide receivers (played 10-plus games) averaged at least 8.0 targets per game.
• The wide receiver with the longest active streak of consecutive seasons with 15-plus half-PPR points per game is Amon-Ra St. Brown (three seasons). Justin Jefferson would have held that record if he had not stumbled last year.
• Between five and six of the top 12 wide receivers in 2024 and 2025 were on playoff teams. That's a big drop from 2021-23, when at least eight of the top 12 wideouts were on playoff teams. 
• Between seven and eight of the top 12 wide receivers in 2023-25 were also in the top 12 the previous year. That's fairly good consistency. 

Tier 1

Round 1 in half-PPR

Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN Cincinnati • #1 Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 125 TAR 185 REYDS 1412 TD 8 FPTS/G 15.7

Puka Nacua WR LAR L.A. Rams • #12 Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 129 TAR 166 REYDS 1715 TD 11 FPTS/G 19.4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA Seattle • #11 Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 119 TAR 163 REYDS 1793 TD 10 FPTS/G 17.7

Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET Detroit • #14 Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 117 TAR 172 REYDS 1401 TD 11 FPTS/G 15.6

CeeDee Lamb WR DAL Dallas • #88 Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 75 TAR 117 REYDS 1077 TD 3 FPTS/G 11.7

Studs with high target volume from week to week. Not much else to think about here, other than one name in the group doesn't carry the same kind of track record of success as the others. That's the minimal risk you'll take with Smith-Njigba, whose previous high in half-PPR was 11.9 per game.

These will mostly be Round 1 picks expected to land north of 15 half-PPR points per game.

Tier 2

Round 2 in half-PPR

Justin Jefferson WR MIN Minnesota • #18 Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 84 TAR 141 REYDS 1048 TD 2 FPTS/G 9.4

A.J. Brown WR NE New England • #1 Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 78 TAR 121 REYDS 1003 TD 7 FPTS/G 12.1

Rashee Rice WR KC Kansas City • #4 Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 53 TAR 78 REYDS 571 TD 6 FPTS/G 15.5

Drake London WR ATL Atlanta • #5 Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 68 TAR 112 REYDS 919 TD 7 FPTS/G 14.0

Nico Collins WR HOU Houston • #12 Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 71 TAR 120 REYDS 1117 TD 7 FPTS/G 12.7

Malik Nabers WR NYG N.Y. Giants • #1 Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 18 TAR 35 REYDS 271 TD 2 FPTS/G 14.3

Studs with high target volume from week to week, but also a wee bit of downside due to quarterback, injury, and/or age concerns. Any could finish top 5 and no one would be shocked, but it would mean carrying high target volume through most of the regular season without a drop-off in play from their quarterback. Honestly, it's not too much to ask for from any of these guys. Jefferson is the one most people are expecting a huge resurgence from -- you already know his track record. Nabers is a fast riser after he showed up healthy to training camp.

Most of these receivers will be second-round picks with an expectation of 14 half-PPR points per game.

Tier 3

Round 3 in half-PPR

George Pickens WR DAL Dallas • #3 Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 93 TAR 137 REYDS 1429 TD 9 FPTS/G 14.4

Tee Higgins WR CIN Cincinnati • #5 Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 59 TAR 98 REYDS 846 TD 11 FPTS/G 12.1

Emeka Egbuka WR TB Tampa Bay • #2 Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 63 TAR 127 REYDS 938 TD 6 FPTS/G 9.7

Chris Olave WR NO New Orleans • #12 Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 100 TAR 156 REYDS 1163 TD 9 FPTS/G 13.6

DeVonta Smith WR PHI Philadelphia • #6 Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 77 TAR 113 REYDS 1008 TD 4 FPTS/G 9.6

A slim majority of these guys have quarterback concerns but also have incredible talent. Not sure every receiver here has really good target volume but expecting north of 6.5 targets per game is fair. I'm not sure that's such a great number given where you're drafting these guys. But the reality is that every single player in the group could justifiably finish inside the top 10 or outside the top 20 at receiver and no one would be surprised either way.

Figure this group has a shot at 13 half-PPR points per game, but with volatility. Only Olave and Pickens were top-12 in consistency rate last year.

Tier 4

Round 4 in half-PPR

Jaylen Waddle WR DEN Denver • #17 Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 64 TAR 100 REYDS 910 TD 6 FPTS/G 10.1

Terry McLaurin WR WAS Washington • #17 Age: 31 • Experience: 8 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 38 TAR 60 REYDS 582 TD 3 FPTS/G 9.5

Garrett Wilson WR NYJ N.Y. Jets • #5 Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 36 TAR 59 REYDS 395 TD 4 FPTS/G 11.6

Ladd McConkey WR LAC L.A. Chargers • #15 Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 66 TAR 106 REYDS 789 TD 6 FPTS/G 9.2

Zay Flowers WR BAL Baltimore • #4 Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 86 TAR 118 REYDS 1211 TD 6 FPTS/G 11.8

DJ Moore WR BUF Buffalo • #2 Age: 29 • Experience: 9 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 50 TAR 85 REYDS 682 TD 8 FPTS/G 8.5

This tier frankly isn't that different from the tier prior. In fact, there are more receivers with better quarterbacks than in Tier 3. Problem is these guys don't necessarily have the same kind of expected target volume as the others, save for McLaurin and Wilson, but those guys aren't promised a ton of touchdowns. I'm not sure any of these guys are -- of the six, there have been seven times combined when one receiver has scored at least seven times in a season. A lot of these guys have been around a while. That's a little more alarming in half-PPR where their reception tally isn't quite as important. 

They're best drafted as No. 2 options. This tier might be expected to land closer to 12 half-PPR points per game.

Tier 5

Round 5 in half-PPR

Luther Burden III WR CHI Chicago • #10 Age: 22 • Experience: 2 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 47 TAR 60 REYDS 652 TD 2 FPTS/G 8.6

Tetairoa McMillan WR CAR Carolina • #4 Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 70 TAR 122 REYDS 1014 TD 7 FPTS/G 10.4

Davante Adams WR LAR L.A. Rams • #17 Age: 33 • Experience: 13 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 60 TAR 114 REYDS 789 TD 14 FPTS/G 13.8

Christian Watson WR GB Green Bay • #9 Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 35 TAR 55 REYDS 611 TD 6 FPTS/G 11.5

Very different profiles in this foursome. Burden could lead them all in targets and catches but finish last in touchdowns. Adams could lead them all in touchdowns but finish last in catches and yards. McMillan and Watson have high ceilings and depressing floors. And yet it's the last stop on the wide receiver tiers before you get to players who are better served as No. 3 options. 

Feel free to think of the players in this tier with an 11 half-PPR points per game expectation. 

Tier 6

Round 6 in half-PPR

Parker Washington WR JAC Jacksonville • #11 Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 58 TAR 95 REYDS 847 TD 5 FPTS/G 9.7

Mike Evans WR SF San Francisco • #5 Age: 33 • Experience: 13 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 30 TAR 62 REYDS 368 TD 3 FPTS/G 8.7

Brian Thomas Jr. WR JAC Jacksonville • #7 Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 48 TAR 91 REYDS 707 TD 3 FPTS/G 8.2

Jameson Williams WR DET Detroit • #1 Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 65 TAR 102 REYDS 1117 TD 7 FPTS/G 11.0

Marvin Harrison Jr. WR ARI Arizona • #18 Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 41 TAR 73 REYDS 608 TD 4 FPTS/G 8.9

Rome Odunze WR CHI Chicago • #15 Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 44 TAR 90 REYDS 661 TD 6 FPTS/G 10.3

Tier 7

Round 7 in half-PPR

Carnell Tate WR TEN Tennessee • #14 Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie

Chris Godwin WR TB Tampa Bay • #14 Age: 30 • Experience: 10 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 33 TAR 51 REYDS 360 TD 2 FPTS/G 7.4

Alec Pierce WR IND Indianapolis • #14 Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 47 TAR 84 REYDS 1003 TD 6 FPTS/G 10.7

Courtland Sutton WR DEN Denver • #14 Age: 30 • Experience: 9 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 74 TAR 124 REYDS 1017 TD 7 FPTS/G 10.8

Jordan Addison WR MIN Minnesota • #3 Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 42 TAR 79 REYDS 610 TD 4 FPTS/G 9.7

Tier 8

Round 8 in half-PPR

Josh Downs WR IND Indianapolis • #2 Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 58 TAR 88 REYDS 566 TD 4 FPTS/G 6.7

Wan'Dale Robinson WR TEN Tennessee • #4 Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 92 TAR 140 REYDS 1014 TD 4 FPTS/G 10.7

Michael Wilson WR ARI Arizona • #14 Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 78 TAR 126 REYDS 1006 TD 7 FPTS/G 10.7

Quentin Johnston WR LAC L.A. Chargers • #1 Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 51 TAR 84 REYDS 735 TD 8 FPTS/G 10.4

Jakobi Meyers WR JAC Jacksonville • #3 Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 75 TAR 110 REYDS 835 TD 3 FPTS/G 8.6

Michael Pittman WR PIT Pittsburgh • #11 Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 80 TAR 111 REYDS 784 TD 7 FPTS/G 9.6

Tier 9

Round 9 in half-PPR

KC Concepcion WR CLE Cleveland • #1 Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie

Xavier Worthy WR KC Kansas City • #1 Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 42 TAR 73 REYDS 532 TD 1 FPTS/G 6.4

Jayden Reed WR GB Green Bay • #11 Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 19 TAR 22 REYDS 207 TD 1 FPTS/G 5.6

Jordyn Tyson WR NO New Orleans Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie

DK Metcalf WR PIT Pittsburgh • #4 Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 59 TAR 99 REYDS 850 TD 7 FPTS/G 10.5

Solid Backups

Rounds 10+ in half-PPR

Deebo Samuel WR SF San Francisco • #19 Age: 30 • Experience: 8 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 72 TAR 99 REYDS 727 TD 6 FPTS/G 11.8

Jalen Coker WR CAR Carolina • #18 Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 33 TAR 43 REYDS 394 TD 3 FPTS/G 6.7

Matthew Golden WR GB Green Bay Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 29 TAR 44 REYDS 361 TD 0 FPTS/G 4.0

Jalen Nailor WR LV Las Vegas • #9 Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 29 TAR 53 REYDS 444 TD 4 FPTS/G 5.1

Makai Lemon WR PHI Philadelphia • #9 Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie

Stefon Diggs WR WAS Washington • #3 Age: 32 • Experience: 12 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 85 TAR 102 REYDS 1013 TD 4 FPTS/G 9.9

Rashid Shaheed WR SEA Seattle • #22 Age: 28 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 59 TAR 92 REYDS 687 TD 2 FPTS/G 7.1

Romeo Doubs WR NE New England • #87 Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs. 2025 Stats REC 55 TAR 85 REYDS 724 TD 6 FPTS/G 8.6