Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
More Week 11 content:
On the year, the only quarterback to hammer the Eagles was Baker Mayfield. Every other passer has had 21 or less Fantasy points, and since the Eagles' Week 5 bye, no quarterback has had more than 18 Fantasy points. But Daniels provides an interesting test -- he's obviously a dual-threat with a terrific arm, but he also figures to have his offensive line at close to full strength for the first time in three weeks. Can they hold up just enough to give Daniels time to make clutch throws? They better because in five games since their bye, the Eagles have allowed 3.8 yards per rush, an 8.8% 10-plus-yard rush rate, and one rushing touchdown to running backs.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin
STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr. (low-end No. 2 RB), Eagles DST
FLEX: DeVonta Smith (borderline No. 2/3 WR)
SITS: Dallas Goedert (borderline starter), Austin Ekeler (bye-week RB), Zach Ertz (bye-week TE), Noah Brown, Commanders DST
Thomas Brown takes over as Chicago's playcaller, tasked with making Caleb Williams more effective and restoring the run game -- both behind a depleted offensive line. My hunch is that the Bears will try building around their run game as best as they can while also giving Caleb Williams shorter, quicker, easier throws so he's not holding the ball for three seconds before getting walloped. He was on that pathway in Weeks 4 through 6, averaging 5.7 Air Yards per throw with a 74.1% completion percentage. In three games after the bye, those numbers ballooned to 9.2 Air Yards with a 50.5% completion rate. No doubt the Packers will apply pressure, but they've really scaled back their blitzing save for their last game when they trailed the Lions. It'll be more important for them to stifle the run game since they've allowed 4.6 yards per rush over their past four matchups, with 13.2% of the runs good for 10-plus yards. If the Bears re-dedicate themselves to the run with play-action off of it, they might be able to actually hang in this matchup.
STARTS: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, D'Andre Swift, Tucker Kraft (low-end starter), Packers DST (one-week option)
FLEX: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed
SITS: Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore (low-end flex at best), Christian Watson (bye-week WR), Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet (bye-week TE), Roschon Johnson (desperation bye-week RB), Bears DST
Brian Thomas Jr. is in trouble -- Mac Jones' arm strength was an issue last week, as was his pass protection. His longest throw in terms of Air Yards went 43 yards and was intercepted; his second-longest throw went 18 Air Yards and should have been a Gabe Davis touchdown if he had put more mustard on it. This combination is bad for all Jaguars pass-catchers but, especially Thomas, who hasn't seen more than five targets in any of his past four games and, honestly, didn't run with the same speed and effort on his routes in Week 10 as I've seen before.
Jameson Williams is an interesting option if Sam LaPorta doesn't play. He's played all but 79 snaps this season with LaPorta on the field, but in those 79 snaps, his target per route run rate exploded to 28.1% compared to 15.4% when LaPorta is present. Jacksonville's defense played their second-most zone coverage of the year last week at 75%, and they've been trending away from man-to-man coverage in most of their past five overall. They've also rarely blitzed, which is a good thing for every quarterback, but certainly Jared Goff. I wouldn't rule out a couple of deep shots to Williams against the Jaguars, who rank in the bottom eight in defensive EPA per pass, yards per attempt, yards after catch per reception, and overall completions of 20-plus yards (14 is the most in the NFL) over the past four weeks.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Evan Engram, Lions DST
FLEX: Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas Jr., Jameson Williams
SITS: Mac Jones, D'Ernest Johnson, Gabe Davis, Brock Wright (bye-week TE if Sam LaPorta is out), Jaguars DST
The Colts saw Kyler Murray run for two touchdowns against the Jets last week, and they've seen quarterbacks tally at least 50 rush yards and/or at least one score against the Jets in each of New York's past five games. So why not go back to Richardson and use one of his most natural traits as a runner? Seems reasonable. And look, Richardson may have needed a multi-week break to re-earn some credibility after he backed out of a play in Week 8. He was going to get back on the field eventually anyway, but he just might be the best guy to help deliver a win against the Jets because of his rushing prowess, which frankly has been missing from his game for most of this season. This is a matchup to bring it back.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall
STARTS: Garrett Wilson (No. 2 WR), Davante Adams (No. 2 WR)
FLEX: Josh Downs (low-end No. 2 WR in PPR)
SITS: Anthony Richardson (stash), Aaron Rodgers, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, Tyler Conklin, Colts DST, Jets DST
The most obvious difference between Tyreek Hill's game with Tua Tagovailoa this year and last year is the volume. In 2023, he averaged 10.5 targets per game with a massive 36.2% target per route run rate, this year, he's down to 7.2 targets per game with a 24.2% target per route run rate. And it's that volume that's getting sucked up by De'Von Achane and other Dolphins players (not enough by Jaylen Waddle), combined with Tagovailoa's more cautious passing, that's driven down the numbers for everybody. So, while Tagovailoa's not firing deep as much, Hill is still running deeper routes than he did last year and isn't seeing as many targets nor catching as many deep balls. I would not expect that to flip this week even though they're playing the Raiders -- Las Vegas is bottom-10 in RB rush yards per carry (4.6), 10-plus rush rate, and yards after contact per rush, and is top-six in yards per catch allowed, yards after catch per reception allowed, completions of 20-plus yards allowed and touchdowns allowed against passes of 15-plus Air Yards.
OBVIOUS STARTS: De'Von Achane
STARTS: Jakobi Meyers, Tyreek Hill (No. 2 WR), Brock Bowers, Dolphins DST (low-end option)
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle (PPR), Alexander Mattison (PPR)
SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (bye-week QB), Gardner Minshew, Jonnu Smith (bye-week TE), Raheem Mostert, Zamir White, Raiders DST
New England's pass rush went berserk last week against a downtrodden Bears offensive line and hold-heavy QB Caleb Williams. They'll be hard-pressed to pull off nine sacks and a rambunctious 39% pass rush pressure rate against the Rams, though it's not like L.A.'s O-line was any good last week -- they allowed a pressure on 34.7% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks. Just remember: The Pats had the fourth-fewest sacks in the league entering last week, and six of the nine sacks they had came after Williams held the ball for at least 2.5 seconds. The Rams should prioritize getting the ball out quickly on timing patterns to their top receivers, but they should also refocus on the run game since New England still has a worse-than-average 11.4% 10-yard rush rate allowed and gives up 4.6 yards per carry on the season.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
STARTS: Rhamondre Stevenson (low-end No. 2 RB), Hunter Henry (low-end starter)
SITS: Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, Demario Douglas (bye-week PPR WR), Demarcus Robinson, Davis Allen, Rams DST (bye-week option), Patriots DST
The Saints now own the worst mark in the league in yards per carry to running backs at 5.2. They're also dead-last in defensive rush EPA and five-plus-yard rush rate allowed (44.3%!) but only second-worst in rushing touchdowns allowed with 12. Expect the Browns to notice and try to grind away at the Saints with a big dose of Nick Chubb, who should be fresh and as close as he can be to his old form coming off the bye. Of the eight running backs with at least 14 carries against New Orleans this season, six have at least 80 rush yards, and all eight have at least one touchdown.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Alvin Kamara
STARTS: Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Browns DST
FLEX: Cedric Tillman (low-end No. 2 PPR WR)
SITS: Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Jerome Ford, Taysom Hill (low-end starter in non-PPR), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (bye-week WR), Elijah Moore, Saints DST
History says this matchup will be physical and low-scoring. The make-up of each team suggests something totally different. Baltimore's offense ranks top-five in pretty much every category imaginable, including first in offensive points per game (31.2), scoring at least 28 points in 7 of its past 8. While Pittsburgh's pass rush is clearly awesome, the data suggests they're closer to the middle of the pack in pass rush pressure rate, sack rate, and even total sacks. Pair that with a good but not dominant run defense, and the Ravens should be expected to get some good gains on the ground and use their play-action game to hammer the Steelers downfield.
It's to be determined if the Steelers match the Ravens offense punch for punch, but they almost certainly won't be able to do it running the ball. The Commanders, who entered last week allowing 5.2 yards per rush, held Najee Harris to 2.5 yards per rush and held Jaylen Warren to 4.2 yards per rush until his final three carries in the fourth quarter gained 20 yards but included a fumble. Baltimore figures to be just as punishing -- they've kept running backs to 3.2 yards per carry on the season with a jarring 2.8% rate of 10-plus-yard runs allowed. I think that will push the ball into Russell Wilson's hands more, and given the issues in Baltimore's secondary, along with their good-but-not-fierce pass rush, Wilson could put some numbers up to give the Steelers a shot at staying close.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry
STARTS: Russell Wilson (low-end starter), George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
FLEX: Jaylen Warren (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: Najee Harris, Rashod Bateman (bye-week WR), Diontae Johnson (stash), Mike Williams, Pat Freiermuth, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill, Nelson Agholor, Ravens DST, Steelers DST (stash)
Calvin Ridley has re-emerged as a borderline must-start Fantasy receiver, even if his quarterback brings a double-edged sword to his Fantasy value. After watching his routes from last week, there's no denying Ridley's own talent -- he's still very fast with really good agility. He can get open with speed or footwork. His coaching staff clearly recognizes this and has given him a steady dose of at least eight targets per week in his last five games. That's enough volume to negate some of the downside Will Levis brings; Levis is aggressive and strong-armed, but his timing with Ridley still isn't consistent, nor is his ability to locate him deep when there's pressure on him. And you can be sure the Vikings will bring plenty of pressure -- only the Broncos blitz more than the Vikings. None of that is enough to completely back off from Ridley, especially since Minnesota is still among the bottom three in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, especially those that line up wide.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones
STARTS: Sam Darnold, Tony Pollard, T.J. Hockenson, Vikings DST
SITS: Will Levis, Jordan Addison (bye-week WR), Tyjae Spears (bye-week PPR RB), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (desperation WR), Cam Akers, Titans DST
While Kirk Cousins' numbers stunk for Fantasy managers because he didn't complete any touchdowns (or throw more than one end-zone target), he really continued to throw well despite a lack of pass rush pressure. That's been a trend for a few weeks now, but it should end this week against the Broncos, who, at 42.6%, own the highest blitz rate of any defense in the league. Naturally, they're third-best in pass rush pressure rate (39.5% of dropbacks) and sack the quarterback at a fourth-best 9.6% rate. This spells bad news for Cousins, but this is just half of the problem for Drake London: Not only is London scoreless and has a lower target per route run rate when Cousins is pressured (20.7% compared to 28.2% when he's not), but the Broncos have been excellent against bigger No. 1 receivers all season long. The matchup is considerably better for Darnell Mooney, who has scored four of his five touchdowns when Cousins has been pressured.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson
STARTS: Bo Nix (low-end starter), Courtland Sutton, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Broncos DST
FLEX: Drake London
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Audric Estime (bye-week RB), Javonte Williams (desperation RB), Tyler Allgeier, Jaleel McLaughlin, Falcons DST
How much should you buy into Jaxon Smith-Njigba after his colossal Week 9? Well, he's never posted 15-plus PPR points in consecutive games, though he has posted 12-plus PPR points in back-to-back games twice already this season. Also, two of his three career games with 15-plus PPR points have come without DK Metcalf on the field. Naturally, you'll start him if Metcalf is out this week, but his track record playing alongside Metcalf isn't great. There's also the matchup: Just four wideouts have crossed the 15-point PPR mark against the Niners this year, and the only one who lined up in the slot on more than half of his snaps was CeeDee Lamb. That's a problem for Smith-Njigba, who is a slot-heavy wideout who will see a lot of quality cornerback Deommodore Lenoir. Additionally, Geno Smith has had heaps of trouble with the Niners (0 for 5 in finding 21-plus Fantasy points against them).
OBVIOUS STARTS: Christian McCaffrey
STARTS: Brock Purdy, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings (low-end No. 2 WR), George Kittle, 49ers DST
FLEX: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (PPR), Ricky Pearsall
SITS: Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett (bye-week WR), Zach Charbonnet, Jordan Mason, Seahawks DST
Last week, Alec Pierce became just the fifth wide receiver to get more than 15 PPR points against the Bills this season, and it was thanks to a garbage-time jump-ball for a red-zone touchdown. Tight ends have suffered similar fates against the Bills, including big-name guys like Trey McBride and Mark Andrews. Point is, the Bills pass defense combined with their low-blitz, high-pressure pass rush is a dangerous combination. Patrick Mahomes has already had trouble with the Bills in his past two against them, failing to score more than 22 Fantasy points either time. Mahomes has been over 22 Fantasy points twice all season, and Buffalo has let up 20-plus to a quarterback just three times (Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers with help from a Hail Mary, and 21 points to Tua Tagovailoa).
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook, Travis Kelce
STARTS: Kareem Hunt, Khalil Shakir (low-end No. 2 WR), Dawson Knox (borderline starter), Bills DST, Chiefs DST (do not drop them)
FLEX: Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins (PPR)
SITS: Patrick Mahomes (borderline starter), Xavier Worthy (bye-week WR), JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ray Davis
Gus Edwards looked spry for an older runner in his first game back last week, but he still played sparingly while J.K. Dobbins led the Chargers both in playing time and red-zone snaps. The development bears watching, but Cincinnati's run defense has held enemy running backs to 3.4 yards per carry and a 5.9% rate of 10-plus rushing yards. Getting B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins healthy has helped. I'm not sure this will ultimately matter because the Chargers run so much that they ultimately find numbers, but it could be tougher than normal for Dobbins and Edwards. There's also the chance Edwards takes more snaps from Dobbins after playing just 15 snaps in Week 10.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase
STARTS: Justin Herbert, Chase Brown, J.K. Dobbins, Tee Higgins (assuming he's active), Chargers DST
FLEX: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston
SITS: Gus Edwards (bye-week RB), Will Dissly (bye-week TE), Mike Gesicki, Josh Palmer, Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton, Bengals DST
Dallas' offense was an absolute mess last week. Cooper Rush was getting the ball out real fast, his timing with his receivers wasn't particularly good, and when he did have good timing, there was either an Eagles defender or a bright burst of sunlight to run a play afoul. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy expressed interest in throwing downfield more this week against Houston. That may not work out -- the Texans have allowed just a 32.4% catch rate and 9.4 yards per attempt on throws of 15-plus Air Yards over their last four games. Any addition to the Texans pass rush (meaning the return of Will Anderson) would make the day tougher for Rush, but high-volume short-area receivers like Josh Downs, Davante Adams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown each punctured the Texans for at least 18 PPR points over the past three weeks.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Mixon
STARTS: Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb (No. 2 WR), Jake Ferguson (low-end starter in PPR), Texans DST (multi-week option)
FLEX: Tank Dell, Rico Dowdle
SITS: C.J. Stroud, Cooper Rush, Jalen Tolbert (desperation bye-week WR), John Metchie, Dalton Schultz, Cowboys DST