Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Derrick Henry. You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
More Week 5 content:
- Dave Richard's Week 5 Trade Chart
- Heath Cummings' Full Week 5 Projections
- Week 5 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Dave Richard's Week 5 Lineup Decisions
- Jamey Eisenberg's Week 5 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Bucky Irving's strengths and style of play mesh much better with the Falcons' zone-scheme run defense problems than Rachaad White's. I would expect a split with White, the safer PPR back of the two, but the matchup, the short-week factor, and Irving's fresher legs do offer some gaudy appeal. On the other side of the ball, I anticipate the Falcons trying to take advantage of K.J. Britt being pressed into action. He's a good run-stopping linebacker but has been a liability in coverage for years. He's the kind of guy who could lose matchups against Bijan Robinson, especially if Lavonte David is covering Kyle Pitts.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin,
STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White (PPR preferred), Bucky Irving (non-PPR preferred), Drake London, Cade Otton (PPR preferred)
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Tyler Allgeier (low-end RB bye-week replacement), Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Falcons DST, Buccaneers DST
We're due for a down game for Sam Darnold, but is this the game? The Jets have held each of the four quarterbacks they've faced to 12 or fewer Fantasy points, but the best quarterback they've taken on was Brock Purdy. It can be argued that Darnold is better in terms of explosiveness and efficiency, and he's helped by a great group of receivers, a solid O-line, and an aggressive playcaller. And it also helps he's rarely blitzed, though that does have a lot to do with who he's played. That's actually a key to this matchup: The Jets run a defensive scheme similar to that of the 49ers and Texans, two teams Darnold has beat up on. These teams tend to play much more zone coverage than man-to-man, save for select third downs, and only the Texans have blitzed a lot in multiple games. This should mean Darnold will continue to not get blitzed and can keep doing what he's been doing -- selectively targeting receivers without rushing his process. He's not a slam-dunk start, but against a Jets defense that could neither pressure nor sack Bo Nix last week, Darnold should be decent.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Breece Hall, Justin Jefferson
STARTS: Sam Darnold (low-end No. 1 QB), Aaron Jones, Garrett Wilson (No. 2 WR), Tyler Conklin (streaming TE), Vikings DST, Jets DST
FLEX: Jordan Addison
SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Braelon Allen (low-end RB bye-week replacement), Ty Chandler, Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, Jalen Nailor
Chicago rediscovered their run game against a soft run defense last week and should go right back to it against another soft run defense this week. D'Andre Swift played 2/3rds of the team's snaps and added a new wrinkle into his role: catching passes. He nabbed seven balls from Caleb Williams, who finally realized it was OK to checkdown to his running back if his targets weren't open downfield. Swift also had three designed plays through the air that were effective. Above all, Swift looked great and finally had a game with not only a strong rushing average (5.8 yards per carry) but an exceptional average of yards before contact (3.94 yards). It might be fleeting, but against a Panthers defense that got gashed by Chase Brown and Zack Moss last week (and by four other RBs in their three games prior), Swift should be considered trustworthy.
STARTS: Diontae Johnson, Chuba Hubbard, D'Andre Swift (No. 2 RB), D.J. Moore, Bears DST
FLEX: Xavier Legette, Keenan Allen (low-end flex),
SITS: Andy Dalton, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Colt Kmet (streaming TE), Roschon Johnson (low-end RB bye-week replacement), Miles Sanders, Panthers DST
The Bengals have the lowest defensive rush success rate in the league, which is a big signal to the Ravens coaching staff that running the ball should continue to mean good things. Not that it'll mean good things for the Ravens' receivers: With Derrick Henry crushing defenses over his past three games (at least 4.7 yards per carry in each), none of the Ravens pass-catchers have averaged even 10 PPR points. Flowers have seven touches and 22.1 PPR points against the Raiders but 7.3 PPR points in Weeks 3 and 4 combined. You already know Andrews and Likely have been left with scraps. I'm worried this week's game script will be like the past two, making all of the Ravens' pass-catchers touchdown-dependent.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Ja'Marr Chase,
STARTS: Tee Higgins (low-end No. 2 WR), Zay Flowers (low-end No. 2 WR), Ravens DST (low-end DST)
FLEX: Zack Moss, Justice Hill (PPR only)
SITS: Joe Burrow (borderline low-end QB), Chase Brown (stash him!!), Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Mike Gesicki, Bengals DST
The Ravens had a great mix of pass rush pressure and sticky cornerbacks to stymie Josh Allen last week. I'm not sure the Texans can do the same, even if they have a higher sack rate than the Ravens. Houston's pass rush came away with a 17.1% pass rush pressure rate versus Jacksonville, even though they blitzed on nearly half of their snaps. Some of that had to do with Trevor Lawrence getting the ball out quickly, but it's a little concerning. Also concerning is a secondary that has a stud in Derek Stingley but no one else that could stay in close proximity to other Bills players. Houston's zone-heavy approach will keep Allen from beating them deep (Baltimore did that a lot, too), but he can still find ways to rack up first downs. Jimmie Ward will help if he returns.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook, Nico Collins
STARTS: C.J. Stroud, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid
SITS: Cam Akers, Tank Dell (low-end flex), Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Schultz, Bills DST, Texans DST
The tenor of the whole Colts offense changed last week when Joe Flacco came in. The playcalling was aggressive, they didn't run too much, and notable target shares included 33.3% for Josh Downs, 25% for Michael Pittman, and 17% for Jonathan Taylor. Taylor is out this week, making the situation even better for Flacco to go full-bombs away against an inferior Jaguars pass defense down its top cornerback and allowing huge numbers in consecutive weeks to Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud. Obviously Flacco isn't on their level, but a 20-point Fantasy result wouldn't be out of the question for him, with strong PPR games for his receivers. Best of all, it's not like the Colts defense can slow anyone down either, so we could be in for a high-scoring shoot-out.
STARTS: Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence (low-end No. 1 QB), Travis Etienne (No. 2 RB), Michael Pittman, Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 2 WR), Christian Kirk (PPR option; flex option in non-PPR), Trey Sermon (borderline No. 2/3 RB)
FLEX: Josh Downs
SITS: Tank Bigsby, Tyler Goodson, Gabe Davis, Alec Pierce, Jaguars DST, Colts DST
Tyler Huntley looked pretty much how a quarterback who had just joined an offense six days earlier would look. He had minimal timing down with his receivers, and his arm wasn't really very good until the second half when he just barely overthrew Tyreek Hill on a deep ball that would have been a 77-yard touchdown. He would connect on shorter throws throughout, but there was a clear inconsistency to his accuracy and velocity. Another week with the Dolphins might help him get ready, though this Patriots defense was only beat up by Aaron Rodgers through the first four weeks, and that came thanks to his precise and quick passing. Rodgers was also well protected, something Huntley was not last week. Five receivers have had at least 11 PPR points against the Patriots over the last three weeks, and outside receivers have had better metrics than slot receivers. Maybe Hill won't be so bad.
STARTS: De'Von Achane, Rhamondre Stevenson (low-end No. 2 RB), Tyreek Hill (No. 2 WR)
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle, Antonio Gibson
SITS: Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Huntley, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Wright, Kendrick Bourne (stash in PPR), Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Patriots DST, Dolphins DST
Did the Commanders defense come alive last week? Though they didn't blitz Kyler Murray much, their front created pressure on 37% of his dropbacks and sacked him four times. If it's because they feasted on a bad offensive line, then the same thing could happen this week against a Browns unit down potentially four starters. It could be enough to implode the Browns offense and turn this into a one-sided matchup where Jayden Daniels eventually hits some downfield throws, and the Commanders run game finds some second-half gains against this still-good Browns defense.
STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Jerome Ford (low-end option), Amari Cooper, Terry McLaurin, Commanders DST
FLEX: Jerry Jeudy, Austin Ekeler
SITS: Deshaun Watson, Zach Ertz (streaming TE), Browns DST
It looks like Alexander Mattison will become the Raiders new lead running back. He's averaged two more yards per rush than Zamir White and is ahead of him in every single metric, including explosive rush rate (17.6% to 4.1%) and avoided tackle rate (23.5% to 14.3%). Mattison has also been the better back in passing situations. Carrying it over into a feature role where he's getting a large number of rushes might make Mattison look more like his former self, and the matchup against the Broncos won't help. This run defense just stuffed Breece Hall last week and the Bucs running backs the week before. In fact, outside of a long TD run by Kenneth Walker, this has been a really good run defense -- so much so that running backs have had 11 or fewer PPR points against them in their past three games. Mattison is an interesting stash but not anything more than a flex or bye-week replacement.
STARTS: Javonte Williams (borderline No. 2 RB in PPR), Brock Bowers, Broncos DST
FLEX: Alexander Mattison, Courtland Sutton (high-end No. 3 WR), Jakobi Meyers
SITS: Bo Nix, Gardner Minshew, Tre Tucker (low-end bye-week WR), Jaleel McLaughlin (stash), Zamir White, Davante Adams, Raiders DST
Only against the Rams in Week 2, with their heavy zone coverage and minimal blitz and pass rush pressure rates, did Murray post a big game this season. He's otherwise been a disappointment, as defenses have not gone crazy with the blitzing but have still gotten pressure on him. That's precisely what the 49ers have done in their meetings with Murray through the years, and it's led to poor results for the quarterback. He's only played them once in the last two-and-a-half seasons, and he was awful, but you'd have to go back to 2020 to find his last big game against the Niners, and it involved a lot of rushing. He hasn't thrown two touchdowns on the Niners since 2019. Now he'll see the Niners with a still-shaky offensive line and Murray himself holding the ball just a little bit too long. The only quarterback to get a decent game against the 49ers was Sam Darnold in Week 2, when he had 23 Fantasy points thanks to a 32-yard rushing game.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jordan Mason, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr.
STARTS: Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk (No. 2 WR), George Kittle, Trey McBride, 49ers DST
FLEX: Jauan Jennings (PPR option)
SITS: Kyler Murray (high-end No. 2 QB), Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Cardinals DST
The Rams actually rank fifth-best in pass rush pressure rate despite calling blitzes at the seventh-lowest rate. You'd think that's a dangerous combination for Love to deal with, especially since he's completed only 34.5% of his passes at 6.8 yards per attempt with a 10.3% off-target rate when pressured. But both Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy were pressured a good amount by the Rams, and they both left the matchup with at least three passing touchdowns and 31 Fantasy points. I'll admit that L.A.'s secondary played mostly well last week, and their young rushers are starting to make an impact, but this is an easier matchup for Love than last week's, and he should be able to come through with some success.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams
STARTS: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs (my favorite buy-low this week), Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Packers DST
FLEX: Dontayvion Wicks, Tutu Atwell (low-end flex)
SITS: Matthew Stafford, Emanuel Wilson, Jordan Whittington (low-end bye-week WR replacement), Demarcus Robinson (low-end bye-week WR replacement), Colby Parkinson, Rams DST
This should be a monster game for Kenneth Walker III. New York has allowed 5.1 yards per carry on the season, including 4.1 to the lowly Cowboys last week. If the Seahawks were able to gain ground on the Lions on Monday, they should certainly be able to do so in this matchup at home. What's that mean for the rest of the offense? Usually, the more work Walker gets, the worse Geno Smith's Fantasy production is. And Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a decent game last week in a shootout and a monster game in Week 2 when the Seattle run game was inefficient. Smith-Njigba has just two career games over 15 PPR points and five with over 13 PPR points. New York also ranks top-three in yards per catch, yards after catch per reception, and PPR points allowed to receivers who line up in the slot, which is where Smith-Njigba lines up a lot.
OBVIOUS STARTS: DK Metcalf
STARTS: Kenneth Walker, Seahawks DST
FLEX: Wan'Dale Robinson (PPR only), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (PPR only)
SITS: Geno Smith (low-end starter), Daniel Jones, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Zach Charbonnet, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant, Giants DST
Without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, the Cowboys pass rush figures to be toothless. Veteran Carl Lawson and rookie Marshawn Kneeland might be their best remaining rushers. All this means is that Justin Fields shouldn't feel much pass rush pressure unless the Cowboys start sending blitzes, which wouldn't be unusual for Mike Zimmer but may become absolutely necessary. When pressured this year, Justin Fields has completed 54% of his throws, but his yards per attempt, average depth of throw (ADOT), and off-target rate are all better than when he's not pressured. That's weird. Ultimately, Fields was the same inconsistent quarterback last week as he's been his whole career, but he got rolling in the second half and cashed in for a couple of rushing scores. He's as boom-or-bust as they come, but the matchup is much more favorable now that the Cowboys pass rush is depleted.
OBVIOUS STARTS: CeeDee Lamb
STARTS: Dak Prescott, Justin Fields (low-end starter), Najee Harris (No. 2 RB), George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Pat Freiermuth, Steelers DST
FLEX: Rico Dowdle (non-PPR option)
SITS: Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Tolbert (stash), Cowboys DST
Just how bad has it been for Patrick Mahomes' stats?
some Patrick Mahomes stats ... pic.twitter.com/gtKTABlOfU
— #AskFFT (@daverichard) October 2, 2024
As mentioned, he's getting the opportunities to throw, but the combination of defenses and his own personnel have done a good job taking away big-time throws. He even hit one last week for a touchdown and still finished with 15 Fantasy points. The Saints have played the fifth-most man-to-man coverage this season, getting fantastic play out of their cornerbacks. This won't be the first team to play primarily man coverage against the Chiefs this year -- Mahomes saw a bunch of it against the Ravens in Week 1 and wasn't bad (291 yards, but one touchdown). This defense has done well against Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts and deserves credit for being stingy. Until the Chiefs find more speed for their offense, assume plenty of dinking and dunking. That could work out well for Travis Kelce and maybe even JuJu Smith-Schuster, who I would bet on to be a lineup replacement for Rice.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Alvin Kamara
STARTS: Chris Olave, Travis Kelce, Chiefs DST, Saints DST
FLEX: Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy (low-end non-PPR flex)
SITS: Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, Samaje Perine (low-end RB bye-week replacement), JuJu Smith-Schuster (stash)
Who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising running back could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week Fantasy rankings for every position, plus see which RB comes out of nowhere to crack the top five, all from the model that has outperformed experts big-time.
