Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
More Week 18 content:
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Ravens win AFC North and No. 3 seed with a win. Cleveland is in contention for a top-five pick in the draft.
Milestones to watch: Lamar Jackson already has career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns, but he is 45 passing yards shy of 4,000 and one passing touchdown shy of 40. ... Derrick Henry is 47 yards shy of 2,000 total on the season and 217 rushing yards away from 2,000.
The Ravens actually lost to the Browns back in Week 8 in a back-and-forth game. In that game, the Browns went with more zone coverage than we had seen for most of their games before, and they also generated pass rush pressure on 51.2% of Jackson's dropbacks but still gave him an average of 3.5 seconds to throw. If that's to happen again, then Zay Flowers' struggles will continue. Flowers has had 15-plus PPR points just once in his past seven, and it was 15.3 points. Recently, his average depth of target has risen, making him more of a boom-bust option for the Ravens and not a reliable guy for Jackson to hit in the red zone. In their past five games, Flowers has one red-zone target while Mark Andrews has seven with six end-zone targets and five touchdowns. Andrews also made in-roads on the short- and medium-range throws that Flowers got a lot of. And it doesn't help that Flowers' season-long target per route run rate has shrunk from 37.6% to 21.6% when Jackson has 2.5 or more seconds to throw. One sleeper in this game: Justice Hill, who could pick up work to keep Derrick Henry's workload a little light before the playoffs. Plus, he has a 22.9% target per route run rate in his past four games against zone coverage ... and it's even higher against man-to-man coverage.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry
STARTS: Mark Andrews, Ravens DST
FLEX: Jerry Jeudy (PPR), Zay Flowers, Justice Hill (desperation PPR flex)
SITS: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Rashod Bateman, D'Onta Foreman, Jordan Akins, Isaiah Likely, Elijah Moore, Browns DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Bengals make the playoffs with a win and losses on Sunday by the Broncos and Dolphins. Steelers have a playoff spot secured but would win the AFC North and No. 3 seed with a win and a Ravens loss earlier on Saturday.
Milestones to watch: Ja'Marr Chase can land the "triple crown" by leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He is eight catches, 133 yards, and four touchdowns ahead of any other wide receiver. ... Joe Burrow already has career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns, but he is 359 passing yards away from 5,000. ... Tee Higgins is 142 yards shy of 1,000. ... Russell Wilson is 247 passing yards away from passing Vinny Testaverde for 16th on the all-time passing yards list. ... George Pickens is 100 receiving yards shy of 1,000.
Mike Tomlin really stressed changing things up this week in an effort to play better on both sides of the ball. I'm not sure what his defense can do to slow down the Bengals juggernaut, but it'll help if the Steelers run game rebounds. In their past three games, outside of garbage time, the Steelers have dialed up a pass at least 58.5% of the time. That's not at all how they started the year, nor how they rolled in the first couple of Russell Wilson's starts. This is the matchup for it: Cincinnati has allowed 4.9 yards per carry, a huge 14.4% 10-yard rush rate, and four RBs of 15-plus PPR points, including Najee Harris in Week 13. I would expect more runs dialed up, but I would expect a split -- Jaylen Warren and Harris have been even or darn close to it in first-half runs in each of their past four games, and it's been Warren who's been unquestionably better both in those first-halves (5.8 yards per carry to Harris' 3.7) and overall (4.9 to 4.2).
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
STARTS: Russell Wilson (low-end starter), George Pickens, Jaylen Warren (No. 2 RB), Najee Harris (low-end No. 2 RB), Mike Gesicki (low-end PPR TE), Pat Freiermuth (low-end non-PPR TE)
SITS: Andrei Iosivas, Calvin Austin, Steelers DST, Bengals DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Falcons make the playoffs with a win and a loss by the Buccaneers on Sunday. Carolina might barely have a top-10 pick in the draft if they win.
Milestones to watch: Bijan Robinson is 114 rush yards away from 1,400. ... Darnell Mooney is eight receiving yards away from 1,000 and 64 receiving yards away from a new career-high.
Bryce Young's past two games against the Cardinals and Buccaneers have been examples of how he's improved: No interceptions, clean downfield throws, low off-target rates, and, in the case of last week, aggressive passing. And he'll still handle most of the offense for the Panthers because their run game is down to nubs. All of that should help him against an aggressive Falcons pass rush that sacked Jayden Daniels five times last week but still let up three touchdowns. Bad quarterbacks like Desmond Ridder and Drew Lock struggled with the Falcons, but Daniels and Sam Darnold showed they can be beat. Obviously, expect Young to settle somewhere in between, which this week makes him a decent option if you're without your usual starter.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson
STARTS: Drake London, Adam Thielen, Falcons DST
FLEX: Darnell Mooney
SITS: Bryce Young (high-end No. 2 QB), Michael Penix Jr., Kyle Pitts, Raheem Blackshear, Mike Boone, Ray-Ray McCloud, Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, Tyler Allgeier, Panthers DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Commanders have a playoff spot secured and would clinch the No. 6 seed with a win (thus avoiding Philadelphia in the first round). Dallas is locked into a pick somewhere between 11th and 17th overall.
Milestones to watch: Brian Robinson is nine rushing yards away from a new career-high and 58 total yards away from 1,000. ... Rico Dowdle is one touchdown away from a new career-high.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jayden Daniels
STARTS: Terry McLaurin, Rico Dowdle, Brian Robinson Jr. (low-end No. 2 RB), Commanders DST
FLEX: Olamide Zaccheaus
SITS: Cooper Rush, Zach Ertz (borderline TE), Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson, Chris Rodriguez, Jeremy McNichols, Cowboys DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Packers have a playoff spot secured and would clinch the No. 6 seed with a win and a Commanders loss. Otherwise, they're the No. 7 seed. Chicago is locked into a pick somewhere between fifth and 10th overall.
Milestones to watch: D.J. Moore is 120 receiving yards away from 1,000. ... Jayden Reed is 31 total yards away from 1,000.
The line on this game ballooned from minus-3.5 to minus-9 in favor of the Packers, a signal that the oddsmakers believe the team will play their starters for the whole game. That would deviate from what Matt LaFleur did the last time he had nothing to play for in the finale when he gave his backups the second half. Just to be safe, if you believe your top Packers players can do well in a half-to-three quarters of play, start them confidently.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Jacobs
STARTS: Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore (low-end No. 2 PPR WR), D'Andre Swift (low-end No. 2 RB), Tucker Kraft, Packers DST (low-end DST)
SITS: Caleb Williams (high-end No. 2 QB), Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs (low-end PPR flex), Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Bears DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Jacksonville has a shot to pick in the top five in the NFL Draft if they lose. Indianapolis is locked into a pick somewhere between 11th and 17th overall.
Milestones to watch: Joe Flacco is two touchdowns away from passing Derek Carr for 22nd on the all-time passing touchdown list. ... Jonathan Taylor is 113 total yards away from 1,500. ... Josh Downs is 63 receiving yards shy of setting a new career-high.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Brian Thomas Jr.
FLEX: Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Travis Etienne (low-end flex)
SITS: Joe Flacco (borderline starter), Mac Jones, Josh Downs (desperation PPR WR), Tank Bigsby, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, Jaguars DST, Colts DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Bills have the No. 2 seed secured and intend to rest their starters. New England will clinch the No. 1 pick in the draft with a loss.
Milestones to watch: James Cook is 19 rush yards away from 1,000. ... Rhamondre Stevenson is 31 total yards away from 1,000.
STARTS: Hunter Henry (low-end TE)
FLEX: Rhamondre Stevenson
SITS: ALL BILLS INCLUDING THEIR DST, Drake Maye, Kayshon Boutte, Austin Hooper, Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Antonio Gibson, Patriots DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Eagles have the No. 2 seed secured and intend to rest their starters. New York is locked into a pick in the top 10 if not the top five.
Milestones to watch: Malik Nabers will enter Sunday four catches behind Brock Bowers for the all-time rookie receptions record.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Malik Nabers
STARTS: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (top-15 RB)
SITS: ALL EAGLES INCLUDING THEIR DST, Drew Lock, Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary, Dan Bellinger, Giants DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Buccaneers win NFC South with a win. They will either be the No. 3 or 4 seed, depending on how the Rams do. New Orleans is in contention for a top-11 pick in the draft.
Milestones to watch: Mike Evans is 85 yards away from his 11th straight 1,000-yard season. If he gets it, he'll have the second-longest streak of 1,000-yard seasons behind only Jerry Rice. ... Baker Mayfield already has career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns, but he is one passing touchdown away from 40.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Mike Evans
STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Juwan Johnson (low-end PPR TE), Buccaneers DST
FLEX: Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White
SITS: Spencer Rattler, Foster Moreau, Payne Durham, Dante Pettis, Cedrick Wilson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Saints DST
zPlayoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Texans have the No. 4 seed secured but plan to play their starters for at least part of the game. Tennessee is in contention for a top-five pick in the draft.
Milestones to watch: Joe Mixon is seven rushing yards away from 1,000. ... Nico Collins is 32 receiving yards away from 1,000. ... C.J. Stroud is 323 passing yards away from 4,000. ... Calvin Ridley is 59 receiving yards away from 1,000.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Nico Collins
STARTS: Joe Mixon (No. 2 RB), Dalton Schultz (low-end starter), Chig Okonkwo, Texans DST
FLEX: Calvin Ridley, Julius Chestnut (non-PPR)
SITS: C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, John Metchie, Robert Woods, Dare Ogunbowale, newest Texan Diontae Johnson, Titans DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: San Francisco will pick somewhere between 10th and 14th. Arizona will pick somewhere between 11th and 17th.
Milestones to watch: Marvin Harrison Jr. is one touchdown catch away from tying the franchise rookie record held by both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Two would obviously give him the record. Harrison Jr. is also 62 receiving yards away from the second-most yards by a rookie in franchise history.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Trey McBride, George Kittle
STARTS: Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. (borderline No. 2 WR), Isaac Guerendo (No. 2 RB), Michael Carter (low-end No. 2 RB)
FLEX: Jauan Jennings (PPR flex), Deebo Samuel (non-PPR flex)
SITS: Josh Dobbs, Michael Wilson, 49ers DST (borderline starter), Cardinals DST (borderline starter)
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Chiefs have the No. 2 seed secured and intend to rest their starters. Broncos make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed with a win. Broncos can also get the No. 7 seed if they lose with losses by the Dolphins and Bengals.
Milestones to watch: Courtland Sutton is 17 receiving yards away from 1,000 and 130 receiving yards away from a new career-high.
STARTS: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton (No. 1 WR), Broncos DST
SITS: ALL CHIEFS, INCLUDING THEIR DST, Jaleel McLaughlin (desperation RB), Javonte Williams (desperation PPR RB), Audric Estime, Adam Trautman, Devaughn Vele
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Rams have clinched the NFC West and would clinch the No. 3 seed with a win (and avoid the NFC North runner-up). However, it appears the Rams will rest their starters. Seattle is in contention for a pick somewhere between 15th and 18th.
Milestones to watch: Geno Smith needs 186 passing yards to set a new career-high. ... DK Metcalf is 61 receiving yards away from 1,000. ... Puka Nacua is 10 receiving yards away from 1,000.
STARTS: Geno Smith, Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks DST
FLEX: DK Metcalf, Blake Corum
SITS: Jimmy Garoppolo, Tyler Lockett, Jordan Whittington (desperation PPR WR), Tutu Atwell, Noah Fant, Rams DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Chargers have a playoff spot clinched. With a win and a Steelers loss on Saturday, they could be the No. 5 seed, which Jim Harbaugh expressed interest in getting. But if the Steelers win on Saturday, then the Chargers are locked into the No. 6 seed and might rest their starters. It will be very important to check the news on the Chargers leading up to their inactives on Sunday. Las Vegas is locked into a pick somewhere between fifth and 10th overall.
Milestones to watch: Brock Bowers will enter Sunday four catches ahead of Malik Nabers for the all-time rookie receptions record. ... JK Dobbins is 17 total yards away from 1,000.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Brock Bowers
STARTS: Justin Herbert (assuming he's active), J.K. Dobbins (assuming he's active), Ladd McConkey (assuming he's active), Jakobi Meyers, Ameer Abdullah (No. 2 RB), Chargers DST (assuming all starters are active), Raiders DST
SITS: Aidan O'Connell, Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, Will Dissly, Alexander Mattison
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: Dolphins make the playoffs with a win and a loss on Sunday by the Broncos. New York is locked into a pick somewhere between fifth and 10th overall.
Milestones to watch: Aaron Rodgers is one touchdown away from becoming the fifth quarterback in NFL history with 500 for his career. Davante Adams caught his 200th and 400th career touchdowns. Rodgers is also 115 passing yards away from moving past Matt Ryan for seventh on the all-time passing yards list. ... Tyreek Hill is 61 receiving yards away from 1,000. ... Garrett Wilson is 51 receiving yards away from a new single-season career-high.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith
STARTS: De'Von Achane, Breece Hall (No. 2 RB), Garrett Wilson, Dolphins DST
SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Tyler Huntley, Tyler Conklin, Allen Lazard, Malik Washington, Raheem Mostert, Braelon Allen, Jets DST
Playoff/NFL Draft scenarios: The winner of this game will clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. The loser of this game will be the No. 5 seed and hit the road for the first round of the playoffs next week.
Milestones to watch: Sam Darnold is one passing touchdown away from being second in single-season passing touchdowns in Vikings history. He could be first with five touchdowns. ... Jared Goff is 291 passing yards away from setting a new career high. That would also put him third on the Lions' all-time single-season passing yard list. He's five touchdowns away from tying Matthew Stafford for the single-season franchise record. ... Aaron Jones is 29 rushing yards away from setting a new single-season career high. He's also 88 total yards away from a new career-high. ... Justin Jefferson is one touchdown away from setting a new single-season career-high. He's also 154 receiving yards away from finishing with the second-best single-season receiving yards in Vikings history (he set the franchise record in 2022). ... Amon-Ra St. Brown would set the Lions single-season franchise record with 15 receptions. ... Jordan Addison is 125 receiving yards away from 1,000.
When these teams met in Week 7, they totaled 60 points and featured four players with at least 20 PPR points, not including the quarterbacks. Two players who didn't have a good game were Sam LaPorta and T.J. Hockenson. LaPorta had just two targets and one catch for 25 yards. Hockenson was still sidelined; Vikings tight ends combined for five receptions and 13 yards. In their past five games, both Detroit and Minnesota have allowed about 13 PPR points per game to tight ends, but Minnesota's seen easier matchups than the Lions. LaPorta's locked in at least 10 PPR points in five straight games and has been over 14 PPR in four of the five. His target volume has ramped up, and he's especially seen his target per route run rate boost to 23.5%, past all other Lions players over the past six weeks when Goff's had over 2.5 seconds to throw. Even against the Vikings, Goff should have time in the pocket because of his mammoth offensive line. Hockenson also sees more targets per route run when Sam Darnold has time to throw, but he doesn't lead the team like LaPorta does. I'd be concerned about Hockenson's contributions since he's no better than third in overall targets, red-zone targets, end-zone targets, and explosive plays among his teammates over the past six weeks.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Jordan Addison, Jameson Williams, Aaron Jones, Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson (low-end TE)
SITS: Jalen Nailor, Tim Patrick, Craig Reynolds, Lions DST, Vikings DST
