Ranking all 191 first-round NFL Draft picks since 2020: Best, worst selections of the decade

Deep in the heart of the offseason, I was inspired by an exercise I saw on the NFL Stock Exchange podcast with Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers to take a look back at draft history, specifically evaluating and ranking the first-round picks this decade.

With a list this large, being clear about the methodology is important. I decided to evaluate each decision from the team's point of view, given the draft capital and options available on the board, rather than evaluating talent alone. This is an important distinction because I'm not simply ranking players. 

For example, Kyle Pitts is a good player, but the decision to draft him No. 4 overall in 2021 was objectively not a good one considering the next six players off the board were Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Penei Sewell, Jaycee Horn, Patrick Surtain II and DeVonta Smith.

Obviously, with the 2026 draft class yet to play a snap in the NFL, it was not included. Even the 2025 class is difficult to rank this early in their careers, with very few players appearing at either edge of the spectrum. Let's get to the rankings first and then break them down team by team to evaluate how each franchise did over that span.

Top third: Best first-round decisions

Middle third: Solid picks, mixed returns and incomplete grades

Bottom third: Most disappointing first-round decisions

Arizona Cardinals (7 picks)

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 3

This is unfortunately how a franchise becomes a perennial bottom-feeder. The Cardinals have drafted one Pro Bowl player this decade in second-round tight end Trey McBride, and half of their first-rounders aren't even starters anymore. That's a difficult mess to overcome in one of the best divisions in the NFL.

Atlanta Falcons

• Top third: 4
• Middle third: 0
• Bottom third: 3

Big hits with glaring holes is very much the story of the Falcons this decade. No hole has proven more difficult to overcome than the one Matt Ryan left at quarterback after the 2021 season. They tried to solve it in the loaded 2024 draft by taking Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall, but his checking in at No. 154 in these rankings tells you how that's gone. They've had a different leading passer every year since and look poised to do it for a fifth straight season with Tua Tagovailoa coming over from Miami this offseason.

Baltimore Ravens

• Top third: 3
• Middle third: 5
• Bottom third: 0

The Ravens have been one of the NFL's best-run franchises since their inception, and that hasn't changed even after Ozzie Newsome retired in 2018. Eric DeCosta has been solid, albeit unspectacular, in his role as GM ever since. His eight first-round selections without a single one in the bottom third of this list are the most of any team.

Buffalo Bills

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 1

The Bills may have the most wins of any team this decade, but their recent first-rounders haven't gotten them there. That said, the jury is still very much out on Maxwell Hairston and, to a degree, Dalton Kincaid. Maybe that's why Brandon Beane survived what many thought would be a complete front-office overhaul after another divisional-round exit.

Carolina Panthers

• Top third: 2
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 2

A sad fact of the Panthers' draft track record this decade is that they've made an NFL-leading five top-eight picks over that span. Their only non-premium pick was also one of the worst first-rounders in terms of true impact, as Xavier Legette has already been relegated to backup status.

Chicago Bears

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 2

Caleb Williams' inclusion in the bottom third of this list may be controversial, but through two seasons, he's been outplayed by both quarterbacks selected immediately after him despite having arguably the best supporting cast. I would be more receptive to arguments that Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze are too low. I'd even agree that they're both likely to end up higher if we redo this exercise in a couple of years. Because both were premium picks with relatively modest production, though, I couldn't justify ranking them higher at this point.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Top third: 3
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 1

While the Bengals' draft track record has rightfully drawn criticism of late, they started the decade with two franchise-changing picks in back-to-back drafts. The duo of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase has dragged one of the most underachieving franchises in sports to the forefront of the national conversation more often than not over the past half-decade. The Achilles' heel for Duke Tobin in the draft this decade has been the defensive side of the ball, where the Bengals simply can't find consistent quality starters.

Cleveland Browns

• Top third: 0
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 1

The Browns didn't have a first-rounder from 2022-24, which made life difficult for GM Andrew Berry, especially with his first two first-rounders being misses. The Jedrick Wills pick is particularly haunting given that the best left tackle in the NFL, Tristan Wirfs, was still on the board. So far, though, Berry doesn't seem to have many regrets about passing on Travis Hunter, as it ultimately netted them both Mason Graham and KC Concepcion.

Dallas Cowboys

• Top third: 4
• Middle third: 0
• Bottom third: 2

The Cowboys get the first round right more often than not. That's partly because they are one of the NFL's most willing franchises to take offensive linemen, specifically on the interior, that highly. It wasn't their offensive line picks, however, that earned them the distinction of being the only team with two of the top 10 decisions on this list. The CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons selections were easily two of the best non-top-10 picks this decade.

Denver Broncos

• Top third: 2
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 0

The Russell Wilson trade meant GM George Paton had fewer than his share of first-rounders, but he's used them well. Bo Nix and Patrick Surtain II have turned out as well as, if not better than, anyone could have hoped at the time. And Denver's lowest-rated pick of the bunch, Jerry Jeudy, was John Elway's parting gift as GM.

Detroit Lions

• Top third: 3
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 3

One of the underrated aspects of Brad Holmes' rampant success as GM has simply been volume. The Lions' eight first-rounders from 2020-25 were the second-most in the NFL, and there's only one true eyesore of the bunch in Terrion Arnold. Of course, this analysis also includes the disastrous Bob Quinn era, which featured the worst non-quarterback draft pick on this list in Jeff Okudah.

Green Bay Packers

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 4
• Bottom third: 2

The Packers' first-round track record under Brian Gutekunst features one Jordan Love heat check and then a lot of meh. I'm not even sure the Packers know exactly what they have yet in the likes of Devonte Wyatt, Lukas Van Ness, Jordan Morgan and Matthew Golden. They do, however, know what they had in Quay Walker and Eric Stokes, which amounted to a resounding plea from Packers fans to stop drafting Georgia defenders.

Houston Texans

• Top third: 3
• Middle third: 0
• Bottom third: 1

It obviously helps your hit rate to have three of your four first-rounders be top-three picks, but Nick Caserio couldn't have done much better than C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. Those three picks have set the stage for three straight playoff seasons. It's the other first-round pick, though, that I'm sure Caserio would prefer people forget.

Indianapolis Colts

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 1
• Bottom third: 2

Chris Ballard's first-round draft track record matches the lackluster state of the Colts franchise over that span. He hit a home run with Tyler Warren, but at a relatively low-value position. He also had a catastrophic miss in Anthony Richardson at the most valuable position in the NFL. Ultimately, Ballard's constant struggles at quarterback and edge rusher have defined his GM tenure. His vaunted 2018 draft class feels like a lifetime ago for Colts fans.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 5
• Bottom third: 3

Jags fans have been through enough that I don't have to rehash all nine first-rounders here. Even their biggest hit in Trevor Lawrence has been a disappointment relative to expectations. The two guys who could really turn this thing around, Brian Thomas Jr. and Anton Harrison, have both flashed big-time talent throughout their careers, but consistency will determine whether they reach the top third by the time their rookie contracts are up.

Kansas City Chiefs

• Top third: 3
• Middle third: 1
• Bottom third: 2

It should be hard to find elite players without a single pick inside the top 20 from 2020-25, but the Chiefs did just that with Trent McDuffie and maybe Josh Simmons as well. GM Brett Veach has shown he's far more than a one-trick pony who pushed for Patrick Mahomes. He's consistently found value at every stage of the draft.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 1
• Bottom third: 4

Not only do the Raiders have the highest rate of picks in the bottom third, but they also had three of the bottom 15 on this list. That's almost hard to do. Tyree Wilson, Alex Leatherwood and Damon Arnette were all unplayably bad during their time with the Silver and Black, with none making it to Year 4.

Los Angeles Chargers

• Top third: 3
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 2

While Tom Telesco had his faults as the former GM, he set the Chargers up for long-term success in back-to-back drafts when he landed Justin Herbert and Rashawn Slater. When that duo has been healthy, the Chargers' offense has been difficult to stop, even more so after the addition of Joe Alt in 2024. If Omarion Hampton and Quentin Johnston can play their way inside the top 100 on this list in 2026, the Chargers should have a top-five offense in the league.

Los Angeles Rams

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 0
• Bottom third: 0

The Rams' analysis is easily the funniest of any in the NFL. They had only one first-round pick from 2020-25, and it was one of the best picks over that span, with Jared Verse checking in at No. 11 out of 191. In an ironic twist of fate, he's no longer on the Rams after the Myles Garrett trade this offseason. The Rams' attitude toward the draft is truly one of one.

Miami Dolphins

• Top third: 2
• Middle third: 4
• Bottom third: 1

You don't need much more explanation for why the Dolphins are where they are than the fact that their only two top-100 draft picks on this list are both no longer with the team. What Chris Grier did toward the end of his GM tenure should be studied by owners as an example of what not to allow a GM to do when he's trying to save his job.

Minnesota Vikings

• Top third: 2
• Middle third: 3
• Bottom third: 3

Former CBS colleague Rick Spielman went out with a bang. His final two drafts featured the third-best pick of the decade in Justin Jefferson and the 13th in Christian Darrisaw. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah couldn't hold a candle to that, failing to make a single upper-third pick during his tenure before being fired.

New England Patriots

• Top third: 2
• Middle third: 1
• Bottom third: 2

I'll address what I assume will be the Patriots' most controversial ranking, with Will Campbell already falling into the bottom third. For a team that desperately wanted a left tackle, the most generous reading of his rookie season puts him as the third-best tackle in the 2025 draft class despite being the first one taken. If you factor in projectable traits, he could realistically be the last of the five first-round offensive tackles taken in a redraft. Ultimately, it doesn't matter much because Drake Maye comes in at No. 2 on this list with a real argument to eventually be No. 1.

New Orleans Saints

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 3
• Bottom third: 3

As big a story as Mickey Loomis' inability to hit on a quarterback in the post-Drew Brees era has been, so has his inability to recreate the hot hand he had drafting in the 2010s. There was a lot of nothing from 2020-24, with Chris Olave the only pick to make a significant impact, and that cost a third- and fourth-round pick as well. That changed with Kelvin Banks Jr. last year, and Saints fans are hoping Jordyn Tyson is more of the same.

New York Giants

• Top third: 4
• Middle third: 0
• Bottom third: 4

There's been no in-between for the Giants this decade. They've either nabbed franchise cornerstones or had complete whiffs. Now they just need those cornerstones to stay healthy. Jaxson Dart, Andrew Thomas and Malik Nabers have had their careers marred by injuries to date. If all are healthy this season, the Giants should finally make the leap to playoff contention.

New York Jets

• Top third: 3
• Middle third: 4
• Bottom third: 2

Ultimately, it was the second-worst pick of the decade in Zach Wilson that did former GM Joe Douglas in. His draft track record would look a lot rosier, though, if injuries hadn't decimated his offensive line selections. Mekhi Becton looked like a future Pro Bowler as a rookie before suffering a catastrophic knee injury. Alijah Vera-Tucker was similarly talented but dealt with injuries every year of his career. Both likely would have been top-third picks if injuries hadn't struck.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Top third: 4
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 1

Howie Roseman has shaken off the humiliation of taking Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson, compiling one of the best draft track records in the NFL since. All six picks since then made the top 80 on this list.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Top third: 0
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 3

The Steelers are very much still coasting off the Kevin Colbert era, with players like T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward anchoring the defense. Even putting Derrick Harmon and Troy Fautanu in the middle third at this point in their careers is almost a placeholder, as neither has proven to be a consistently quality starter yet. No wonder the Steelers feel like the oldest team in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 1
• Bottom third: 3

John Lynch's late-round wizardry and Kyle Shanahan's play calling have smoothed over an ugly draft track record this decade. Considering what it took to trade up for Trey Lance, his selection goes down as the worst from 2020-25. There's no telling what a team that went to the NFC Championship Game in 2022 and the Super Bowl in 2023 could have done if it had used its 2021 first-round pick, 2022 first- and third-round picks and 2023 first-round pick differently.

Seattle Seahawks

• Top third: 4
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 0

The Seahawks are the only team with multiple first-rounders this decade not to have a single one outside the top 90. That's how you build a Super Bowl-winning juggernaut. John Schneider, take a bow.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Top third: 2
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 1

While he fell into their lap, Tristan Wirfs is easily the best value pick among first-round offensive linemen this decade. I'd argue his unlikely immediate impact made the difference in the Bucs becoming Super Bowl champions in 2020.

Tennessee Titans

• Top third: 0
• Middle third: 3
• Bottom third: 3

While things have turned around of late, the Titans' decade started with one of the most embarrassing draft runs in NFL history. They kicked it off by drafting Georgia offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson, who had no intention of actually playing football and left the team as a rookie. They followed that by buying a lemon in Caleb Farley, whose deteriorating back was well known before the draft. Then, to cap it off, they traded away A.J. Brown and used the draft capital on Treylon Burks, a receiver who resembled Brown in physical stature, but the comparisons stopped there. Please save Titans fans, Cam Ward.

Washington Commanders

• Top third: 1
• Middle third: 2
• Bottom third: 3

Six picks, three team names and one Jayden Daniels saving the Commanders from still being in the proverbial NFL gutter. The Martin Mayhew era will go down as one of the worst drafting stretches of all time. From 2021-23, he made three massive reaches in the first round with Jamin Davis, Jahan Dotson and Emmanuel Forbes. All crashed and burned spectacularly, with none even making it to Year 4 with the Commanders.