Fantasy football rankings Week 1: Dave Richard makes tough decisions who to start, sit and flex

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys on the bench.

It's too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which will be tough, but we can make some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decision-making.

Let's go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Bijan Robinson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

Dave Richard's Week 1 rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST

All lines via Caesars Sportsbook

The Seahawks effectively replaced Kenneth Walker III with first-round rookie Jadarian Price. Walker had an amazing game against the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but I wouldn't expect Price in his first NFL game to experience even remotely the same success against a Patriots defense playing its first game of the year, not its 21st. Recent reports have suggested George Holani will handle the "Zach Charbonnet role" on passing downs and near the goal line. If true, Price's value will be tied to his yardage, which would be limited unless the Seahawks build a nice lead or if he breaks a few runs. I'd be cautious with Price; Holani is worth a stash. 

Meanwhile, the Patriots upgraded their receiving corps with the acquisitions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, both of whom figure to enhance Drake Maye's numbers substantially. I get that the Seahawks' defense is very good, but personnel changes in the secondary could make them susceptible to big completions. The Seahawks probably won't change their defensive identity much and will stick with their strong pass rush in front of heavy zone coverage (an 80%-plus rate in all but five games last year, including the Super Bowl). That's nothing to fear for Maye, whose offensive line should be much better, not to mention healthier than it was back in February.

If there's a concern, it's that Brown saw a lot of zone coverage in Philadelphia, and his efficiency in things like yards per route run and explosive play rate were fine, but nowhere near as good as against man-to-man. Same thing for Doubs. Seattle mixed their pre-garbage time coverages between Cover-6 and Cover-3, the latter of which Brown (and Doubs) have a great track record against -- some of Brown's best splits over the past two seasons have come against Cover-3, including 2.49 yards per route run over 313 routes. Start him with No. 2 WR expectations, and expect a good game from Maye. 

• MUST-STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, A.J. Brown
• STARTS: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Seahawks DST, Patriots DST 
• FLEX: Jadarian Price
• SITS: Sam Darnold, George Holani (stash), Romeo Doubs, Hunter Henry (desperation starter), TreVeyon Henderson, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, A.J. Barner

The Rams are flying into Australia 16 hours before kickoff, while the 49ers spent the week there acclimating to the time change. According to experts, what the Rams did is not crazy. They did something very similar for their trip to London last season and whooped the Jaguars. 

On paper, the Rams are superior not just to the 49ers but to pretty much everybody. Three of the last four meetings between these teams have been high scoring (at least 49 points), and three of the last four have been decided by one score. I'd be worried about the efficiency of both run games in this matchup: The 49ers added D-tackle Osa Odighizuwa and have Fred Warner back at full health, while the Rams' offseason addition of Myles Garrett obviously takes their defense to a new level. There's probably a decent edge for the Rams' offensive line, but don't be so sure Kyren Williams will handle roughly 65% of the snaps like he did last year, particularly after backup Blake Corum made improvements in his agility and quickness this offseason. 

Garrett is the headline acquisition for the Rams defense this week (Aaron Donald will follow), but don't forget about ex-Chiefs cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson also joining the unit. That should make coverage tighter, be it in man-to-man or zone (expect the Rams to play plenty of zone). Mike Evans' efficiency really hit the skids in 2025 -- his yards per target cratered to 5.9, his yards per target equally sank to 1.62, and his explosive catch rate nearly sliced in half to 9.7% (much better against zone than man, which is solid for this matchup). We know he's already battled soft-tissue injuries this summer even if he's downplayed them. While I'd expect the 49ers to throw a bunch, I might temper expectations for Evans this week, with more favorable matchups in Weeks 2 and 3 to come.  

• MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, Rams DST
• STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy, Davante Adams, George Kittle, Kyren Williams
• FLEX: Mike Evans
• SITS: Deebo Samuel and De'Zhaun Stribling (desperation flexes), Blake Corum (desperation non-PPR flex), all Rams TEs, 49ers DST

There are real questions about the Lions' defense. Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and Jack Campbell are all good, but the entire secondary figures to be challenged with both starting safeties on the shelf and one of last year's starting cornerbacks no longer on the team. The Lions were league-average in pass-rush pressure rate and played the second-most man-to-man coverage of any defense, though the latter might have to change given the state of the secondary. Facing what's expected to remain a fast-paced Saints offense with an improved run game is a tough Week 1 draw for the Lions, opening the door for Chris Olave to thrive and Travis Etienne to get plenty of work. Juwan Johnson should see favorable man-to-man matchups in the middle of the field, but his efficiency was considerably better against zone. 

New Orleans didn't make any major improvements to their defense other than stealing linebacker Kaden Elliss away from the Falcons. They're returning Chase Young and Cam Jordan as their top pass rushers a year after they were a shade below league average in pass rush pressure rate and league average in blitz rate -- and 10th in overall sacks. It'll be interesting to see how the Lions' reconfigured offensive line holds up with Penei Sewell at left tackle and impressive rookie Blake Miller at right tackle. If Detroit's defense can't hold back the Saints' offense, Jared Goff should have the protection needed to attack downfield against this zone-heavy, pressure-modest defense. Goff was top 10 in EPA per dropback, completion rate, yards per attempt, and success rate among qualifying QBs versus zone coverage last year. Of note: Jahmyr Gibbs was Goff's most frequent target against zone coverage last year (27.2% target per route run rate) followed by Amon-Ra St. Brown (27.1%) and Sam LaPorta (22.3%). Jameson Williams was next up among Lions players at 16.4%. You'll start them all, but Williams carries the most risk. 

• MUST-STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
• STARTS: Jared Goff, Chris Olave, Travis Etienne, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta
• SITS: Tyler Shough, Juwan Johnson (low-end starter), Devaughn Vele, both DSTs

I would caution those who are rushing to start Baker Mayfield, assuming it's a pushover matchup -- Cincinnati acquired big D-tackle Dexter Lawrence and paired him with Jonathan Allen and edge rusher Boye Mafe. At minimum, the Bengals will be tougher to run on between the tackles. They also have a solid secondary. Meanwhile, there are mild questions about Mayfield's pass protection and certainly larger questions about Mayfield's receiving corps. We saw what a hamstring injury did to Emeka Egbuka's numbers last season, even with good volume -- could his lingering toe problem have a similar effect? How effective will Jalen McMillan and Ted Hurst be? Last note: The Bengals played a lot of Cover-1 last year, especially on third downs. Some of Mayfield's worst metrics in 2025 came against Cover-1, including a 52.4% completion rate, a 20% off-target rate, and a meek 5.0 yards per attempt rate. I think Mayfield can be good, just not top-10 good. 

• MUST-STARTS: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown
• STARTS: Bucky Irving (No. 2 RB), Chris Godwin (PPR start)
• FLEX: Emeka Egbuka, Kenneth Gainwell (PPR) 
• SITS: Baker Mayfield (borderline starter), Jalen McMillan, Ted Hurst, Cade Otton, Erick All, Samaje Perine, both DSTs

New Ravens coach and defensive boss Jesse Minter deployed the second-highest rate of zone coverage in 2025, including the sixth-most Cover-3 and fourth-most Cover-4, usually with an extra defensive back. He also blitzed at the third-lowest rate. But there was one game last year where he was pulverized for doing these things: against the Colts in a 38-24 loss in Week 7. Minter can adapt this time around by using bigger defensive players (Calais Campbell comes to mind) and assigning Kyle Hamilton to hover near Tyler Warren. But zone coverage should still be on the menu, and Jones was awesome against zone coverage in 2025 with Tyler Warren and Josh Downs landing the highest target per route run rates over the course of the season (Downs also had a high target rate against man coverage). I'd expect both of them to see a lot of volume again here, though the shifty Downs could be the biggest winner in terms of matchup.  

One last point: Colts playcaller Lou Anarumo has faced Lamar Jackson eight times while with the Bengals. Jackson racked up at least 25.1 Fantasy points (six-point passing) in six of the eight, including two 40-burgers in 2024. Mark Andrews had at least 9.5 PPR points in each of those games. Even with some great players in his defense, such as Sauce Gardner, the new wrinkles in Baltimore's offense under Declan Doyle, combined with Jackson's experience against Anarumo, should yield some big-time Fantasy points for Baltimore. 

• MUST-STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry
• STARTS: Zay Flowers, Tyler Warren
• FLEX: Josh Downs (high-end flex)
• SITS: Daniel Jones, Alec Pierce, Mark Andrews (borderline starter), Keenan Allen, Justice Hill, both DSTs

It's a pretty safe guess that the Jaguars defense will focus on the run and dabble in some man-to-man coverage against a weak Browns pass game. Maybe Cleveland can spread them out with quick-game throws to guys like Harold Fannin, KC Concepcion, and even Quinshon Judkins, but it would be surprising if the upstart Jacksonville defense stalled against the Browns. Meanwhile, new Cleveland defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg comes from the Robert Saleh/Gus Bradley coaching tree. It should mean a four-man defensive line with a good amount of zone coverage behind it, perhaps with more two-high safety looks than the Browns have been used to. Trevor Lawrence was good against all sorts of coverages but less explosive against zone coverage, and, like most QBs, better when not under pressure. Obviously, the Browns' pass rush won't be the same without Myles Garrett there, and the Jacksonville O-line appears to be better than it was last year. Parker Washington had the highest target per route run rate (22.1%) of any Jaguar last season against zone coverage (24.7% from Week 7 on). If the game gets one-sided, Bhayshul Tuten could see a lot of carries and potentially rush for 100 yards.   

• STARTS: Trevor Lawrence, Quinshon Judkins, Parker Washington, Harold Fannin Jr., Jaguars DST
• FLEX: Brian Thomas Jr., Bhayshul Tuten, KC Concepcion (PPR only), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (as long as LeQuint Allen is out)
• SITS: Deshaun Watson, Jakobi Meyers (desperation starter), Brenton Strange, Denzel Boston, Jerry Jeudy, Dylan Sampson, Browns DST

Both teams did a lot to improve their defenses this offseason, with the Titans focusing on beefing up their front seven and the Jets not only adding pass-rush help but also several middle- and back-end defenders familiar with the new scheme Aaron Glenn wants to run. But the one thing the Titans did not do well enough is improve their offensive line, and I'm going to guess that impacts them in this game and maybe every game. New York should have enough to slam on the run with Demario Davis behind their improved D-line and get to Cam Ward with rookie first-rounder David Bailey. That should be enough for New York to actually play with a lead and give Breece Hall a chance at close to 20 touches. 

• MUST-STARTS: Garrett Wilson
• STARTS: Breece Hall
• FLEX: Wan'Dale Robinson (PPR), Tony Pollard, Carnell Tate
• SITS: Geno Smith, Cam Ward, Mason Taylor (stash), Adonai Mitchell (deep stash), Calvin Ridley, Gunnar Helm, Braelon Allen, Tyjae Spears (stash), both DSTs (Jets are a sleeper for this week only)

You'd have to go back to December of 2022 to find the last game DJ Moore lined up in the slot more than 44% of the time in. If he's going to be cast primarily as an outside receiver in the Bills offense, then odds are he'll run into either of the Texans tough cornerbacks. Just eight WRs had 15-plus PPR points (and 10 had 13-plus) against Houston in 18 total games in 2025. Of the eight, four lined up wide on more than 80% of their snaps. When Khalil Shakir had an 8-110-0 stat line against the Texans, he did so lined up in the slot on more than 70% of his snaps. Moore has a newfound No. 1 receiver role with Josh Allen, but this isn't the week to expect big numbers. In fact, I might expect Dalton Kincaid to see a lot more attention because he'll work the middle of the field against the Texans' zone-leaning pass defense. 

Buffalo was either really good or really bad at stopping the run last year, depending on the game and frankly, the opponent. Late in the year, the Jets, Brown, and, curiously, the Eagles all struggled to create explosive runs or even average 3.8 yards per rush. However, the Broncos, Jaguars and Patriots not only created multiple explosive runs but averaged anywhere from 4.1 to 9.9 yards per rush. Houston should involve more zone-scheme runs, and the Bills struggled against that scheme a season ago, letting up 5.0 yards per rush and a 10.5% explosive rush rate. I'm not sure if changing to a 3-4 front or replacing Joey Bosa, Tre'Davious White, and Matt Milano will suddenly cure these ills, but this is an interesting first test. This could be a decent chance for David Montgomery to start the year strong. 

• MUST-STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook, Nico Collins
• STARTS: David Montgomery (No. 2 RB), Dalton Kincaid (low-end starter), Texans DST, Bills DST (borderline starter)
• FLEX: DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir (deep-league flex)
• SITS: C.J. Stroud, Kayshon Boutte (stash), Dalton Schultz, Woody Marks, Ray Davis

Atlanta's defense will begin the season with 33-year-old edge Za'Darius Smith and big D-tackle Gervon Dexter as their top pass rush weapons. Dexter isn't bad -- he's had 11 sacks in his past two seasons in Chicago, but Smith has played 13 games over the past two seasons and has 5.5 sacks. This is among the easiest of matchups for the Steelers and their reconfigured offensive line to draw. Aaron Rodgers should have enough time to attack further than seven yards downfield and run Mike McCarthy's offense like he used to back in their Green Bay days. And because the Steelers defense should be ready to attack Tua Tagovailoa under center for the Falcons, we could be staring at a favorable game script for both Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle. Both running backs were close in a slew of rushing and receiving metrics over the past two seasons, but Dowdle dominated Warren in inside-the-5 success rate and therefore figures to be the better back for that situation. 

• MUST-STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
• STARTS: Kyle Pitts, DK Metcalf, Steelers DST
• FLEX: Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle (non-PPR), Michael Pittman (PPR)
• SITS: Aaron Rodgers (decent in 2QB leagues), Tua Tagovailoa, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Germie Bernard, Roman Wilson, Falcons DST

How effective will the Panthers' run game be? How much running will they be able to cram into the game? The good news is that Carolina's interior offensive line should be good versus a Bears defense that has a lot of new faces up the middle of its defense, from D-tackle to middle linebacker to both safety spots. Sticking with the run is a different story -- if Chicago's offense comes out hot, then there will be pressure on the Panthers to throw to stay in the game. If Chicago's offense doesn't come out hot, then the Panthers can lean on the run, play at a slow pace, and potentially cruise to a win. Jonathon Brooks is expected to play, will get some targets, and could even work at the goal line. But Dave Canales could also emphasize limiting his touches in his first game since December 2024. This matchup isn't bad, but without assurances that Brooks will absolutely play at the goal line, he's risky. 

Carolina's defensive talent improved this offseason, but their scheme figures to remain the same. They played the most zone coverage of any defense in 2025 (86.3% of snaps) and specialized in Cover-3 shells, a staple under playcaller Ejiro Evero. Where they're better is at linebacker with veteran additions Devin Lloyd and Bobby Okereke, and at pass rush with Jaelan Phillips adding some juice. Their secondary is also headlined by quality outside cornerback Jaycee Horn, who may be assigned to Rome Odunze. This coverage specifically opens the door for Luther Burden III to take on a sizable target share; in limited time last year he led all Bears in target per route run versus zone coverage with a 25.7% share from Caleb Williams, and his rate specifically against Cover-3 was an insane 29.1% rate with 3.94 yards per route run (second-best among all qualifying WRs!), 9.3 yards after catch per reception (also second-best) and 13.6 yards per target. That's really encouraging for the Week 1 matchup. 

• MUST-STARTS: Colston Loveland
• STARTS: Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift, Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden III 
• FLEX: Jonathon Brooks, Rome Odunze, Jalen Coker (PPR)
• SITS: Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, A.J. Dillon, both DSTs

On the one hand, new Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon used to coach Kyler Murray and knows the quarterback's tendencies from years of practicing against him. On the other hand, the Packers defense will play without Micah Parsons for the next four weeks and can be exploited through the air if they can't get to Murray. At the bare minimum, bank on the Packers playing a lot of zone, which is both a staple of Gannon's playcalling and what defenses typically run against Murray. In his past four seasons (40 games), Murray has a 1.1% TD rate against all zone coverages, dead-last among all qualifying quarterbacks. Murray has also struggled to throw downfield, completing 48.9% of his passes on throws of 10-plus air yards versus zone coverage. However, his numbers are nominally better when he's not pressured; the Packers pass rush is arguably the thinnest unit in the league, and the Vikings offensive line should be considerably improved from last year. I normally try to avoid players facing their former defensive-minded coaches, but this could be a solid game for Murray because of the Packers' personnel shortcomings. 

• MUST-STARTS: Justin Jefferson
• STARTS: Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, 
• FLEX: MarShawn Lloyd, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Jordan Mason
• SITS: Kyler Murray (borderline starter), Jordan Love, Matthew Golden (stash), Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Christopher Brooks, Vikings DST, Packers DST 

Brock Bowers is going to get a ton of work, but someone else is going to have to step up and help in the passing game. My money's on Tre Tucker getting the chance to step up. He's smaller than you'd like your receivers to be, but he's shifty and can be more than just a downfield guy like he's been so far in his career. He even recently spoke about improving his option route running to earn more targets by staying in sync with his quarterbacks. The matchup is phenomenal: Miami's secondary will have a target on their collective backs, given they don't have any established playmakers. If the Raiders' offensive line pass protection meets expectations, I'd expect the offense to pull off wins downfield. Tucker might be a low-end flex, but still should at least be rostered. 

• MUST-STARTS: Brock Bowers, De'Von Achane
• STARTS: Ashton Jeanty 
• FLEX: Tre Tucker (low-end flex), Malik Washington (low-end PPR flex)
• SITS: Malik Willis (big-time stash), Kirk Cousins, Greg Dulcich (desperation starter), Mike Washington Jr. (stash), Chris Bell (deep league stash), Caleb Douglas, Michael Mayer, Jalen Nailor, both DSTs

L.A.'s defense will be run by Chris O'Leary, a Jesse Minter disciple who helped Western Michigan's defense to astounding heights last season and was with the Chargers' safeties in 2024. I would expect the Chargers to stay the same defensively: a lot of zone coverage, not much blitzing, plenty of sacks anyway. Cornerback Donte Jackson has emerged as a rising player and should improve the coverage, but it's Dalvin Tomlinson and Ahkeem Mesidor adding to a stout D-line and pass rush unit, respectively, that could really improve the whole squad. Bank on the Cardinals attacking the middle of the field through the air and utilizing Jeremiyah Love in space on quick throws. It's their best chance to keep the game close. Note: Eight receivers had 15-plus PPR points against the Chargers last year, but seven of them needed at least eight targets to do it. 

• MUST-STARTS: Justin Herbert, Trey McBride
• STARTS: Omarion Hampton, Jeremiyah Love, Ladd McConkey, Chargers DST (low-end DST)
• FLEX: Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Quentin Johnston
• SITS: Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Allgeier, Keaton Mitchell, all Chargers TEs, Cardinals DST

The expectation is that the Commanders' new offense will be a West Coast offense in the mold of what Ben Johnson ran in Detroit. That's what new playcaller David Blough experienced. That should mean a lot of motion, misdirection, play action, rollouts, and timed routes designed to make life easy for Jayden Daniels. That might also mean fewer designed runs by Daniels, but the offensive line's ability to protect him could lead to more improvisational running because he's pressured. Philadelphia's interior D-line will obviously be a problem, but not having Jonathan Greenard coming off the edge will weaken them some, especially since the Eagles have not been a blitz-heavy defense under Vic Fangio (second-lowest blitz rate last year). I wouldn't be surprised if the Commanders worked around the big fellas up front and attacked the edges, both in the run game with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and in the pass game by getting Daniels on the move.  

• MUST-STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith
• STARTS: Terry McLaurin, Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST
• FLEX: Stefon Diggs (PPR), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (non-PPR flex)
• SITS: Dontayvion Wicks (desperation start), Makai Lemon (stash), Rachaad White (desperation PPR RB), Tank Bigsby, Chig Okonkwo, Commanders DST

Dallas' defense has six new defensive starters -- three in the front seven, including Rashan Gary, and three in the secondary, including first-round pick defensive back Caleb Downs. But their best addition might be defensive coordinator Christian Parker, a Vic Fangio disciple known for improving secondary play in both Denver and Philadelphia. But unlike Fangio, Parker plans to employ a 3-4 front in Dallas and may blitz much more often than Fangio did, and there's excitement about the number of coverage disguises he'll have his players pull off post-snap. That spells bad news for a young quarterback with 412 career dropbacks in Jaxson Dart. It's wrong to just assume Dallas' defense will be worlds better than last year, but I wouldn't expect Dart and the Giants to mow them down. It could mean a lot of short, safe passes underneath to Isaiah Likely, who stood out as a regular target for Dart this summer. That also goes for the Giants' run game, which should be led by Cam Skattebo, but we don't know how much work he'll get. 

• MUST-STARTS: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens
• STARTS: Javonte Williams, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers (lower expectations), Isaiah Likely
• SITS: Jaxson Dart, Jake Ferguson (low-end starter), all other Giants RBs, Ryan Flournoy, Malachi Fields, Darnell Mooney, Cowboys DST (sneaky sleeper), Giants DST

In their first meeting last year, the Chiefs opted to play more zone coverage but still sent a decent amount of blitzes and got five sacks. They're hoping for the same kind of luck here, probably with just as much zone coverage. I'm curious if L'Jarius Sneed bounces back as their slot corner. I'm obviously intrigued by rookie corner Mansoor Delane, but I'm especially wondering if the Chiefs' pass rush will be as effective. All of Bo Nix's metrics, including EPA per dropback, completion rate, catchable throw rate, and yards per attempt, nosedived when pressured by the Chiefs in two games in 2025. He completed one touchdown over 75 pass attempts in two games. Pat Bryant may wind up seeing Sneed the most in the slot, opening up Jaylen Waddle to work against either Delane or Nohl Williams, who was good over 272 coverage snaps last year. Denver specifically played up-tempo through the first three quarters in their first meeting in part to negate the pass rush. I'd suspect they try something similar here to start the game, meaning a lot of quick-game throws to the receivers. I like Waddle's chances to break a big play if that's going to happen, and I think there's room for Nix to have a solid game, not a blow-up spot. 

In three career games against the Broncos, Rashee Rice has never had more than six catches, never had more than 72 yards, and has never scored. Two of the games, including the 72-yarder, came in 2023; the other was in November 2025 when he played 45 snaps and turned in a 6-38-0 stat line despite Broncos shut-down corner Pat Surtain missing the game. He nearly scored twice in that one, including falling a yard shy of the end zone on a goal-to-go pop pass. I bring it all up because Rice may draw Surtain in coverage frequently when he lines up outside, and the number of quick screen passes that he normally gets could fade now that the Chiefs have a legit running back in Kenneth Walker III, who will not only handle the bulk of the carries but get quick screen targets as Rice gets. You'll probably start Rice no matter what, but I'd expect a modest stat line. 

In fact, I can't help but wonder whether Travis Kelce also cuts into Rice's target share, as he did in November of 2025. Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga was targeted a fair amount by the Chiefs, and Kelce benefited when Hufanga blew a tackle attempt that led to a 21-yard touchdown. Kelce has seen at least nine targets in four of his past five against the Broncos, the outlier being last Christmas' 5-36-0 stat line on six targets from Chris Oladokun. He should be good for double-digit PPR points in Week 1. 

And finally, as if it wasn't hard enough to trust Mahomes in his first game back since reconstructive knee surgery, please note that Mahomes has not had more than 19.3 Fantasy points (six-point passing) in any of the four games against the Broncos since Sean Payton became their head coach. Mahomes has thrown at least 38 pass attempts each of those four and has totaled three passing scores and four interceptions.  

• MUST-STARTS: Kenneth Walker III
• STARTS: Jaylen Waddle, Rashee Rice (No. 2 WR), J.K. Dobbins, Travis Kelce (borderline starter), Broncos DST
• FLEX: Courtland Sutton
• SITS: Bo Nix (borderline starter), Patrick Mahomes, Pat Bryant, R.J. Harvey (desperation PPR start), Evan Engram, Xavier Worthy, Jonah Coleman (stash), Emmett Johnson (stash), Chiefs DST (borderline starter)